NFL Week 12 - Best Bets Against the Spread From the SI Gambling Team

The SI Gambling team, along with our colleagues at the MMQB share their best bets against the spread for Week 12 in the NFL.
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NFL Best Bets for Week 12

Please note: These are our FREE picks, not our PREMIUM picks which are reserved for MEMBERS only at SI Fantasy PRO. Members receive alert notifications immediately upon pick release.

OFFICIAL VEGAS WHISPERS PICKS DOCUMENTED

YTD: 188-130-2 | MLB: 79-60 | NFL: 52-41-1 | CFB: 19-17 | January-March: 38-12-2 | Casey Olson's MMA PICKS: 188-79-5 (70% on all released betting plays)

SI-BUTTON-GET-THE-PICKS (1)

Ben Heisler (@bennyheis)

New York Giants at Cincinnati Bengals (+6) | TOTAL: 43

Not having Joe Burrow available for the Bengals is a bummer, but I’m not convinced that it means the offense will die a slow painful death at home vs the Giants.

Cincinnati throws the second most amount of times in the NFL, and with no Joe Mixon, that doesn’t appear likely to change even with Brandon Allen taking over at quarterback. Allen has been discussed as a player very familiar with the system Zac Taylor runs and isn’t afraid to take some chances downfield.

The Giants haven’t played in a game with a final total under 43 since October 18th, and it appears that their once anemic offense has finally turned the corner with Daniel Jones, Wayne Gallman, Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton all healthy and playing well.

No Burrow? No problem on the over.

BEST BET: Giants @ Bengals OVER 43

Frankie Taddeo (@Frankie_Fantasy)

Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) | TOTAL: 56

For this week’s best bet, I will turn my attention to easily the best matchup on the Week 12 slate. The defending Champion Kansas City Chiefs are 9-1 SU and 6-4 ATS and in my opinion are flying under the radar by public bettors. This could be the game that NFL fans witness the transformation in the “face” of the league. 

Tom Brady, with his six Super Bowl rings, has been the face of the league for over the past decade. However, he is starting to show his age in 2020 and on the other side of the ball the electrifying Patrick Mahomes is playing at an elite level that has him on track for his second League MVP in just his third season as a starter. Do not underestimate that RB Le’Veon Bell finally got involved with the offense last week (scoring his first TD since signing with the club) as well as the return of veteran WR Sammy Watkins this week - making this No. 1 ranked offense (32.1 points per game) even more dangerous (if that is even possible). 

Tampa Bay (7-4 SU; 5-6 ATS) has been defeated soundly in two of the last three weeks by playoff bound teams (Rams and Saints) both at home. There should be no letdown for my top power ranked team with the added angle that if they desire the path to Super Bowl LV in the AFC - to go though Arrowhead for a second straight season - they can not afford to fall two games behind the undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers (10-0) in the race for the top overall seed.

BEST BET: Chiefs -3.5

Corey Parson (@TheFantasyExec)

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-3) | TOTAL: 51.5

BEST BET: Titans @ Colts UNDER 51.5

Michael Fabiano (@Michael_Fabiano)

LA Chargers at Buffalo Bills -5 | TOTAL: 53

This week’s Chargers-Bills game features two of the league’s brightest young quarterbacks in Josh Allen and Justin Herbert. Both offenses are playing at a high level, so it’s no surprise that their combined games have gone over the total at least 70 percent of the time. 

Additionally, Buffalo has gone over the total at nearly an 80 percent clip. With the weather projected to be clear and nearly 50 degrees at Orchard Park, I’d expect the points to come fast and furious this weekend.

BEST BET: Over 53

Roy Larking (@StatsGuru6)

Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills (-5) | TOTAL: 53

Justin Herbert and the Chargers (3-7) are on the road following a 34-28 win at home against the New York Jets last week. Los Angeles snapped a three game losing streak with the victory. Josh Allen and Bills (7-3) return to action following their bye week. Prior to that, Buffalo allowed a 43-yard hail mary TD pass, with two seconds left in the game, and lost 32-30 to the Cardinals on the road in Arizona. This projects as a high scoring contest as the Bills are averaging 27.2 points per game and the Chargers are scoring 26 points per game.

Los Angeles is traveling west to east to play an early game for the second time in three weeks. The Chargers lost 29-21 in Miami during Week 10 action. The final score is slightly deceiving as the Dolphins were up 29-14 prior to allowing a late touchdown. Buffalo enters this game well rested and at near full health. WR John Brown (ankle) is the Bills’ lone injury concern. The Chargers are dealing with several key injuries on defense. That’s not good against the potent Buffalo offense. Buffalo and OVER is an attractive parlay wager.

Buffalo is a -5 point favorite at DraftKings – Lay the line and bet on the Bills.

BEST BET: Bills -5

Steve Renner (@Steve_Renner)

LA Chargers at Buffalo Bills (-5) | TOTAL: 53

The Chargers have had a hard time closing out games and even struggled to close out the Jets last weekend. Now they travel west to east for a 1PM eastern kickoff in Buffalo against a rested Bills team. This is a spot to jump on Buffalo as they’re the better team and should have the weapons on defense to limit the air attack of Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. I’ll comfortably lay the 5 with Buffalo.

BEST BET: Bills -5

Ian Ritchie (@SIGambling)

Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills (-5) | TOTAL: 53

I am expecting a high scoring game with the Bills coming off a rest week and the Chargers traveling across country after a win versus the Jets. Josh Allen is having himself quite a year and with the rest week and a home game, I fully expect them to take care of business. 

The Chargers with Herbert under center are scoring enough points and beating mediocre teams but the Bills are not mediocre, they are now elite. With a bad taste in their mouth after the hail mary loss to the Cardinals, look for Buffalo to take it out on the Chargers and their young QB at home in this one and get us an easy cover.

BEST BET: Bills -5.5

Scott Atkins (@ScottFantasy)

NY Giants -6 @ Cincinnati Bengals | TOTAL: 43

BEST BET: Giants @ Bengals UNDER 43

Casey Olson (@Y2CASEY)

Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars (+6) | TOTAL: 49

So the Browns just can't decide if they want to be a top tier team yet or not. On four occasions they come out and score 10 or less points, then in the other six games they score 32 to more. After winning two straight, Cleveland has some momentum and are in the hunt at 7-3 to sneak a playoff birth in the AFC. 

Helping the cause will be their matchup this week against a Jaguars squad that has rattled off nine straight losses while allowing their opponents to put up an average of 30 or so points a game. Mike Glennon has been announced the new starting QB for the Jags this week and it will be his first since early on in 2017. Glennon didn’t sound uber confident stating, "We're a 1-9 football team. I'm just going to do whatever I can to help." 

Even with a substantial list on the midweek injury report, the Browns should be able to cover less than a TD in this spot.

BEST BET: Browns -6

Gary Gramling, The MMQB (@GGramling_SI)

Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles (+5) | TOTAL: 50

The “Let Russ Cook” campaign came to a screeching halt after an avalanche of ugly turnovers, and if last game was any indication the Seahawks are returning to the run-game-plus-play-action formula. That alone should have their score projection in the 20s, not the 30s, for this game. As for the Eagles, the entire offense is disjointed—not just Carson Wentz. Plus, since 2018, the Philly has faced a defense allowing six or more yards per play nine times, and all nine of those games went under. They just don’t have what it takes to roll it up on bad defenses.

BEST BET: Seahawks at Eagles UNDER 50

Mitch Goldich, The MMQB (@mitchgoldich)

Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles (+5) | TOTAL: 50

I hate to say this as a Philly native, but the best bet on the board is the Seahawks taking care of business against the Eagles. Sometimes you just have to bet with your head over your heart.

Are people watching the same Eagles team I’ve seen all year? It’s a little hard to expect a bounce-back against a team as good as the Seahawks, especially if Chris Carson returns to the lineup. And remember that Doug Pederson is winless against Seattle, with the Eagles scoring just 15, 10, 9 and 9 in those games. It’s hard to expect more than 17 or 20 this time around, and that probably won’t be enough.

BEST BET: Seahawks -5

NAMEPICKRECORD

BEN HEISLER

NYG @ CIN UNDER 43

6-5

FRANKIE TADDEO

CHIEFS -3.5

6-5

COREY PARSON

TEN @ IND UNDER 51.5

3-7

MICHAEL FABIANO

LAC @ BUF OVER 53

6-5

BILL ENRIGHT

3-8

ROY LARKING

BILLS -5

7-4

STEVE RENNER

BILLS -5

5-6

IAN RITCHIE

BILLS -5

4-7

SCOTT ATKINS

NYG @ CIN UNDER 43

5-5-1

CASEY OLSON

BROWNS -6

6-4-1

GARY GRAMLING

PHI @ SEA UNDER 50

4-7

MITCH GOLDICH

SEAHAWKS -5

6-5

LAST WEEK'S RECORD (ATS): 2-10

COLLECTIVE RECORD (ATS): 68-69-2

Check out this week's staff picks from the MMQB Team!