2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Models, Picks: A Formidable Test at Bay Hill

An elite field takes on one of the tougher courses on the PGA Tour this week at the Bay Hill Club & Lodge.

Shane Lowry has our expert's attention this week at Bay Hill. / Reinhold Matay-Imagn Images

The PGA Tour continues its Florida Swing at Bay Hill Club & Lodge to play the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational this week. The event has been a mainstay on Tour, appearing on the schedule every year since 1979. However, this year the tournament will be the fourth of eight “signature events” this season, which offer a $20 million prize pool.

Bay Hill Club & Lodge boasts a challenging par-72 layout, stretching 7,466 yards with Bermudagrass greens. The course can prove formidable, especially when the wind intensifies, though it possesses plenty of bite regardless of the weather conditions.

There will be 72 players in the field this week, with just about all of the top players on Tour teeing it up, including Xander Schauffele who will be making his first start since the Sentry in early January. The four players to receive sponsor exemptions into the event are Min Woo, Kee, Jackson Koivun, Mackenzie Hughes and Rafael Campos. The winner will receive 700 FedEx Cup points. 

Past winners at Bay Hill

• 2024: Scottie Scheffler (-15) 
• 2023: Kurt Kitayama (-9)
• 2022: Scottie Scheffler (-5)
• 2021: Bryson DeChambeau (-11)
• 2020: Tyrrell Hatton (-4)
• 2019: Francesco Molinari (-12)
• 2018: Rory McIlroy (-18)
• 2017: Marc Leishman (-11)
• 2016: Jason Day (-17)

Key stats for Bay Hill

Let’s take a look at five metrics key for Bay Hill to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

Strokes-gained approach

Approach is often the most important statistic, and this week will be no different. This is a difficult golf course and players will be penalized for missing greens in regulation.

Strokes-gained approach per round over past 24 rounds:

1. Justin Thomas (+1.22)
2. Nick Taylor (+1.05) 
3. Nicolai Højgaard (+0.96)
4. Jhonattan Vegas (+0.91)
5. Tommy Fleetwood (0.83)

Strokes-gained off the tee

To compete at Bay Hill, golfers will need an excellent performance off the tee. Distance is important due to the length of the course and its layout, but accuracy is just as important.

We have seen recent events in which golfers can get away with bad tee shots, but Bay Hill isn’t one of those courses. The rough is extremely thick and penal, so saving par after a poor tee shot isn’t likely.

Strokes-gained off the tee per round over past 24 rounds:

1. Taylor Pendrith (+1.04)
2. Aldrich Potgieter (+0.78)
3. Isaiah Salinda (+0.65)
4. Daniel Berger (+0.59)
5. Rory McIlroy (+0.59)

Strokes-gained putting on fast Bermudagrass

A major reason Bay Hill plays as one of the most difficult courses on Tour is the incredibly fast Bermudagrass greens. 

Strokes-gained putting on fast Bermudagrass past 24 rounds:

1. Max Greyserman (+1.32)
2. Thomas Detry (+0.95) 
3. Harris English (+0.87)
4. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.82)
5. Ben Griffin (+0.70)

Strokes-gained ball striking

While ball striking is in part off the tee and approach, I want the total tee-to-green package built into the model this week as it will take a well-rounded effort from tee to green to get it done at Bay Hill.

Strokes-gained ball striking per round over past 24 rounds:

1. Taylor Pendrith (+1.43)
2. Justin Thomas (+1.30) 
3. Jhonattan Vegas (+1.26) 
4. Tommy Fleetwood (+1.23) 
5. Scottie Scheffler (+1.17)

Par-5 scoring average

With four par-5s on the course along with multiple difficult holes, it will be important to take advantage of the gettable ones. 

Par-5 scoring average over past 36 rounds:

1. Adam Scott (4.35) 
2. Patrick Cantlay (4.40)
3. Taylor Pendrith (4.40)
4. Billy Horschel (4.40)
5. J.T. Poston (4.42)

Strokes-gained in Florida

This statistic will highlight players who have played good golf in the state of Florida. 

Strokes-gained in Florida over past 36 rounds:

1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.66)
2. Shane Lowry (+1.84) 
3. Viktor Hovland (+1.67)
4. Corey Conners (+1.55) 
5. Sam Burns (+1.51)

Comparable course rankings

This season, I am going to generate a rankings list of the best players cumulatively at the comparable courses. For Bay Hill, I am using PGA National, Quail Hollow, Memorial Park, Olympia Fields, Concession, Congaree, Torrey Pines (South), Muirfield Village and Trump National Doral.

Comparable course player rankings:

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Rory McIlroy
3. Xander Schauffele
4. Collin Morikawa
5. Viktor Hovland
6. Sungjae Im
7. Patrick Cantlay
8. Tommy Fleetwood
9. Sam Burns
10. Denny McCarthy

Arnold Palmer Invitational model rankings

Below, I have compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the key statistical categories discussed above: strokes-gained approach (24%), strokes-gained off the tee (20%), strokes-gained putting on fast Bermuda (10%), strokes-gained ball striking (12%), par-5 scoring average (12%), strokes-gained in Florida (12%), comparable course rankings (10%). 

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Xander Schauffele
3. Tommy Fleetwood
4. Rory McIlroy
5. Taylor Pendrith
6. Justin Thomas
7. Viktor Hovland
8. Sepp Straka
9. Collin Morikawa
10. Jhonattan Vegas 

Last week's picks results for the Cognizant Classic at the Palm Beaches:

Shane Lowry (22-1): T11
Daniel Berger (30-1): T24
Luke Clanton (50-1): T17
Billy Horschel (55-1): T24
Ryan Gerard (100-1): T24
Matteo Manassero (270-1): MC
Danny Willett (500-1): MC

2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational picks

Justin Thomas +2500 (DraftKings)

When Justin Thomas was winning at a high rate from 2017-20, he was gaining a massive amount of strokes on approach on the field on a regular basis. To kick off 2025, the two-time major champion is once again showing elevated iron play.

In his most recent start at the Genesis Invitational, JT led the field in approach, gaining 9.36 strokes on the field. That marks his best strokes-gained approach performance since the WGC Workday Championship in 2021.

Thomas has played pretty well at Bay Hill over the past two years. He finished T21 in 2023 and T12 in 2024 and gained strokes both off the tee and on approach in both starts.

Over his past 24 rounds, Thomas leads the field in strokes-gained approach. He also ranks second in strokes-gained ball striking, 11th in par-5 scoring average and 11th in strokes-gained total in Florida.

Many bettors will have Thomas fatigue, but he’s playing too well to not give him one more shot at breaking his 656-day winless drought this week at Bay Hill.

Patrick Cantlay +3000 (DraftKings)

Cantlay is another member of the "players who desperately need a win" crew who I believe has a real shot to break the seal at Bay Hill.

Cantlay is striping the ball in 2025, and I still have confidence that he’s one of the best eight or nine players in the world. In his four starts this season, the former Tour Championship winner has finished T15, T5, T33, T5. In his past two starts, he’s really picked up the iron play, gaining 5.52 and 4.84 strokes on approach consecutively. Pat didn't play too well here last year but finished T4 on debut in 2023.

Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy will be tough to beat this week, but Cantlay is one of the few players who I believe can go toe-to-toe with them on Sunday if he has his best stuff this week.

Tommy Fleetwood +3000 (DraftKings)

A Tommy Fleetwood pick will almost always be accompanied by an eyeroll from readers, and in most cases, that’s justified, but I simply can't resist backing Tommy at the spot I believe he’s most likely to win on the PGA Tour.

Looking back at previous winners at Bay Hill, the prevailing theme is that they’ve been playing well and gaining strokes on approach entering the week. Tommy is absolutely flushing the ball at the moment. Fleetwood has gained strokes both on approach and off the tee in every event this season, and in his most recent start at the Genesis Invitational he was fifth in the field in strokes-gained approach (+5.12).

Let’s state the obvious here: Tommy Fleetwood has not won in the United States. However, he’s won plenty of times. The Englishman has won seven times on the DP World Tour. Two of those times were against Rory McIlroy down the stretch and one was against Dustin Johnson.

Fleetwood is more than capable of winning a tournament on American soil. At Bay Hill, he can join Francesco Molinari and Tyrrell Hatton as European Ryder Cuppers to don the red cardigan.

Shane Lowry +6500 (FanDuel)

Last week, I backed Shane Lowry in a tournament that typically is a tough test. The overseeded fairways and soft conditions made PGA National play much easier, and Shane’s path to victory became a lot more difficult.

This week, I don’t expect Bay Hill to play easy. While Lowry may not be able to win a "birdie fest," I trust him over almost anyone in the field in difficult conditions. At the Cognizant Classic, the Irishman didn’t hit the ball all that well in his opening two rounds, but the ball striking was fantastic over the weekend. He gained 3.08 strokes on approach on Saturday, which led the field. He followed that up by gaining 1.96 on Sunday, which ranked eighth in the field.

Lowry struggled at Bay Hill for a while but seemed to figure something out last year when he finished third.

Lowry loves a tough test and is an incredible wind player with a strong around the green game. With a winner likely to come in the single digits under par this week, he should be able to grind his way into contention.

Min Woo Lee +8000 (DraftKings)

Min Woo Lee had a second consecutive top-15 finish at the Cognizant Classic last week, and although he may just like PGA National, I have a feeling we’ll see the Australian play some good golf in Florida over the course of his career.

Players will need a well-rounded game to win at Bay Hill, but two of the most important aspects of performing well at the course are being able to hit it well off the tee and scramble well around the greens. Over his past 24 rounds, Min Woo ranks 19th in strokes-gained off the tee and fourth in strokes-gained around the green.

Lee has made three starts at Bay Hill and missed the cut in his first two. Last year he improved in finishing 44th, but gained 3.8 strokes approach. It’s reasonable to think he may have had to take a few trips around the course to get a feel for it. As we saw last year with Lowry (MC, MC, MC, MC, 67th, third), course fit is probably more important than course form.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.