UPDATED: Fantasy Football 2023 Draft Strategies, First Five Rounds From Picks 1-2-3
Editor’s note: Kyle Wood’s four-part series on fantasy draft strategy based on where you’re drafting has been very popular, so we asked Kyle to add a few updates to account for changes in average draft position since these stories were originally published.
There’s no shortage of fantasy football draft strategies that have been popularized over the years. You can try your hand at zero-RB, robust-RB, early-round QB, late-round QB and so on. Each approach has its merits and faults; one isn’t necessarily better than the others.
We’re going to go over a few ideal team-building strategies using current average draft position (ADP) data for four different draft slot groupings (1-3, 4-6, 7-9, 10-12). This advice won’t strictly adhere to one of the aforementioned blueprints, because we believe in letting the board fall to you — to a point.
It’s vital to be able to pivot at a moment’s notice. Players you swore you wouldn’t leave a draft without will get selected just before you’re on the clock. That much is a guarantee. It’s important to have contingency plans in place so that one panicked pick doesn’t derail your entire draft. That’s why we’re mapping out multiple adaptable methods to set your team up for success from the first, second and third slots.
Before we begin, there are a few things we must point out:
- Wide receivers are going early. How early? Three receivers had ADPs in the top 10 in 2022. As of now, that number is up to six.
- If you want a game-breaking quarterback, be ready to pay up. The top signal-callers are coming off the board as early as the second round.
- The gap between the top tight ends and the rest of the bunch is wide and that reality bears out in ADP.
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Rankings and ADP are good guidelines, but neither should dictate your entire draft. At the end of the day remember that you’re the decision-maker. So without further ado, let’s talk strategy.
(Note: The ADP data and draft strategy advice is intended for 12-team, PPR leagues.)
Drafting in Round 1
UPDATE: Christian McCaffrey has moved ahead of Ja’Marr Chase by ADP, though that change is marginal. I still prefer starting with a steady wide receiver, but no one would fault you for picking CMC over Chase, as he makes a strong case to be drafted 1.01 after his RB2 finish. Justin Jefferson, McCaffrey and Chase remain the consensus top three picks.
If you’ve spent the last few months away from the world of fantasy football, the first few picks might surprise you. Jefferson is the 1.01 and Chase is the 1.02 by ADP, which is also how one of SI Fantasy’s recent mock drafts panned out. The last time a wide receiver went first was 2016, when Antonio Brown, Julio Jones and Odell Beckham Jr. went first, second and third, respectively.
Jefferson finished as the WR1 last season, as he scored the sixth-most points of any player and second-most among non-QBs. Consistency was key; he finished in the top five at his position in more than half of his games. Jefferson has yet to miss a game in three years and never finished worse than WR6. You should have no qualms about taking him first overall and consider yourself lucky if he somehow falls to you at No. 2 or 3.
The next two picks are more a matter of personal preference. It’s between Chase and McCaffrey. Chase, who missed four games in 2022 with a hip injury, was the WR12 in total points and the WR3 in points per game behind Cooper Kupp and Jefferson. Meanwhile, McCaffrey just had his healthiest season since 2019 as he played all 17 games on his way to an RB2 finish. In this instance, we lean more toward McCaffrey, who the 49ers will heavily utilize once again.
Though there’s arguments to be made for Austin Ekeler, Kupp and Tyreek Hill at pick No. 3, I won’t make them here. I believe the first three picks should be Jefferson and then McCaffrey or Chase in whatever order. You’re guaranteed to get either an elite receiver or the No. 1 running back with one of these picks. I typically prefer to draft from a later slot, but the players going at the top of the first round are appealing to me this year.
Drafting in Rounds 2 and 3
UPDATE: Quarterback ADP has risen so much that Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen both might be gone by the time your second pick comes around. On the other hand, Jonathan Taylor’s ADP has plummeted to the end of the second round and even then you have to decide if he’s worth the risk, even at a steep discount, given the ongoing situation in Indianapolis.
There’s actually been quite a bit of movement in this range: Tony Pollard, Derrick Henry and Josh Jacobs have all seen their ADPs rise while Rhamondre Stevenson, DK Metcalf and Tee Higgins have seen theirs fall. I still like the receivers available in this range, such as Chris Olave, Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith, who could be stacked with Jalen Hurts if the board falls your way. It’s a bit of a tough spot to grab a running back now, though. After Taylor, only Najee Harris is being drafted in this range.
Believe it or not, it’s already time to start thinking about quarterbacks. That’s right, Mahomes, Allen and Hurts — the three highest-scoring players in 2022 — are all coming off the board in the 20s in the same range as fantasy darlings like Henry and Pollard.
If you’re looking for a stack, you likely won’t find one from these draft slots. Travis Kelce, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Stefon Diggs are all going between picks 6-20 during the long layoff between your first and second pick. It’s possible that Smith could fall a few spots and then be paired with Hurts at the 2-3 turn, but otherwise it’s rather difficult to match one of the top three quarterbacks with their top target.
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Ideally, I’d like to leave the third round with a quarterback, running back and receiver. That means if you began your draft with Jefferson or Chase, target Mahomes, Hurts or Allen in the second and come back around and find your RB1 in the third. There’s plenty of high-end options that should be available in this range including Josh Jacobs (the RB1 in 2022), Henry (RB4) or Rhamondre Stevenson (RB7).
However, if you start off with McCaffrey, the receivers in this range — Tee Higgins and DK Metcalf — have limited upside relative to the running backs. For that reason, I’m not opposed to an RB-RB-QB build (imagine having McCaffrey, Henry and Allen!) but waiting until the late 40s to find your WR1 is a risky proposition.
For managers who are less inclined to pay up for a quarterback (or in the case that the run on signal-callers starts in the late teens), I like a WR-RB-RB build with Jefferson or Chase as the anchor. Or if you start off with McCaffrey, an RB-RB-WR start would also work.
If addressing tight end early is important to you, feel free to reach a few spots for Mark Andrews, who’s the only player not named Kelce to finish as the TE1 since 2015. With Lamar Jackson back in Baltimore, he should be in for a resurgent season.
Drafting in Rounds 4 and 5
UPDATE: Again, quarterback ADP is on the rise so Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert and Justin Fields may all be gone by the end of the fourth based on updated ADP data. This is a good spot to secure an RB2, such as Miles Sanders or Dameon Pierce, and it’s a fine time to turn to tight end: T.J. Hockenson is still being drafted in this range and now George Kittle and Darren Waller are as well.
As far as receivers go, DJ Moore is still going at the 4-5 turn, but Terry McLaurin, Christian Kirk and Mike Williams are all being drafted later now. This has become a tough spot to address the position without reaching, though I’d still be content to grab Williams here or a player like Christian Watson or DeAndre Hopkins.
By now, your team should be loaded with top-end talent at wide receiver, running back or quarterback — perhaps all three. Now it’s time to start filling out the rest of your roster with depth pieces and the 4-5 turn presents a good opportunity to do so. There’s plenty of solid WR2 options, such as Terry McLaurin, Christian Kirk, Mike Williams and DJ Moore. Note that McLaurin and Moore are both the top targets on their teams but are part of lesser offenses than Kirk and Williams, who are the secondary options on their respective rosters.
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The next tier of quarterbacks also gets going here with Joe Burrow and Justin Fields in this range and Justin Herbert just a few spots later. You know what you’re getting through the air from Burrow (QB4 in 2022) and Herbert (QB2 in 2021) while Fields (QB7 in 2022) created value as a rusher last season with 1,143 yards. He should also take a leap as a passer given how the Bears built around him this offseason. If you didn’t grab one of Mahomes, Allen or Hurts at the 2-3 turn, I recommend drafting a quarterback in one of these rounds before the next tier break.
Very few running backs are going in this range. Joe Mixon is the only one with an ADP between 46-51. If he’s indeed on the field for the Bengals in Week 1, he’ll be an extreme value this late in the draft coming off back-to-back top-10 finishes. If your roster is still in need of an RB2 in the fifth, you could do far worse than Aaron Jones (RB9 in 2022) or Kenneth Walker III (RB18) even if both are a minor reach by ADP.
On the tight end front, T.J. Hockenson projects to be available at the top of the fifth round. He had seven top-12 finishes in 10 weeks with the Vikings last season after he was traded (compared with three across seven games for the Lions).
Takeaways from Drafting First, Second or Third
UPDATE: I still like the idea of starting from the 1.01, 1.02 or 1.03, but the 2-3 turn is less appealing at the moment based on updated ADP. These draft positions open you up to plenty of high-end receivers in the early rounds and there’s a few spots where tight end makes sense. As for quarterback and running back, though, it’s slim pickings. There’s a chance to go “hero RB” with McCaffrey in the first and wait on RB2. And if you start off with a receiver, zero RB could be the strategy for you from one of these spots as long as you have a few late-round targets in mind.
An early draft slot might be the way to go this year. Yes, you have your pick of the litter at the top of the draft and can come away with McCaffrey, the most common player on championship teams in ESPN leagues last year; Jefferson, who could make history this season with 2,000 yards receiving; or Chase, who’s tied for the second-most receiving touchdowns in the league the last two seasons. But what I like the most about these draft positions is the players available at the 2-3 turn. In the mid-20s, you have two bites at the apple with players like Mahomes, Hurts, Henry and Jacobs projected to be available in that range. Talk about setting yourself up for success. When you’re back on the clock at the 4-5 turn there’s still a good group of receivers to choose from and quarterback is also a possibility if that’s still a need. There might also be two chances to grab the best tight ends not named Kelce: Andrews in the third or Hockenson in the fifth.
My favorite build from the first, second or third pick is as follows: WR-QB/RB-RB/QB-WR-RB. However, if by choice or necessity your draft begins with a running back, I prefer this route: RB-QB/RB-RB/QB-WR-WR. And if you’re not as bullish on the top three quarterbacks as I am, you can wait a few rounds and load up on running backs in the second and third rounds instead.
