2025 Cognizant Classic Betting Models, Picks: Surviving a Stern Test at PGA National

PGA National is one of the toughest courses on the PGA Tour and will ask the best of players’ games.

The PGA Tour heads to PGA National to play this week's Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches. / GREG LOVETT/PALM BEACH POST / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

After a fantastic West Coast swing that produced wins by stars like Rory McIlroy and Ludvig Åberg, followed by a pit stop in Mexico, the PGA Tour heads to PGA National to begin its Florida swing and play the Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches. The event was previously called the “Honda Classic” prior to last season. 

The tournament will be a significant challenge for golfers, as PGA National is one of the most difficult courses on the PGA Tour.

PGA National is a 7,054-yard par-71 and features Bermudagrass greens.  Originally a Jack Nicklaus design, it was redesigned by Tom Fazio. The course features the infamous “Bear Trap” on holes 15-17, three of the toughest holes on Tour. Wind tends to play a factor, which makes the scoring even more challenging.

The field is solid but not quite as strong as it’s been in the past. Some notable players in the field include Russell Henley, Shane Lowry, Sungjae Im, Billy Horschel, Min Woo Lee and Luke Clanton. 

Past winners at PGA National

• 2024: Austin Eckroat (-17)
• 2023: Chris Kirk (-14)
• 2022: Sepp Straka (-10)
• 2021: Matt Jones (-12)
• 2020: Sungjae Im (-6)
• 2019: Keith Mitchell (-9)
• 2018: Justin Thomas (-8)
• 2017: Rickie Fowler (-12)
• 2016: Adam Scott (-9)
• 2015: Padraig Harrington (-6)

Key Stats for PGA National

Let's take a look at five key metrics for PGA National to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category.

Strokes-gained approach

Strokes-gained approach has been far and away the biggest indicator of the winner at PGA National. Hitting the target is especially important with all of the water at the course.

Strokes-gained approach over past 24 rounds:

1. J.J. Spaun (+0.92)
2. Jhonattan Vegas (+0.92)
3. Sepp Straka (+0.82)
4. Kurt Kitayama (+0.77)
5. Andrew Putnam (+0.75) 

Good-drive percentage

Good drives will be very important this week.

Golfers who patiently make their way around the course and stay disciplined will be rewarded. Spraying it off of the tee will be a major issue around PGA National and the strokes will add up in a hurry.

Good-drive percentage over past 24 rounds:

1. Joe Highsmith (88.7%)
2. Brice Garnett (87.9%)
3. Austin Eckroat (87.9%)
4. Taylor Pendrith (87.9%)
5. Ryan Gerard (87.5%)

Par-4 scoring average

Par-4 scoring is especially important at PGA National with only two par-5s on the course. Golfers will need to find a way to score on the par-4s if they want to win the tournament.

Holes 1, 4, 8 and 13 are the par 4s that generate the most birdies.

Par-4 scoring average over past 24 rounds:

1. Harry Hall (3.87)
2. Russell Henley (3.90) 
3. Michael Kim (3.90)
4. Daniel Berger (3.90)
5. Ryan Gerard (3.90) 

Strokes-gained ball striking

Historically, strokes-gained ball striking has been much more indicative of success at PGA National than strokes-gained short game. The difficult track rewards a solid tee-to-green game, which is the key to avoiding trouble.

Strokes-gained ball striking over past 24 rounds:

1. Taylor Pendrith (+1.43)
2. Kurt Kitayama (+1.41) 
3. Jhonattan Vegas (+1.22)
4. Joel Dahmen (+1.12) 
5. Sepp Straka (+1.07)

Strokes-gained off the tee with less than driver on very difficult driving courses

PGA National has some very tight driving holes. Players will have to go with less than driver quite a bit, and the tee shots are still difficult. 

Strokes-gained off the tee with less than driver on very difficult driving courses over past 36 rounds:

1. Sungjae Im (+0.90)
2. Brian Harman (+0.56)
3. Cameron Young (+0.56) 
4. Min Woo Lee (+0.52) 
5. Adam Schenk (+0.44)

Strokes-gained in Florida

This statistic will highlight players who have played good golf in the state of Florida. 

Strokes-gained in Florida over past 36 rounds:

1. Shane Lowry (+1.70)
2. Chris Kirk (+1.40) 
3. Russell Henley (+1.23)
4. Ben Griffin (+1.07) 
5. Cameron Young (+1.02)

Strokes-gained in difficult or very difficult conditions

PGA National is one of the most difficult courses on the PGA Tour. Including this stat will highlight some players who thrive when scoring is difficult.

Strokes-gained in difficult or very difficult conditions over past 36 rounds:

1. Russell Henley (+1.49)
2. Shane Lowry (+1.15)
3. Denny McCarthy (+1.11) 
4. Billy Horschel (+1,06) 
5. Brian Harman (+1.01)

Comparable courses rankings

This season, I am going to generate a “mini model” of the best players at each of the comparable courses. For PGA National, I am using Bay Hill, Waialae, Concession, Innisbrook, TPC Sawgrass, Colonial, TPC Twin Cities and TPC Southwind.

Comparable course player rankings:

1. Russell Henley
2. Lee Hodges
3. Adam Schenk
4. Mac Meissner
5. Daniel Berger
6. Emiliano Grillo
7. Brian Harman
8. Shane Lowry
9. Andrew Putnam
10. Lucas Glover

The Cognizant Classic model rankings

Below, I have compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed: strokes-gained approach (22%), good-drive percentage (18%), strokes-gained Par-4 (10 %), strokes-gained ball striking (12%), strokes-gained in difficult or very difficult conditions (10%), strokes-gained off the tee with less than driver on very difficult driving courses (10%), strokes-gained in Florida (10%) and comparable course rankings (8%). 

1. Russell Henley
2. Daniel Berger
3. Sepp Straka
4. Taylor Pendrith
5. Jhonattan Vegas
6. Shane Lowry
7. Kurt Kitayama
8. Lucas Glover
9. Doug Ghim
10. Alex Smalley

Last week's picks results for the Mexico Open at VidantaWorld:

Akshay Bhatia (22-1): 9th
Stephan Jaeger (30-1): T6
Jake Knapp (40-1): T25
Nicolai Hojgaard (55-1): 8th
Aldrich Potgieter (100-1): 2nd
Ricky Castillo (100-1): T55

2025 Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches Picks

Shane Lowry +2000  (DraftKings)

Shane Lowry has struggled to seal the deal on the PGA Tour, but with his history at PGA National, I believe he deserves a bit more respect than this opening price. 

In his last three times playing this tournament, his worst finish is a tie for fifth. He finished solo runner-up in 2022 as well as fourth last year, with the T5 coming in 2023. The Irishman is perfectly suited for PGA National and the Florida resident is incredibly comfortable playing in the Sunshine State. 

Over his last 36 rounds, Lowry ranks first in strokes-gained total in Florida and second in strokes-gained total on difficult or very difficult courses. He’s a strong wind player and has the type of game that can survive a difficult test. 

There have been plenty of close calls for Lowry at PGA National, but I believe this is the year he may turn a good performance into a victory. 

Daniel Berger +3000  (DraftKings)

At first glance, this price seems a bit steep for Daniel Berger, but a deeper look reveals that the Cognizant Classic feels like the most likely spot for the 31-year-old to get another PGA Tour win under his belt. 

Berger absolutely loves PGA National and has had some extremely close calls at the golf course. He finished runner-up in 2015 as well as fourth in both 2020 and 2022. He missed the cut last season, but he lost more than five strokes putting in two rounds when he gained strokes putting in his previous five trips to the course. 

So far in 2025, Berger has looked a lot like the Daniel Berger we knew before he was plagued by injuries over a two-year span. In his past two starts, he’s finished second at the WM Phoenix Open and 12th at the Genesis Invitational with an elevated field. 

Over his past 24 rounds, Berger ranks second in par-4 scoring and eighth in strokes-gained ball striking. He’s a straight driver of the golf ball who loves playing in Florida where he grew up (Plantation) and still lives (Jupiter). 

This feels like a spot Berger has his sights set on to prove he’s still a top-15 player on the PGA Tour. 

Luke Clanton +4000  (DraftKings)

Luke Clanton is making his final start on a sponsor’s exemption with a chance to earn his PGA Tour card with a made cut. He picked up his fifth collegiate victory last week as well as a team win for Florida State University, and should love playing where he grew up extremely close to Palm Beach Gardens.

Clanton is an incredible ball striker, which makes him well suited for the difficult test he’ll face this week at PGA National. 

I believe the Florida swing will be when we see the 21-year-old have the most success over the first few years of his career. 

Billy Horschel +5500  (DraftKings)

Billy Horschel is coming off of two consecutive missed cuts at the WM Phoenix Open and the Genesis Invitational, however, the underlying numbers don’t give any cause for concern going forward. Horschel gained strokes on approach in both of those starts and really struggled around the green and with the putter, which is not something I’d expect to happen in his home state of Florida. 

Horschel has had success at PGA National in the past. In his last eight trips to the course, the 38-year-old has three top-10 finishes as well as an additional two top-20 finishes. Last year, he finished T9 at the event despite a similar unsuccessful West Coast swing. 

Over his past 36 rounds, Billy ranks ninth in strokes-gained total in Florida and fourth in strokes-gained total in difficult or very difficult conditions. 

This is a good price for a player who carries considerable win equity and has 10 professional victories to his name. 

Ryan Gerard +10000 (DraftKings)

Ryan Gerard is a relatively unknown player but has gotten off to a strong start in 2025 after showing promising signs early in his career. 

Gerard finished 17th last week in Mexico and hit the ball great off the tee, where he ranked 12th in the field. Prior to Mexico, Gerard finished T15 at the Farmers where he gained 2.4 strokes off the tee. 

In 2023, the 25-year-old finished fourth at the tournament and gained over six strokes on approach. PGA National is a spot Gerard loves. In 2015, he won the AJGA Polo Golf Junior Classic at the course. He also has some other strong Florida results and currently resides in Jupiter. 

Gerard is the type of well-rounded player who has the ability to triumph at a difficult course like PGA National. 

Matteo Manassero +27000 (DraftKings)

Matteo Manassero is another player I highlighted in my preseason players to watch article. He started the year strong at courses that don't necessarily fit his skill set. PGA National on the other hand, should be perfect for the Italian.

Manassero played the then-Honda Classic a few times when he first hit the scene. He finished T29 in 2013 and T12 in 2014. He also has some other similar Florida success and finished T8 at the 2014 Valspar.

Manassero is short off the tee but accurate. He has a really strong around the green game and can putt well enough to grind out a solid score on a tough scoring day. A Manassero win would be one of the best possible stories in golf.

Danny Willett +50000 (DraftKings)

Danny Willett is a golfer who I always like to take a look at in difficult tests. His only PGA Tour win to this point came at the Masters with a winning score of 5 under. He also has seven DP World Tour victories, two of which were Rolex Series events including a win at Wentworth. 

Willett has played some solid golf in Florida during his time on the PGA Tour. The Englishman resides in Orlando and is coming off of strong finish in his most recent start at Torrey Pines. He finished T9 and was very accurate off the tee and putted well, which are good signs for a player like Willett. 

If this event gets windy and difficult, Willett is the type of longshot I’d like to have on my betting card. 

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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