UPDATED: Fantasy Football 2023 Draft Strategies, First Five Rounds from Picks 10-11-12
Editor’s note: Kyle Wood’s four-part series on fantasy draft strategy based on where you’re drafting has been very popular, so we asked Kyle to add a few updates to account for changes in average draft position since these stories were originally published.
Just like every other draft position grouping, there are pros and cons to having a late pick. But selecting from these particular positions — the 10, 11 and 12 slots — can feel especially daunting.
You will miss out on the players who are in the conversation for 1.01, the top overall pick. Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase and Christian McCaffrey will be long gone. You might even see an Austin Ekeler or a Travis Kelce slide a pick or two and get your hopes up only to see them drafted right before you’re on the clock. However, this position comes with less pressure than say, the 1.01, and it offers you two swings at top-15 players, a luxury not available to other managers.
Here are the overall spots you’ll be drafting if you have the 10th, 11th or 12th picks.
This is the final installment of SI’s fantasy football draft strategy series, which is part of our 2023 draft kit. Four different pick groupings have been covered to prepare you to maneuver through the early rounds from whichever draft slot you’re assigned.
Draft Slot Strategies
Picks: 1-2-3 | 4-5-6 | 7-8-9
(Note: The ADP data and draft strategy advice is intended for 12-team, PPR leagues.)
Drafting in Rounds 1 and 2
UPDATE: The tail end of the first round is the only position where you can pair a top-six running back with a top-six receiver to begin your draft. Picks 10-12 by current ADP are Stefon Diggs, Nick Chubb and CeeDee Lamb and 13-15 is Davante Adams, A.J. Brown and Patrick Mahomes. The worst finish of any of those players last season was Diggs, who was WR7.
I personally like the idea of landing a high-end running back and receiver, but there’s nothing wrong with making one of those positions a strength. How about a Chubb-Derrick Henry start? That’s 600 touches guaranteed. Or what about Lamb-Adams? 200 combined catches sounds good to me.
The back of the first round is all about upside. From these spots, you’re looking at Bijan Robinson, CeeDee Lamb and Amon-Ra St. Brown, based on current average draft position (ADP) data. All of these players are strong building blocks even if they don’t have the same brand appeal as some other first-round picks.
Robinson’s body of work at Texas and the history of running backs drafted in the top 10 are both good indicators that he’ll be able to produce in his first year in Atlanta — Michael Fabiano made the case for Robinson as a top-eight pick earlier in the offseason.
CeeDee Lamb and Amon-Ra St. Brown are both solid picks at the end of the first round.
As for Lamb and St. Brown, they’re both coming off career-best seasons that translated into top-eight fantasy finishes. They were among the seven pass-catchers who surpassed 100 catches and 145 targets in 2022 and both Lamb and St. Brown remain the unquestioned No. 1 options in their respective offenses.
The first three picks of the second round by ADP at the moment are Garrett Wilson, Davante Adams and Jaylen Waddle. But one of my favorite picks in this round requires a slight reach: Nick Chubb is currently being drafted 16th overall as the RB4 after McCaffrey, Ekeler and Robinson. I would be very pleased to pair a receiver capable of hitting 100 receptions, like Lamb or St. Brown, with a high-floor, reliable back like Chubb, fresh off an RB6 finish with over 1,700 all-purpose yards and 13 total touchdowns.
Another player worth singling out in this area of the draft is Waddle, who was even better last season with Tyreek Hill in the picture. He nearly doubled his yards per catch from 9.7 to 18 and ultimately finished with more yards (and more touchdowns) on fewer catches and targets than he saw as a rookie. Waddle built on his WR13 campaign in 2021 with a WR8 finish last season.
Adams could potentially be a steal at WR10 after three straight top-three finishes. With Jimmy Garoppolo taking over under center for the Raiders, Adams is on to his third quarterback in as many seasons but sheer volume (his 180 targets were the second-most after Jefferson in 2022) should be enough for him to outperform his ADP.
Since your next pick won’t be until the mid-30s, now is the time to call your shot. Maybe that means drafting Saquon Barkley or Jonathan Taylor even though they’re a few spots further down the board. Personally, I recommend diversifying your player portfolio from this position by selecting a running back and a receiver. By the time you’re on the clock again, no WR1s will be left and the top-12 running backs will likely be gone as well, so try to make sure you get one of each here.
Drafting in Rounds 3 and 4
UPDATE: The layoff between picks is long, but by now you have a sturdy foundation that you’re in position to build on in the 30s. As far as quarterbacks go, I prefer Lamar Jackson to Joe Burrow in this range just because of the rushing upside he offers. And for as high as I am on Calvin Ridley, he and Deebo Samuel are the only receivers going in this range and I don’t love either as a WR1. However, I do like the running back talent with players like Joe Mixon, Jahmyr Gibbs and Aaron Jones all available as great RB2 options. That right there is a case for an RB-WR or WR-RB start to your draft.
If you plan on drafting a quarterback early, your opportunity to do so is now. It’s too early to look at Patrick Mahomes in the mid-teens, but he and the rest of the Tier 1 signal-callers will be spoken for by the mid-30s. Enter: Lamar Jackson. He has the same rushing potential as a player like Jalen Hurts, who’s going 11 picks ahead of him, and he’s set up to have a career-best season as a passer.
You can try to wait until the fourth round to select the former MVP, but remember that the managers drafting around you are also subject to the same wait between picks. Quarterback may be on their minds here as well.
If you’re content to wait for a quarterback, consider selecting your WR2 in this range. Amari Cooper, the WR10 in 2022, has an ADP of 35 (WR19). Though if you followed my advice on Chubb, I wouldn’t recommend taking two teammates this early. Calvin Ridley offers more upside, but he’s also a risky pick considering he’s played just five games over the last two seasons.
I like the idea of snagging Jackson and a receiver with this pair of picks or doubling up once again with another receiver and running back.
Pittsburgh’s Najee Harris is a worthy fourth-round pick.
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Najee Harris and Jahmyr Gibbs should both be available in the fourth round. Harris’s rushing efficiency and declining passing game involvement is a concern, but no player in the NFL has as many touches as he does since he entered the league in 2021. Gibbs might only see half as many touches as Harris with David Montgomery in town. Still, he’s sure to be involved as a receiver and he was a more explosive runner in college. I wouldn’t reach much further for a running back (such as Travis Etienne Jr.) because this draft position sets you up well to land one in the next round.
Drafting in Round 5
UPDATE: If you’ve waited on quarterback this long, you’re likely best off waiting another round or two. The late 50s are full of potential flex options as well as some solid tight ends. Right now, you’re looking at Kyle Pitts, Dallas Goedert and J.K. Dobbins in the 58-60 range with still more running backs available in the 60s, such as Cam Akers, Alexander Mattison and his predecessor in Minnesota, Dalvin Cook. ADP-wise, not much has changed other than the tight ends becoming a viable option here. However, finding a third starting-level running back is a tough proposition to pass up in the fifth.
There’s quite a few suitable RB2s projected to still be on the board at this point of the draft. In the late 50s and even into the 60s, you should have your choice of Alexander Mattison, J.K. Dobbins, Miles Sanders and Cam Akers. There are clear cases for and against each: Mattison has performed well in spot starts for Dalvin Cook over the years, but he has never handled a heavy workload; Dobbins averages 5.9 yards per carry for his career, however he already has a long injury history; Sanders has very little competition for carries, though he’s headed to a worse situation; and Akers, who tore it up down the stretch last season for the Rams, has also dealt with injuries in the past.
Pairing one of these backs with a player like Barkley or Chubb should be enough to cobble together respectable backfield production. I prefer the pass-catching upside Sanders has in Carolina to the other three, even though he’s in an offense led by a rookie quarterback in Bryce Young.
Tyler Lockett could be a steal at the end of round five.
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If you took the balanced approach of two running backs and two receivers with your first four picks, I much prefer the receivers in this range to the running backs for the flex spot. Specifically, I’m talking about Tyler Lockett, who’s inexplicably being drafted outside the top 60 and is the 32nd wide receiver off the board. All he’s done the last five years is turn in five top-20 finishes, including WR13 in 2022, and Geno Smith is back for another season in Seattle.
Marquise Brown, Treylon Burks and Mike Evans are also going in roughly the same range as Lockett. The Seahawk has the best quarterback situation, but Brown, Burks and Evans will all still see enough volume to deliver flex-worthy fantasy production.
Takeaways from Drafting 10th, 11th, 12th
UPDATE: The back of the first round has become more appealing with some minor ADP shifts. The most tantalizing aspect is the players who project to be available at the 1-2 turn and how well they will set you up for the rest of your draft. Landing a bonafide WR1 and RB1 will allow you more leeway later on if you want to deviate and draft a quarterback or tight end and conversely you can build on a strength by peppering running backs or wide receivers throughout the early rounds.
These draft slots put you in range to pile up high-end running back and wide receiver talent through the first five rounds. However, there’s really only one clear spot to select a quarterback (Jackson in the third) and the board doesn’t expose you to selecting any of the top-tier tight ends. (You could hypothetically land George Kittle in the sixth round, though). Because of how close the picks are in succession, it seems the best build might be RB/WR-WR/RB-QB-WR-RB. I prefer picking 1-2-3 or 7-8-9 to the 10-11-12 slots, but this range is still better than 4-5-6 in my opinion. The obvious draw here is the picks in quick succession in the first and second rounds and the board appears to continue to fall favorably over the next few rounds as well.
