Fantasy Football ADP Bargains and Busts: Dak Prescott, DK Metcalf Could be Steals

Michael Fabiano | Aug 20, 2025

Cowboys QB Dak Prescott could be a fantasy football draft bargain based on his current average draft position (ADP). / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

If you’re playing fantasy football, you’ve probably heard of ADP or “average draft position.” For those who don’t know, ADP is exactly what it sounds like … it’s the average draft spot where a player is being picked. Based on this information, we can decipher player values and form a game plan for when we should target them in drafts.

However, there are plenty of examples of where ADP data and my own rankings have a notable difference. For this exercise, I looked at FantasyPros ADP data to find the players who have the biggest difference between their data and my own rankings.

ADP isn’t gospel after all, but instead a useful guide. Ultimately, you’ll need to make the final decisions on who you draft to help lead your team to a league title!

Here's 16 players who I like more or less than ADP.

Fantasy Football ADP Undervalued Draft Picks

Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys (ADP – QB13, Fabs – QB10): I’m a little higher on Prescott compared to ADP, and it has nothing to do with being a Jerry Jones hating Cowboys fan. I just like this pass attack for George Pickens alongside CeeDee Lamb combined with a lack of real playmakers in the backfield. Plus, the Cowboys defense could be less than stellar, so I can see Dak and the Pokes throwing the football a ton.

Caleb Williams, QB, Bears (ADP – QB15, Fabs – QB11): Williams had an inconsistent first NFL season, and he stilled finished a respectable 16th in points among quarterbacks. Now he has an improved offensive line, an offensive-minded head coach in Ben Johnson and added weapons in Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland. With a year of NFL experience under his belt, I like Williams to push to be a low QB1.

Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jaguars (ADP – QB20, Fabs – QB17): Admittedly, I am no huge fan of Lawrence, who has not met expectations in the NFL to this point. Still, he’s got maybe the best weapons at his disposal this season with the addition of Travis Hunter. Plus his new head coach, Liam Coen, is an offensive mind. I prefer Lawrence over players like Jordan Love, C.J. Stroud and J.J. McCarthy in drafts.

DK Metcalf, WR, Steelers (ADP – WR21, Fabs – WR14): Metcalf coming off the board as the WR21 based on ADP data is criminal. How is the top option in the passing game for Aaron Rodgers not ranked in the top 15 (at least). And don’t give me that Rodgers is old either … did you see the numbers Davante Adams put him with AR last season? I’m all in on the veteran receiver and rank him seven spots higher than ADP.

Jake Ferguson, TE, Cowboys (ADP – TE16, Fabs – TE11): Ferguson’s best fantasy season came in 2023, when he posted 761 yards, five touchdowns and 177.1 points. That was also his first (and only) full season as a starter with Dak Prescott under center. Prescott is big on Ferguson in the offense, so I can see him finishing as a TE1 in fantasy. But based on his ADP, he’s being picked as a mid-TE2 … that’s a steal, folks.

RJ Harvey, RB, Broncos (ADP – RB24, Fabs – RB20): Harvey got the start for the Broncos in their first preseason game, which was surprising. That doesn’t mean he’ll remain in that role with J.K. Dobbins in the mix, but it’s notable. He has more upside of the two, though, so I see the rookie as a potential RB2 in head coach Sean Payton’s offense. In this case, I have Harvey ranked higher than what we’re seeing at FantasyPros.

Omarion Hampton, RB, Chargers (ADP – RB17, Fabs – RB14): My love of Hampton is well documented, so of course I have him ranked higher than ADP (only by three spots though). Even with Najee Harris in the mix, I’m expecting Hampton to be the lead back for offensive coordinator Greg Roman. He has low RB1 potential in his rookie campaign, and I have him coming off the board in the third or fourth round.

Fantasy Football ADP Overvalued Draft Picks

Christian McCaffrey, RB, 49ers (ADP – RB4, Fabs – RB7): I can’t believe McCaffrey has snuck back into the first-round conversation as a top-five running back. I have him as the RB7, and even that is done begrudgingly. He’s played in seven or fewer games in three of the last five years, and he’s entering his age-29 season. To meet expectations, CMC will have to score 290-plus fantasy points in 2025. In the Super Bowl era, only four backs (Priest Holmes – 2, Derrick Henry, Barry Sanders, Tiki Barber – 2) have scored more than 290 points at age 29 or older. Buyer beware.

TreVeyon Henderson, RB, Patriots (ADP – RB20, Fabs – RB24): The hype machine is going wild as it pertains to Henderson, and I get it. I love his talent to be sure, and even I have him ranked in the RB2 range … but I have him four spots behind where he’s going based on ADP data. Keep in mind that Henderson has never seen massive workloads in college, and he’ll be sharing the workload with Rhamondre Stevenson.

Ladd McConkey, WR, Chargers (ADP – WR11, Fabs – WR15): I loved “Laddy Daddy” as a rookie, and he rewarded those who drafted him with a top-12 finish. However, that might have been his ceiling in Roman’s offense (it was the best finish any receiver has had in his system). The Chargers have brought back Keenan Allen, who still has something left in the tank, so I’m fading McConkey as more than a WR2 option.  

Tee Higgins, WR, Bengals (ADP – WR13, Fabs – WR17): Higgins is a very good receiver in a great offense with a great quarterback in Joe Burrow. He’ll never be the alpha with Ja’Marr Chase around, however, and he’s only had one season (2024) where he averaged more than 16 points per game. Higgins has also missed 10 games over the last two seasons due to injuries, yet he’s still the WR13 based on ADP. I’d pass.

Colston Loveland, TE, Bears (ADP – TE11, Fabs – TE14): Loveland was a top-10 pick in the NFL draft, and fantasy managers see him as the next San LaPorta in Johnson’s offense. That might happen in time, but not this season. The Bears have DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III and Cole Kmet in the pass attack, so Loveland could have a hard time being a fantasy TE1 as a rookie. I prefer him as a high TE2.

Jonnu Smith, TE, Steelers (ADP – TE13, Fabs – TE16): Smith is coming off a career season that he’ll very unlikely to be able to duplicate in Pittsburgh. Still, he’s hovering as the end of the TE1s based on ADP data. That’s too rich for my blood. If you’re able to land Smith more as a backup and matchup-based starter, I’d feel much more comfortable. Don’t simply look at his 2024 totals and expect him to be a fantasy starter.

Garrett Wilson, WR, Jets (ADP – WR15, Fabs – WR11): There seems to be some stink of Wilson, and I’m not sure why. He was the WR10 last season, and he’s now catching passes from his old college pal, Justin Fields. Wilson is also the only serious playmaker the Jets have in their passing game. I’ll gladly take Wilson as my WR1.