2025 Mexico Open at VidantaWorld Betting Models, Picks: Bombers to Thrive in Mexico

Long hitters and paspalum specialists will have the upper hand at Vidanta Vallarta.

Aldrich Potgieter leads the Mexico Open at VidantaWorld field in driving distance. / Abe Arredondo-Imagn Images

For the fourth consecutive year, the PGA Tour heads to Puerto Vallarta to play the Mexico Open at VidantaWorld.

The Greg Norman-designed Vidanta Vallarta is a par-71 measuring 7,456 yards. Prior to its inaugural event, the course was extended by over 250 yards to make it PGA Tour-ready, with nine new tee boxes and 106 new bunkers added to stiffen the test for the professionals.

The course features three par-5s. Also, the par-4 7th will be drivable for the longer hitters, but the golfers will have to risk taking on some water if they want to go for it.

The field this week will consist of 132 players. Some notable players in the field include Akshay Bhatia, Rasmus Højgaard, Michael Kim, Sam Stevens and Stephan Jaeger.

Past winners at Vidanta Villarta

• 2024: Jake Knapp (-19)
• 2023: Tony Finau (-24)
• 2022: Jon Rahm (-17)

Key stats for Vidanta Villarta

Let’s take a look at five key metrics for Vidanta Vallarta to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category.

Driving distance

At almost 7,500 yards, Vidanta Villarta is a long par-71. The rough shouldn’t be much of a factor this week, which gives the advantage to the long hitters in the field.

Average driving distance over past 36 rounds:

1. Aldrich Potgieter (+323.5)
2. Jose Luis Ballester (+320.2)
3. Paul Waring (+312.3)
4. Alejandro Tosti (+311.8)
5. Nicolai Højgaard (+311.5)

Strokes-gained ball striking

With the course playing long and greens likely being receptive, elite ball strikers should have an advantage more so than those with a good short game and strong putting.

Strokes-gained ball striking over past 24 rounds:

1. Kurt Kitayama (+1.41)
2. Jackson Suber (+1.39)
3. Rasmus Højgaard (+1.23)
4. Scott Piercy (+1.21)
5. Joel Dahmen (+1.12)

Course history

The first three editions of the event have produced plenty of leaderboard similarity. I’m looking to target players who like the golf course. 

Course history over past 12 rounds:

1. Patrick Rodgers (+2.25)
2. Stephan Jaeger (+1.92)
3. Carson Young (+1.91)
4. C.T. Pan (+1.80)
5. Emiliano Grillo (+1.59)

Strokes-gained total in weak fields with “easy” scoring conditions

Historically, this course has played pretty easy, and this is one of the weakest fields we will see this year on the PGA Tour. 

Strokes-gained total in weak fields with “easy” scoring conditions over past 36 Rounds:

1. Ben Griffin (+2.63) 
2. Alex Smalley (+2.44) 
3. Kevin Yu (+2.31)
4. Keith Mitchell (+2.19)
5. Chan Kim (+1.78)

Strokes-gained total on driver-heavy courses with low rough penalty

Driver is the club of choice for most players on most holes at Vidanta Vallarta. There is little penalty for missing the fairway and hitting it in the rough. 

Strokes-gained total on driver heavy courses with low rough penalty over past 36 Rounds:

1. Chan Kim (+2.18)
2. Akshay Bhatia (+1.96)
3. Tyler McCumber (+1.66)
4. C.T. Pan (+1.55)
5. Vincent Norrman (+1.50)

Strokes-gained total in the Caribbean

Although Mexico has a unique culture and history that is distinct from the Caribbean, this statistic brings in all rounds from Corales Puntacana Championship, Puerto Rico Open and the Bermuda Championship, which all have close leaderboard correlation to the Mexico Open. This also brings in courses that feature Paspalum greens.

Strokes-gained total in the Caribbean over past 36 rounds:

1. Akshay Bhatia (+1.87)
2. Andrew Putnam (+1.83)
3. Alex Smalley (+1.81)
4. Justin Lower (+1.77)
5. Matt Wallace (+1.67)

Comparable courses rankings

New this year, I am going to generate a “mini model” of the best players at each of the comparable courses. For Vidanta Vallarta, I am using Corales, Grand Reserve, El Cardonal Diamante, Congaree, TPC Craig Ranch, Concession, Plantation at Kapalua, Memorial Park and TPC Scottsdale.

Comparable course player rankings:

1. Alex Smalley
2. Joe Highsmith
3. Akshay Bhatia
4. Michael Kim
5. Tyler McCumber
6. Jacob Bridgeman
7. Taylor Moore
8. Justin Lower
9. Stephan Jaeger
10. Kurt Kitayama

The Mexico Open at VidantaWorld model rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed: driving distance (20%), strokes-gained ball striking (24%), course history (10%), comparable course rankings (10%), strokes-gained total in weak fields with easy scoring conditions (12%) and strokes-gained total in the Caribbean (12%).

1. Alex Smalley
2. Patrick Rodgers
3. Stephan Jaeger
4. Greyson Sigg
5. Sam Stevens
6. Nate Lashley
7. Vincent Norrman
8. Michael Kim
9. Ben Griffin
10. Kurt Kitayama

Last week's picks results for the Genesis Invitational:

Collin Morikawa (16-1): T17
Keegan Bradley (55-1): T34
Viktor Hovland (65-1): MC
Adam Scott (80-1): T37
Akshay Bhatia (90-1): T9

2025 Mexico Open at VidantaWorld picks:

Akshay Bhatia +1800 (DraftKings)

Akshay Bhatia is arguably the most talented player in the field, and I believe this is a perfect spot for the 23-year-old. 

Last week, Bhatia hit the ball extremely well at Torrey Pines, and ranked fifth in strokes-gained ball striking. He gained 4.4 strokes on approach in an elite field, demonstrating his ability to spike with the irons on any given week. 

Bhatia has been great on the coast, and was fourth in his debut at Vidanta Vallarta in 2023. He’s a great wind player as evidenced by his wins at the Great Exuma Classic on the Korn Ferry Tour as well as the Valero Texas Open on the PGA Tour. 

I don’t see any reason to believe Akshay isn’t the player to beat this week in Mexico. 

Stephan Jaeger +3000 (DraftKings)

Stephan Jaeger notched his first win on the PGA Tour at the 2024 Houston Open, which I believe was a huge confidence boost going forward for the German.

Jaeger found himself early in the season at the Sony Open and finished T3, but struggled a bit in the weeks to follow. Last week, the 35-year-old really struggled with the putter, which led to a T44 finish at the Genesis Invitational. While the finish doesn't look great on paper, Jaeger struck the ball immaculately. He gained 4.2 strokes on approach, which ranked 14th in the loaded field.

In his three starts at the course, Jaeger has finished 15th, 18th and third. I believe this is an extremely palatable price for a good player who loves the golf course.

Jake Knapp +4000 (DraftKings)

Jake Knapp won this event last year due to his ability to hit the driver long and straight. He isn’t the most polished player around the greens, but Vidanta Vallarta is a place that a below-average short game can be overcome.

Knapp’s game fell off of a cliff for a while, but recently he’s found what made him successful last season once again. At last week’s Genesis Invitational, the former nightclub bouncer ranked fifth in strokes-gained approach and 15th in strokes-gained off the tee.

I rarely bet players to repeat after winning an event the year prior, but as Tony Finau and Jon Rahm have demonstrated, Vidanta Vallarta is the type of course that allows for strong performances year after year.

Nicolai Højgaard +5500 (BetMGM)

Nicolai Højgaard is a boom or bust-type player. It’s tough to tell when he’s going to play well, but when he does, he has the ability to spike for a victory.

Højgaard hits the ball an extremely long way and ranks fifth in the field in average driving distance. He can get into trouble when he sprays it off the tee, but Vidanta Vallarta is a pretty wide golf course where players can afford to be slightly off-target.

In his most recent start at the WM Phoenix Open, Nicolai gained 5.3 strokes on approach, which ranked seventh in the field.

The results on the PGA Tour haven’t quite matched the talent level throughout Højgaard's career so far, but he's still a Ryder Cupper and world-class player who has the ability to win at a straightforward golf course.

Aldrich Potgieter +10000 (DraftKings)

In the leadup to the 2025 season, I highlighted the five newcomers to the PGA Tour who I thought would make an immediate impact. One of those players was Aldrich Potgieter. When looking at the schedule, the Mexico Open at Vidanta was one of the places that jumped off the page as an event that the 20-year-old could contend in. 

Averaging 323.5 yards off the tee, Potgieter is the longest hitter in the field. As we’ve seen in the first three editions of the event, there are “bombers” all over the leaderboard. In his most recent start at Torrey Pines, the South African led the field, gaining 7.2 strokes off the tee. 

Potgieter struggles around the greens, which was evident in his blown lead at the Nedbank Golf Challenge in South Africa in the fall. However, at Vidanta Vallarta, around the green play shouldn't be a major factor. In the past, players who’ve done well at the course haven’t had to make too many difficult up-and-downs on their way to victory. 

Potgieter is one of the most promising young players on Tour. Despite his youth and inexperience, I believe he has the talent to win now. 

Ricky Castillo +10000 (DraftKings)

Ricky Castillo is a player who was extremely highly regarded on the amateur scene prior to turning professional, where he won immediately on the Korn Ferry Tour.

Castillo had a terrific showing in his most recent start at the Farmers Insurance Open, where he finished 15th in the strong field. The Florida Gators's all-time leader in career stroke average hits the ball long and straight, which will play nicely at Vidanta Vallarta.

The 23-year-old has a strong pedigree and participated in both the 2020 and 2021 Palmer Cup as well as the 2021 Walker Cup. If he finds himself in contention, Castillo won’t shy away from the challenge.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.