2020 NFL Week 13 - Best Bets Against the Spread From the SI Gambling Team

The SI Gambling team, along with our colleagues at the MMQB share their best bets against the spread for Week 13 in the NFL.
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NFL Best Bets for Week 13

Please note: These are our FREE picks, not our PREMIUM picks which are reserved for MEMBERS only at SI Fantasy PRO. Members receive alert notifications immediately upon pick release.

OFFICIAL VEGAS WHISPERS PICKS DOCUMENTED

YTD: 191-131-2 | MLB: 79-60 | NFL: 55-42-1 | CFB: 19-17 | January-March: 38-12-2 | Casey Olson's MMA PICKS: 192-80-5 (71% on all released betting plays)

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NFL Best Bets for Week 13

Please note: These are our FREE picks, not our PREMIUM picks which are reserved for MEMBERS only at SI Fantasy PRO. Members receive alert notifications immediately upon pick release.

Check out the breakdowns for each of our analyst's picks below!

Check out the breakdowns for each of our analyst's picks below!

Ben Heisler (@bennyheis)

New England Patriots at Los Angeles Chargers (-1) | TOTAL: 47.5

I was flabbergasted when the line opened at Chargers -1.5 for this game. HOW?

L.A. can’t get out of its own way with abysmal clock management and no regard for situational play calling late in games. They willfully find ways to lose, highlighted by this gem from ProFootballTalk.

“The Chargers have had 20 games decided by one score since the start of the 2019 season, and they are 4-16 in those games. That is the most one-score losses in the NFL in that span.”

I’m not saying this year’s Patriots are world-beaters, but if you’re going to gift a Bill Belichick coached team points vs a Chargers squad with a 25% winning percentage in one-score games over the last two years, I think you’ve made my decision fairly easy.

This line will move towards the Patriots the closer we get, so I’d hop on early.

BEST BET: Patriots +1 (this line has since moved to Patriots -1 at DraftKings Sportsbook).

Frankie Taddeo (@Frankie_Fantasy)

Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans (-5.5) | TOTAL: 54

Normally, when you have two 8-3 teams likely headed for the playoffs, the line should only be around a field goal. Despite only moderate support in the early wagering, the oddsmakers have made a huge move to the Titans who have gone both 3-1 SU and ATS in their last four games. In addition, how could you not be impressed with Tennessee’s last two quality road wins over the Colts and Ravens? 

On the flip side, Baker Mayfield and the Browns (8-3 SU; 4-7 ATS) have covered just one of their last six games ATS. Talk about burning money. Finally, are you willing to get in front of the Derrick Henry train right now? I’m not. 

Look for the Titans to extend their winning streak to three straight overall over a Browns team that simply is overrated.

BEST BET: Titans -5.5

Corey Parson (@TheFantasyExec)

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Minnesota Vikings (-10 ) | TOTAL: 51

The Jacksonville Jaguars may only have one win on the season but they are 5-6 ATS on the year, Jacksonville has also covered the number in three of their last four games. Minnesota is 6-5 ATS on the season but only 2-4 ATS in home games, that says that they are overvalued at home.

Minnesota has won four of their last five games but only one of those victories was convincing, not only do I think Jacksonville will cover I think they have a chance to pull off the upset.

BEST BET: Jaguars +10

Michael Fabiano (@Michael_Fabiano)

Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans (-5.5) | TOTAL: 54

It’s Derrick Henry season for the Titans! The big, bruising back is set to lead the Titans to the playoffs with the first of several favorable matchups, the first of which comes against the Browns. Their defense has been bad on the road, and it would be ranked lower in the league overall if not for a few bad weather games in Cleveland that shrunk their point and yardage allowed totals. 

I expect the Titans to win this game easily, so I’ll eat the 5.5 points and take Tennessee this weekend.

BEST BET: Titans -5.5

Bill Enright (@BillEnright)

Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-13.5) | TOTAL: 50.5

We all saw Denver play without a quarterback in Week 12 and muster up just three points, but Drew Lock is expected to return for this AFC West matchup. But this number is all about the Chiefs. 

The Over/Under opened at 48.5, actually came down half a point and then took off and is now at 50.5. The over has hit in 3 out of 4 games when the Chiefs play an AFC West opponent, including the last time these two teams met earlier in the season and the over covered by 13 points.

BEST BET: OVER 50.5

Roy Larking (@StatsGuru6)

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (+2.5) | TOTAL: 45

Taysom Hill and the Saints (9-3) are playing back-to-back road games following a 31-3 win in Denver last week. New Orleans is riding an eight game winning streak that includes a 24-9 win at home against Atlanta two weeks ago. Matt Ryan and the Falcons (4-7) are playing a second straight home game after they crushed Las Vegas 43-6 last week. The lopsided win is surprising on a few levels – including Atlanta gaining just 304 total yards on offense. The Falcons have posted a 4-2 record under interim head coach Raheem Morris.

It’s difficult to get a handle on why the point spread is so low on this NFC South rivalry rematch. The Falcons have played better recently, and they have tape on Saints starter Taysom Hill, but Julio Jones and Todd Gurley are both expected to be inactive for this contest. The Saints are playing lights out on defense and have outscored their last four opponents by a 120-28 margin. New Orleans is looking to maintain their lead in the race for the top seed in the NFC playoffs. Not overthinking the low point spread - I am siding with the Saints here.

New Orleans is a -2.5 point favorite at DraftKings. Lay the line and bet on the Saints.

BEST BET: Saints -2.5 (this line has since moved to -3 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Steve Renner (@Steve_Renner)

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (+3.5) | TOTAL: 51

I personally think the Colts are going to win by double digits running away. Houston losing Will Fuller for the season will make it even more difficult for them to move the ball consistently down the field against a good Colts defense who will be looking to bounce back after a couple down weeks. The Colts announced early Friday morning that DeForest Buckner was activated from the COVID-19 list, a huge boost for their defense against a depleted Texans offense. I love Indianapolis as the better team to cover on the road and expect them to win by double digits.

BEST BET: Colts -3.5

Ian Ritchie (@SIGambling)

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (+2.5) | TOTAL: 45

Taysom Hill, meet Tim Tebow! Sean Payton knows how to win and has limited the playbook to exploit what Hill does best, pound the football. He is averaging 10 carries per game since getting the starting job and with that limited playbook they are using, they will continue to win. I am assuming Julio Jones and Todd Gurley will be inactive and in those situations, Matt Ryan has really struggled in the past. The Saints defense has been lights out and with a Falcons team without two top weapons, it will set up exactly how Sean Payton wants it too. The Saints are chasing the top seed in the NFC and would love nothing more than a first round bye in the playoffs. The motivation for the Saints is HIGH and they will take care of business in this NFC South rivalry and cover this spread that still sits under a FG.

BEST BET: Saints -2.5 (this line has since moved to -3 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Scott Atkins (@ScottFantasy)

Buffalo Bills @ San Francisco 49ers (PK) | TOTAL: 47.5

BEST BET: 49ers (PK)

Casey Olson (@Y2CASEY)

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs -13.5 | TOTAL: 50.5

Oddsmakers have the Chiefs winning by a couple touchdowns or so, and that shouldn't be an issue here. They've won 19 of 20 dating back into last season, and Patrick Mahomes will put on a show in the primetime spot this week, showing the masses just why he leads all players in Pro Bowl votes as announced this week. 

On the other side, let’s just forget about last week's 31-3 loss Denver had against the Saints, where they were stuck with literally no quarterback, and consider the fact that the Broncos actually average 19 points per game, and will be motivated to bounce back. Drew Lock is slated to be ready to go, so break out the rapping memes and let's see Lock and the Broncos score enough to force KC to put up 40+ to cover the spread, as they did in week 6, where the total flew past the number and hit 59. 

Primetime unders are 22-14 this season, though the last two Sunday nights we've seen 66 points put up.

BEST BET: DEN @ KC OVER 50.5

Gary Gramling, The MMQB (@GGramling_SI)

New Orleans Saints (-2.5) at Atlanta Falcons | TOTAL: 45

I know you’re nervous about the Falcons getting to see Taysom Hill for the second time in three weeks—I am too—but there are a couple of trends working in the Saints’ favor. The Falcons are coming off a blowout win over the Raiders, but they’ve failed to cover the last four times they played at home following a double digit-point win. 

Meanwhile, New Orleans has covered in each of their seven games against an opponent with a sub-.400 winning percentage since the start of 2018. Even if you throw out last week’s win over the QB-less Broncos, the Saints defense has dominated the past three weeks. When they met in Week 11, Atlanta’s receivers couldn’t separate (and they’ll likely be without Julio Jones for this one) and their offensive line couldn’t protect Matt Ryan.

BEST BET: Saints -2.5 (this line has since moved to -3 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Mitch Goldich, The MMQB (@mitchgoldich)

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons +2.5 | TOTAL: 45

Everyone knows the story line here, with Taysom Hill starting his third game in a row and facing the Falcons for the second time in three weeks. I know that conventional wisdom points to an advantage for Atlanta here—they have film on Hill now and a full week to prepare for him after not even knowing if he’d start over Jameis Winston until deep into the week last time. 

I think Sean Payton also has an advantage after seeing two weeks of Hill on the field full-time. None of us really knew what a Taysom Hill-led offense would look like or what he was capable of as a 60-minute player until Payton officially gave him the keys. I think the Saints also have a better idea of what works and what doesn’t, and that can help them game plan with Hill, despite Atlanta having seen him. 

The Falcons are on an impressive run since Raheem Morris took over for Dan Quinn, but I think the Saints are still the better team. I expect them to win this game, so with the spread under a field goal I was happy to make it a best bet.

BEST BET: Saints -2.5 (this line has since moved to -3 at DraftKings Sportsbook)