2025 Farmers Insurance Open Betting Models, Picks: A Stern Test at Torrey Pines

After three weeks of low-scoring affairs, players will be challenged on one of the Tour's tougher courses starting Wednesday.
The PGA Tour will head to Torrey Pines for this week's Farmers Insurance Open.
The PGA Tour will head to Torrey Pines for this week's Farmers Insurance Open. / Ray Acevedo-Imagn Images

The PGA Tour season ramps up this week as we head to Torrey Pines for the 2025 Farmers Insurance Open.

To many, this event marks the true start of the PGA Tour season as it is played at a historic course that will provide a difficult test, which is something golf fans have been craving after three weeks of low-scoring events.

The event will be played from Wednesday through Saturday this week to avoid going against the NFL conference championship games and allow golf fans to enjoy both sports.

Torrey Pines Golf Club (South) is a par-72 measuring 7,765 yards. Golfers will play three rounds on the South Course and one round on the North Course. The South Course is the far more difficult of the two and features Poa annua greens. The North Course is 7,258 yards and features Bentgrass greens.

The 2025 Farmers Insurance Open field is a full-field event with 156 golfers. The field is lacking a bit this week with more signature events on the horizon. Hideki Matsuyama, Ludvig Åberg, Tony Finau, Max Homa and Sungjae Im will be teeing it up at Torrey Pines this week.

Past Winners at the Farmers Insurance Open

  • 2024: Matthieu Pavon (-13)
  • 2023: Max Homa (-13)
  • 2022: Luke List (-15)
  • 2021: Patrick Reed (-14)
  • 2020: Marc Leishman (-15)
  • 2019: Justin Rose (-21)
  • 2018: Jason Day (-10)
  • 2017: Jon Rahm (-13)
  • 2016: Brandt Snedeker (-6)
  • 2015: Jason Day (-9)

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Torrey Pines South to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category

Strokes-gained approach

Hitting greens will be important due to the difficulty of the around the green areas at Torrey Pines. Strokes gained-approach has been the most indicative statistic of top-10 finishers at the course historically.

Strokes-gained approach over past 24 rounds:

  1. Hideki Matsuyama (+1.21)
  2. Kurt Kitayama (+1.03)
  3. Matteo Manassero (+0.91)
  4. Luke Clanton (+0.91)
  5. J.J. Spaun (+0.90)

Strokes-gained off the tee on “hard” driving courses

Torrey Pines is a long course and distance will absolutely be a major factor. Elite drivers of the golf ball tend to play well at the Farmers. 

Strokes-gained off the tee on “hard” driving courses over past 36 rounds:

  1. Kevin Yu (+0.80)
  2. Patrick Fishburn (+0.75)
  3. Ludvig Åberg (+0.74)
  4. Rico Hoey (+0.71) 
  5. Thirston Lawrence (+0.68) 

Strokes-gained putting on POA

We typically see a lot of golfers play well in this area year after year. One determining factor in the consistent results is whether or not golfers prefer the Poa out west to other surfaces.

Great Poa putters typically play very well in California.

Strokes-gained putting (Poa) in past 24 rounds:

  1. Taylor Montgomery (+1.20)
  2. Max Homa (+1.00) 
  3. Will Gordon (+0.99)
  4. S.H. Kim (+0.94) 
  5. Matthieu Pavon (+0.93)

Course history

This statistic will highlight players who have excelled at Torrey Pines South over the course of their career.

Course history over past 50 rounds:

  1. Tony Finau (+3.08)
  2. Jason Day (+2.67) 
  3. Ryan Palmer (+2.16)
  4. Hideki Matsuyama (+2.09)
  5. Justin Rose (+1.85)

Strokes-gained on “very difficult” courses

Torrey Pines South can play brutally difficult. Players who are accustomed to playing well on tough courses should be well equipped for the challenge. 

Strokes-gained on “very difficult” courses past 36 rounds:

  1. Will Zalatoris (+2.09)
  2. Hideki Matsuyama (+1.71)
  3. Ludvig Åberg (+1.63)
  4. Max Homa (+1.54) 
  5. Shane Lowry (+1.70)

Comparable course rankings

New this year, I am going to generate a “mini model” of the best players at each of the comparable courses. For the Farmers Insurance Open, I am using Muirfield Village, Riviera, Augusta National, Quail Hollow, Oak Hill, Bethpage (Black), Olympia Fields, TPC Harding Park and Bay Hill.

Comparable course player rankings:

  1. Max Homa
  2. Ludvig Åberg
  3. Will Zalatoris
  4. Sungjae Im
  5. Shane Lowry
  6. Hideki Matsuyama
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Harris English
  9. Si Woo Kim
  10. Kevin Streelman

Statistical model

Below, I have reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are a combination of strokes-gained approach (25%), strokes-gained off the tee on hard driving courses (15%), course history (15%), strokes-gained very difficult (15%), comparable course rankings (12%) and strokes-gained putting on Poa (18%).

  1. Ludvig Åberg
  2. Hideki Matsuyama
  3. Jason Day
  4. Will Zalatoris
  5. Lanto Griffin
  6. Sungjae Im
  7. Justin Rose
  8. Max Homa
  9. Sam Stevens
  10. Tony Finau

Last week's picks for the American Express:

Davis Thompson (40-1): T51
Cameron Young (45-1): MC
Brian Harman (55-1): MC
Sepp Straka (70-1): WINNER
Michael Thorbjornsen (80-1): MC
Cameron Davis (80-1): T18
Michael Kim (125-1): T43
Matthias Schmid (125-1): MC

2025 Farmers Insurance Open Picks

Ludvig Åberg +1200 (DraftKings)

Although Ludvig Åberg has arguably already established himself as a star on the PGA Tour, he has yet to have a signature win in the U.S. The Swede's Ryder Cup performance in Rome was fantastic, but
Åberg still needs a big win to establish himself on Tour.

Torrey Pines, which is a course that rewards golfers who are elite off the tee, should be the perfect breakout spot for the mega-talented 25-year-old. In the field, Åberg ranks third in strokes-gained off the tee on “hard” driving courses and third in strokes-gained total on “very difficult” courses.

Åberg had a knee injury last season but appears to be back to full health. In his first start of the season at the Sentry, he gained almost four strokes on approach on his way to a T5 finish. He got a chance to see the course last year and did well in his Torrey Pines debut, finishing T9 and gaining over six strokes on approach.

Åberg is on track for greatness; a triumph at a historic course could serve as the perfect springboard for the next step in his career.

Sahith Theegala +3000 (DraftKings)

Sahith Theegala is a player I always look to target during the West Coast swing. The 2020 Haskins Award winner from Pepperdine is extremely comfortable in the area, and was born in Orange, Calif., and raised in Chino Hills. His success in California led me to bet him at the 2023 Fortinet Championship, where he earned his first PGA Tour win.

Theegala has felt as if he’s been ready to emerge as a star on Tour over the past few years, but has yet to win an event that would project him into the next tier. A win at Torrey Pines would fit the bill, and there’s reason to believe he can excel here. Theegala ranks 7th in my comparable-course rankings and is an excellent putter on Poa greens. He also has the soft touch around the greens to be able to navigate a firm and fast Torrey Pines.

Theegala hasn’t been incredibly sharp to start the season, but a trip to Torrey, where he finished T4 in 2023, should ignite the 27-year-old's 2025 campaign.

Gary Woodland +8000 (DraftKings)

Gary Woodland has looked great to start 2025. After taking time to work his way back from brain surgery, the 40-year-old finished T16 at the Sony Open. Most importantly Gary’s driver, which has historically been his best asset, looked phenomenal. He gained 4.28 strokes off the tee, which ranked 5th in the field.

Woodland has a history of success on the West Coast. He won the 2019 U.S. Open at Pebble Beach and has five top-20 finishes at Torrey Pines. He also finished T9 at Riviera in 2023 and won the 2018 WM Phoenix Open.

A healthy and confident Woodland still has enough in the tank to add a big win to his already exceptional career.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Matt Vincenzi
MATT VINCENZI

Matt Vincenzi is a contributor to the Breaking and Trending News team at Sports Illustrated, covering golf. Before joining SI in October 2024, he worked as a golf writer for GolfWRX and the Action Network. He is a graduate of Bridgewater State University and has been covering professional golf for five years.