RBC Heritage Predictions & Best Bets

The SI Gambling Team breaks down their favorite bets, values, and longshots for the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town Golf Links. Plus, SI Gambling insider Frankie Taddeo weighs in on the sharp action from Vegas & England.
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The PGA Tour is back again this week from Hilton Head, South Carolina, so it’s time to make some money with the help of the SI Gambling team of experts.

The reigning champion of the event, C.T. Pan, is back to defend his title at odds of 200/1.

The field offers tremendous betting opportunities with many of the top 20 players currently ranked in the 2020 FedEx Cup standings projected to participate.

RBC Heritage Details:

Dates: Jun 18–21, 2020

Course: Harbour Town Golf Links; Hilton Head Island, South Carolina

TV: GOLF Channel; CBS

Purse: $7,100,000

As highlighted earlier this week, the field at Harbour Town will have all five of the top players currently listed in the World Golf Rankings will tee it up for a second straight week: Rory McIlroy (12/1), Jon Rahm (16/1), Justin Thomas(16/1), Brooks Koepka (40/1) and Dustin Johnson (40/1).

It is no shock to see all five of them currently listed among the top-14 betting choices according to oddsmakers at the Westgate Superbook.

Our team of gambling experts has compiled their approach to the RBC Heritage from a betting perspective. In addition, located below is sharp wagering information from both Vegas and London, England.

Let’s take a look at the odds as well as the team’s best bets and more!

Odds courtesy of the Westgate Superbook

Odds courtesy of the Westgate Superbook

Predictions & Best Bets:

Last week, our very own Shawn Childs nailed Daniel Berger as his ‘Value Play’ of the Charles Schwab Challenge at odds of 80/1

Let’s see what he has in store this week!

Shawn Childs, SI Gambling & Fantasy Analyst (@Shawn__Childs)

PLAYERS TO WIN: Justin Thomas 16/1:

As I mentioned last week, Thomas is my pony in 2020, and I want to ride him each week while he’s playing well. Over his previous two events, he played well over his first three rounds (WGC-Mexico – 67, 66, 65, and Charles Schwab – 64, 68, 66) while struggling on Sunday in both events (73 and 71). Over his last 12 events. Thomas has three wins and six other top 10 finishes. He’s a great board play, and this front runner looks poised to find his rhythm on Sunday.

Jon Rahm 16/1:

Last week’s darling missed the cut by a couple of strokes. I’m looking for Rahm to bounce-back in a big way at the RBC Heritage. Over the first three holes at the Charles Schwab, he posted four birdies, one par, and a bogey. Unfortunately, over the last 15 holes, Rahm managed only one other birdie with four bogeys. Over his previous 12 events, he made the cut in each event leading to two 2nds, three 3rds, and four other top tens. On the verge of greatness with a string of wins expected to come over a short period of time.

BEST VALUE PLAY: Dustin Johnson 40/1:

Before this season, Johnson was one of the top players in the game for multiple years, as well as a top favorite in most events. At 40/1, he’s priced favorably when considering that Johnson has 11 wins over his last 86 tournaments (or a win every 7.8 events).

Johnson missed the cut last week, and his game hasn’t been sharp over his previous nine tournaments when playing on the weekend (two top 10 finishes while making each cut).

Over the last two years as the RBC Heritage, Johnson played well for three of his four rounds (2018 – 69, 69, 72, and 67 and 2019 – 68, 67, 68, and 77).

His scoring average (70.8) is up almost a full stroke over the 2018-19 season (69.9).

BEST LONGSHOT: Patrick Rodgers 150/1:

Over his five seasons with a full-time PGA card, Rodgers doesn’t have a win in 121 events while placing 2nd twice. Even with golf shut down for three months, he’s already played in 10 tournaments in 2020.

Rodgers made the cut in nine of those events with one top 10. He ranks ninth in strokes gained putting this year with some struggles in proximity to the hole (80th).

Rodgers struggles to hit the fairways (51.4 percent – 212th) and this set isn’t ideal for his wild driver, but his game is trending upward this season.

FAVORITE MATCHUP PLAY: Bryson DeChambeau (-125) over Xander Schauffele

Just playing the hot golfer over a player coming off a let-down after just missing a chance to win last week.

Frankie Taddeo, SI Gambling & Fantasy Analyst / Vegas Insider (@Frankie_Fantasy)

ACROSS THE POND:

Metric Gaming’s Golf Desk located across the pond in London, England was sensational last week; just missing out on the winner as Colin Morikawa (40/1) fell to Daniel Berger (80/1) in a sudden-death playoff at Colonial. Their other top selection for the event also had a terrific showing. Sungjae Im at 30/1 finished in the top-10, shooting 11-under par for the tournament.

According to Daniel Banham, Director of Trading, these PGA Tournaments continue to remain wide open:

“We have no player with a power rating of over five percent to win the tournament. Our models indicate it is not a time to back the favorites with so many players who can win on this golf course, as longer hitters are at essentially zero advantage.”

Rory McIlroy checks in with the highest win percentage at a mere 4.68% in a very talented and level playing field.

“Accordingly, there is a tremendous amount of value to be found,” added Banham.

Metric Gaming advises all Vegas bettors to use Circa Sports for the players their models are high on, notably Tyrrell Hatton (56/1), Kevin Kisner (72/1), Branden Grace (72/1) and Shane Lowry (100/1).

In addition, Banham highlighted two 72-hole matchup plays that are worthy of garnering attention from sports bettors: Jason Kokrak (-120) over Bubba Watson as well as Abraham Ancer (-105) over Viktor Hovland.

RECAP & BREAKDOWN: (Odds courtesy of Circa Sports)

METRIC GAMING’s PLAYER TO WIN: Kevin Kisner 72/1:

Kisner, who checks in at No. 36 in World Rankings, is fresh off a 29th place finish last week at the Charles Schwab Challenge. Kisner has shown well at the RBC Heritage with a 2nd place finish in 2015, 11th place finish in 2017 followed by a 7th place finish in 2018. Back in his home state of South Carolina, Kisner assuredly will have the proverbial “home-course” advantage, minus the local fans in the stands.

METRIC GAMING’s SHARP VALUE PLAYS: Tyrrell Hatton 56/1 & Branden Grace 72/1:

Hatton ranks No. 20 in the world and offers tremendous value; especially if he is able to stay in the same form we saw in March when he captured the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Grace, who ranks No. 70, comes in at healthy 72/1 odds after shooting nine-under for the Charles Schwab Challenge last week; good enough for a 19th place finish.

METRIC GAMING’s SHARP LONGSHOT: Shane Lowry (100/1)

Lowry at No. 22 in the world, is at long odds after missing the cut at the Charles Schwab Challenge. However, he checks in as a target of the sharps this week thanks to his three prior top 30 finishes: Zozo Championship (T13) in October, World Golf Championships-Mexico Championship (T29) in February and The Honda Classic (T21) in March.

VEGAS WHISPERS:

Tournament Matchup Sharp Plays

Daniel Berger (+105) over Matt Kuchar

Brooks Koepka (-115) over Dustin Johnson

According to John Murray, Director of Race of Sports at the Westgate Superbook Las Vegas, sharp action was placed on the tournament taking aim at two particular matchups.

“The support has rolled in behind last week’s Charles Schwab Challenge winner Daniel Berger over Matt Kuchar at odds of +105 as well Brooks Koepka (-115) over Dustin Johnson,” said Murray. 

Ben Heisler, SI Gambling & Fantasy Analyst / Editor (@bennyheis)

PLAYERS TO WIN: Justin Thomas 16/1:

Thomas is my “check-all-the-boxes” pick this week.

He’s second in birdie average, fourth in scoring average, owns the second most FedEx Cup points on tour and continues to be a “strokes gained” wizard.

He’s played Harbour Town twice and owns a Top 11 finish back in 2015. Plus, if Shawn Childs is backing him after winning with Berger at 80/1 last week, I have to ride with J.T!

Collin Morikawa 20/1:

I decided to bet live on Morikawa last Sunday at +900. I watched him hold a lead, lose it, climb back, and then lose on a lip out on 17 in the playoff to Berger. What a brutal bad beat!

Normally, I’d fade a player in a similar position as Morikawa the following week, but he strikes me as the type of golfer willing to dig deep after a tough moment like that. Plus, the 23-year old he still has not missed a cut in all 22 of his starts.

BEST VALUE PLAY: Joel Dahmen 80/1:

What am I missing on Dahmen that he continues to remain in 80/1 territory?

He has four consecutive Top 20 finishes, along with a Top-10 ranking in strokes gained: tee-to-green as well as Top-15 SG: approach-to-green. He avoided key mistakes at Colonial, shooting no worse than even par the entire tournament.

Plus in his lone appearance at Harbour Town, Dahmen finished in, you guessed it, the top 20.

He’ll be hovering around all weekend on a course that fits his skills to a “tee” (pun somewhat intended) and I’ll take that at 80/1.

BEST LONGSHOT: Jim Furyk 150/1:

Furyk and Harbour Town Golf Links are the best of friends.

This is his all-time favorite course, along with the RBC Heritage being his favorite event on Tour.

Part of the reason Furyk has continued to consistently hold up, despite being on the wrong side of 50, is his ability to drive the ball exactly where he wants. He ranks tops amongst PGA golfers in Driving Accuracy, hitting fairways at nearly an 80% clip.

Plus, Furyk is in Morikawa’s pairing with Tony Finau, so you know that’s going to get the seasoned veteran fired up to play well.

FAVORITE MATCHUP PLAY: Hideki Matsuyama (EVEN) over Justin Rose (-120)

Alex White, SI Gambling Contributor / Full Time Fantasy (@FullTimeFantasy)

PLAYERS TO WIN: Bryson DeChambeau 14/1:

With four finishes in the top five in a row, DeChambeau is on a mission to prove that power can change the game. Last week he gained a staggering 10.4 strokes tee to green. DeChambeau has no worse than 8.7 strokes gained Tee to Green in his last four tournaments. The mad scientist has found a key ingredient to his success and will ride this power train to victory.

Justin Rose 30/1:

Rose proved last week that switching clubs can drastically improve your game. He ditched Hanma and went back to TaylorMade which instantly made an impact on his performance. Last week at Colonial he gained strokes in every major category and crushed the greens with over five strokes gained. Mustering a respectable 3rd place finish at Colonial he left a lot of strokes on the course and will look to make them up this week. The odds are more than fair for the 10x PGA Tour winner.

BEST VALUE PLAY: Bubba Watson 100/1:

Bubba is one of the most notoriously streaky golfers on tour. When he has a good tournament he is always worth a look the following week. He must have been working on his putting during the long break because he gained over five strokes putting at Colonial.

Bubba gained strokes in every major category last week, this puts him firmly in play at that price. You rarely get a golfer at 100/1 odds that has won 12x on the PGA Tour.

BEST LONGSHOT: Sepp Straka 400/1:

Straka is a complete moonshot with this selection, but at 400/1, you may as well put $5 on him and have a chance to return $2,000.

Sepp is as volatile as they come on the tour but his last few times out on a Pete Dye course he has managed a 28th place finish in March and a 4th place finish in January. He seems to only make the cut on Pete Dye Designs. 

Roy Larking, SI Gambling & Fantasy Contributor (@SIGambling)

PLAYER TO WIN: Justin Thomas 16/1:

Justin Thomas enters the RBC Heritage ranked No. 2 in the FedEx Cup standings and No. 3 in the World Golf Rankings. Thomas won The CJ CUP @ Nine Bridges and the Sentry Tournament of Champions prior to the 2019-20 PGA season being put on pause due to COVID-19.

Harbour Town is similar to the Colonial Country Club where Thomas finished in a 10th place tie last week.

BEST VALUE PLAY: Patrick Reed 30/1:

Dating back to the World Golf Championships - HSBC Champions tournament in November, Patrick Reed has six top-eight finishes over the last nine PGA tournaments. That includes a first-place finish at the World Golf Championships - Mexico Championship in February.

Reed finished tied for seventh during the Charles Schwab Challenge last weekend and currently sits No. 6 in the World Golf Rankings.

Matt Kuchar 40/1:

Given his past success at this tournament, and since Harbour Town favors finesse players, Matt Kuchar is my value play with 40/1 odds.

Kuchar was the champion in 2014 and finished one-stroke behind tournament winner C.T. Pan last year. Often amongst the leaders at this event, Kucher has respectable 5th, 9th, 11th, 23rd, and 2nd place finishes during the last five RBC Heritage tournaments.

FAVORITE MATCHUP PLAY: Justin Rose (-120) over Hideki Matsuyama (+100)

With TaylorMade clubs back in his bag, Justin Rose shot a four-round 266 to finish one-stroke behind Daniel Berger at the Charles Schwab Challenge last week. Hideki Matsuyama is playing his first tournament since finishing 56th at Arnold Palmer Invitational back in March. While both players have 30/1 odds to win the tournament outright - playing last week gives Rose a slight advantage over Matsuyama.