XFL Week 5 Lines and Sharp Plays
The XFL, with its various different rules compared to the NFL, continues to make it difficult for oddsmakers to set appropriate spreads and totals. The sharp information from Vegas, shared here only at Sports Illustrated, is a blistering 8-2 ATS this season. Let's get into Week 5's numbers.
Week 5 Lines
(Odds courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
Seattle Dragons at Houston Roughnecks (-12.5)
Total: 46
When: Saturday, March 7 at 2 p.m. ET
TV: ABC
New York Guardians at Dallas Renegades (-8)
Total: 37
When: Saturday, March 7 at 5 p.m. ET
TV: FOX
St. Louis BattleHawks (-4.5) at DC Defenders
Total: 39
When: Sunday, March 8 at 3 p.m. ET
TV: FS1
Tampa Bay Vipers at Los Angeles Wildcats (-2)
Total: 40.5
When: Sunday, March at 9 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
There continues to be a significant adjustment on all totals, as the highest posted total in Week 5 is 46 points—obviously involving the highest scoring team in Houston.
The rules used in XFL games give way to unpredictable scores you would not traditionally see in NFL or NCAA games.
The league clearly wants more scoring to attract fans, however bettors have now seen 11 of the first 16 games go under the posted totals offered by sportsbooks.
There are no traditional PAT kicks in the XFL, as teams are allowed to go for a one-point conversion (from the 2-yard line), a two-point try (from the 5-yard line) or a three-point attempt (from the 10-yard line). However, teams continue to struggle to convert PATs, converting just 27/75 attempts (36%). The Roughnecks and Renegades are the only teams to successfully convert a three-point attempt, with Houston now achieving the feat in consecutive weeks against Tampa Bay and Dallas.
Week 5 Sharp Play:
St. Louis BattleHawks -2.5*
The sharps quickly reversed course on their opinions of Cardale Jones and the DC Defenders after two consecutive horrendous performances against Los Angeles and Tampa Bay. The wiseguys jumped in early Monday afternoon backing a peaking BattleHawks squad at less than a full field goal, while fading a hapless Defenders club that has scored a total of nine points since Week 2.
I advised SI Gambling followers on Twitter on Monday afternoon to lay the small spread immediately.
Don't wait on this one because this line will only continue to soar. Grab the free money, at a field full field goal or less,while you still can.
Possible Added Play (Los Angeles vs Tampa Bay):
The sharps are awaiting injury update on Los Angeles WR Nelson Spruce and RB Martez Carter. Wildcats star wide receiver Nelson Spruce, who led the league in receiving entering Week 4, was forced to miss the game against New York due to a knee injury and his status is up in the air for Week 5. In addition, star running back Martez Carter was also forced to sit with a hip injury after bursting out in Week 3 with three touchdowns.
XFL Season Record: 8-2 ATS
XFL Trends
- The Guardians are 2-0 SU and ATS at MetLife Stadium. New York is 0-2 both SU and ATS on the road.
- Tampa Bay is one of five XFL teams that are 0-2 on the road while being outscored 40-12 in away games. The Vipers haven’t scored an offensive TD on the road.
- DC has scored just nine points total since Week 2
- With 12 touchdown passes, Houston QB PJ Walker is averaging three touchdown passes per game.
- As outstanding as Walker has performed, flying under the radar are the numbers quietly being put up with St. Louis QB Jordan Ta’amu. Walker leads the league with 1,091 total yards, but Ta’amu is right on his heels at 1,062.
The information straight from Frankie Taddeo, Sports Illustrated’s Gambling Vegas Insider, is currently on an amazing 38-11-1 ATS (78%) run on all released plays. The sharp information out in Vegas supplied only to Sports Illustrated was perfect going 7-0 ATS in the NFL Playoffs, culminating with a winning selection of Kansas City in Super Bowl LIV. Since November, the sharps have absolutely crushed the sportsbooks. Be sure to follow us here at SI Gambling for the wiseguy action from Vegas all year long!
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