2025 BMW Championship Betting Models, Picks: Birdie-Makers, Bombers Primed for Caves Valley

A lengthened course and change to a par-70 doesn’t deter our expert from forecasting a birdie barrage.

Ludvig Åberg finished T2 at the BMW Championship last year / Christopher Hanewinckel-Imagn Images

The penultimate playoff event is here with the 2025 BMW Championship at our doorstep and a return to Caves Valley Golf Club in Owings Mills, Md. The course last hosted the BMW Championship in its rotation back in 2021, an event won by Patrick Cantlay in an absolute birdie fest. And all indications, despite this being one of the longest courses on the PGA Tour, are that we could see that yet again this week. 

The Tom Fazio-designed course has been lengthened for the PGA Tour since the 2021 BMW Championship, now measuring a blistering 7,601 yards on the scorecard, which also makes it the third-longest course on Tour since 2015. However, scoring won’t be at a premium because of that, even if par has been lowered from 72 to 70 for this week’s playoff event. So, while we likely won’t see the 27-under that Cantlay won with four years ago, the course that opened originally in 1991 should still yield plenty of birdies throughout the week. 

With this type of length at a par-70, though, it makes for an interesting test for the 50 players still alive in the FedEx Cup Playoffs, though Sepp Straka won’t play after withdrawing due to personal reasons. What stats and golfers should we be looking deeper into to find a winner at the BMW Championship? It’s time to dive into the numbers. 

Key Stats for Caves Valley

Strokes-gained approach over the last 24 rounds

While there will be an emphasis on bombers off the tee, the best way to set up scoring opportunities will now and forever be strong approach play. So that’s where we start the model with the hottest approach players over the past several weeks. 

1. Scottie Scheffler (1.50)
2. Hideki Matsuyama (1.24)
3. Kurt Kitayama (1.15)
4. Viktor Hovland (0.97)
5. Si Woo Kim (0.94)

Birdie-or-better percentage over the last 36 rounds

Considering that the winning score here in 2021 was 27 under par, birdies and scoring are going to be critical. The players who have shown a consistent track record with some sense of recency in converting those opportunities definitely have my attention. 

1. Kurt Kitayama (28.1%)
2. Scottie Scheffler (27.8%)
3. Harry Hall (25.9%)
4. Chris Gotterup (24.7%)
5. Rory McIlroy (24.7%)

Driving distance over the last 24 rounds

While Caves Valley might not be a perfect bomber’s paradise, it certainly doesn’t hurt—in fact, it gives players a distinct advantage on the long tract. It won’t matter without some supplementary good play, but how far guys are hitting off the tee should play a meaningful factor.

1. Chris Gotterup (313.0 yards)
2. Rory McIlroy (313.0 yards)
3. Kurt Kitayama (305.6 yards)
4. Taylor Pendrith (305.2 yards)
5. Ludvig Åberg (303.2 yards)

Strokes-gained total in easy scoring conditions over the last 36 rounds

Everyone in the top 10 back in 2021 was at least 18 under par and seven players were 20 or more strokes under par. Caves Valley offers the chance for players to go low and score, so it only stands to reason to highlight the players who have taken advantage of that in their recent careers. 

1. Scottie Scheffler (2.30)
2. Justin Thomas (1.84)
3. Ludvig Åberg (1.51)
4. Patrick Cantlay (1.37)
5. Rory McIlroy (1.33)

BMW Championship model rankings for Caves Valley

The model for this week’s BMW Championship is quite simple even if all the ingredients don’t make it seem so. We’re looking for long drivers with ball-striking pedigree and success in similar settings to Caves Valley. That means we start with strokes-gained approach over the last 24 rounds (15%), birdie-or-better percentage over the last 36 rounds (15%) and driving distance over the last 24 rounds (15%). We then add in strokes-gained tee to green over the last 24 rounds (10%), strokes-gained total in easy scoring conditions for the last 36 rounds (10%), strokes-gained total over the last eight years at Caves Valley, Olympia Fields, Castle Pines and Quail Hollow (10%), strokes-gained putting on bentgrass in the last 36 rounds (7.5%), strokes-gained ball striking in the last 24 rounds (7.5%) and then finish off with proximity from 150-200 yards over the last 36 rounds (5%) and proximity from 200+ yards in the last 36 rounds (5%). With all of that in the pot, here’s what we get when we run the model for this week.

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Kurt Kitayama
3. Ludvig Åberg
4. Xander Schauffele
5. J.J. Spaun
6. Viktor Hovland
7. Patrick Cantlay
8. Tommy Fleetwood
9. Hideki Matsuyama
10. Ben Griffin

2025 BMW Championship picks

Rory McIlroy +800 (DraftKings)

The odds might be short, but I love the spot for Rory McIlroy coming off of skipping last week in Memphis. Perhaps due to his confessed post-Masters malaise, Rory wasn’t displaying anything close to elite form for much of the summer. What dropped off most jarringly, however, was the approach play. 

Over the past three events for McIlroy, though, we’ve seen that rebound and, with the help of a hot putter, the results have shown that with a T6 at Travelers, T2 at the Scottish and T7 at the British Open. There’s never any questioning McIlroy’s ability off the tee or to score in bunches, both of which are things that Caves Valley will demand of a champion. But that uptick in approach play of late screams to me that he’s trending in the right direction to potentially pull off the double at the BMW and then the Tour Championship. 

Throw in the fact that he’s heading to a Fazio design, the same architect as Quail Hollow, and finishing fourth here in 2021, don’t forget about Rory this week. 

Ludvig Åberg +2200 (FanDuel)

Since his win at Torrey for the Genesis, it’s not unfair to characterize 2025 as a major disappointment for Ludvig Åberg. Sure, he continued to raise eyebrows at Augusta with a solo seventh finish, But he had just two finishes inside the top 35 in seven starts from then until the end of June. 

Things have started to trend back up of late for the young Swede, though, with a T8 at the Scottish, T23 at the Open and T9 at the FedEx St. Jude last week. And the numbers make it pretty obvious why that’s the case. Åberg’s approach play has returned, ranking 11th in strokes-gained approach over the last 24 rounds and fourth in strokes-gained ball-striking. He’s also the most accurate of the top 5 players in the field in driving distance, hitting 59% of his fairways over the last 24 rounds. And if that weren’t enough, he’s quietly been 10th in strokes-gained putting on bentgrass over the last 36 rounds. 

It’s all shaping up for a playoff surge for Åberg this week and, as high as I am on Rory’s chances this week, I actually might like Ludvig a bit better. 

Kurt Kitayama +4500 (BetMGM)

Let’s just say it as plainly as possible when it comes to Kurt Kitayama. If putting weren’t part of the game, he might be in the conversation right now for the best players in the world. Of course, that’s not reality on the PGA Tour and he comes into the BMW ranking 46th out of 49 players in strokes-gained putting on bentgrass greens over the last 36 rounds. 

Though it wasn’t on bent, Kitayama has overcome the short game recently, though. He won the 3M and showed up again with a T9 last week. It’s the other metrics that will simply wow you as he’s third in strokes-gained approach over the last 24 rounds and first in birdie-or-better percentage over the last 36 rounds. Doing that while also being top 5 in driving distance and with a glimmer of hope that the putter might not actively be working against him right now, there’s so much to love. 

Admittedly, this could look silly if Kitayama comes out and loses three strokes to the field on Thursday at Caves Valley. But there’s too much positive in his game right now to not take a swing at a place that should put him in contention if the putting is even average this week. 

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