2025 Travelers Championship Betting Models, Picks: Skilled Scorers Needed at TPC River Highlands

Our expert is throwing out last week's major for his top favorite at the signature event.

Patrick Cantlay, Travelers Championship / Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

J.J. Spaun is a U.S. Open champion, just like we all expected. But now, a good portion of the major championship field and golf fans alike are going to get a shock to the system as we head to the 2025 Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands. While the Cromwell, Conn., tract is a familiar and fun one, it’s hard to overstate the vast difference between it and Oakmont, so the juxtaposition of these two courses back to back will, if nothing else, be entertaining.

TPC River Highlands is a par-70 measuring just 6,841 yards as one of the shorter courses on the PGA Tour. It was opened in 1928 but a Pete Dye redesign was completed in 1984. With bentgrass/Poa greens and with the way the length of today’s PGA Tour players has gotten so out of control, it’s become less of a positional or accuracy test and allowed more bomb-and-gouge type of players to have success. One thing’s for sure, though, we can see some low scores at the Travelers Championship (shouts to Jim Furyk and his 58!). 

We’ve seen winners clear 20 under in each of the past two years at this event and, with this being a signature event and only a 72-player field, we’re likely to see scoring reach that level again. How do we find a winner in that, though? Let’s dive into the model and see what we can find. 

Key Stats for TPC River Highlands

Strokes-gained approach in the last 24 rounds

TPC River Highlands rewards high-level approach play, so the model has to begin with the players who have been putting on a ball-striking display over the past several tournaments.

1. Scottie Scheffler (1.85)
2. Sepp Straka (1.14)
3. Shane Lowry (1.04)
4. Ryan Fox (0.93)
5. Viktor Hovland (0.79)

Birdie-or-better percentage over the last 36 rounds

The simple truth of the matter is that TPC River Highlands, even as a par-70, is going to give up some low scores. To win, players have to be able to fill it up. So we have to take a long look at the players who have been racking up birdies or better the most consistently as of late. 

1. Scottie Scheffler (26.2%)
2. Matti Schmid (25.3%)
3. Luke Clanton (25.3%)
4. Sam Burns (24.7%)
5. Justin Thomas (24.1%)

Strokes-gained total in easy conditions over the last 36 rounds

Again playing into the fact that TPC River Highlands isn’t the sternest test these guys will see (especially after spending a week at Oakmont), we need to see how players have performed on easy golf courses. The ability to separate in such instances is vital for a week such as this. 

1. Scottie Scheffler (2.36)
2. Patrick Cantlay (2.05)
3. Justin Thomas (1.86)
4. Rory McIlroy (1.59)
5. Ludvig Åberg (1.57)

Proximity from 100-150 yards over the last 24 rounds.

Not all approaches are created equal, which could be pivotal to modeling TPC River Highlands correctly. Measuring well under 7,200 yards, this is a course where you’re going to see these players have a lot of short clubs in hand coming into the green. So we have to see who has been putting the ball close to the hole from this 100-150-yard range recently.

1. Russell Henley (19.8 ft)
2. Justin Thomas (20.1 ft)
3. Scottie Scheffler (20.3 ft)
4. Nick Taylor (20.3 ft)
5. Collin Morikawa (20.4 ft)

Travelers Championship model rankings for TPC River Highlands

There’s a strong emphasis on scoring and ball-striking when it comes to modeling the Travelers Championship, and that’s highly reflected in what we’re weighing this week. For TPC River Highlands, we’re looking at strokes-gained approach over the last 24 rounds (20%), birdie-or-better percentage for the last 36 rounds (20%), proximity from 100-150 yards in the last 24 rounds (12.5%), strokes-gained total in easy scoring conditions for the last 36 rounds (12.5%), strokes-gained off the tee in the last 24 rounds (10%), strokes gaine total on comparable courses and at TPC River Highlands in the last five years (10%), bogey avoidance in the last 36 rounds (10%), and strokes-gained putting on bent/Poa greens in the last 36 rounds (5%). Here’s how our model shakes out after baking all of that into the pie.

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Sepp Straka
3. Patrick Cantlay
4. Rory McIlroy
5. Daniel Berger
6. Collin Morikawa
7. Justin Thomas
8. Ryan Fox
9. Bud Cauley
10. Viktor Hovland

2025 Travelers Championship picks

Patrick Cantlay (+2200, FanDuel)

There are two things that are true with Patrick Cantlay: First, you always have to be ready for the places he traditionally plays well, and secondly, that’s even more so the case when he’s playing well of late. I’m not worried about the missed cut at the U.S. Open because, well, it’s Cantlay at a major. We know what that means. His recent results around that, however, have been T13 at the Heritage, T4 at Truist and T12 at the Memorial. Despite not winning, he’s also thrived at Travelers with a T5, T4, a pair of T13s and a T11 in the last five years at this venue.

What stands out with Cantlay, beyond his traditionally and recently strong approach play, is how his game has translated to both easy courses and courses that are quite a lot like TPC River Highlands in terms of length and scoring conditions. According to the model, he ranks fourth in terms of strokes-gained total on comparable courses and second in strokes-gained total in easy scoring conditions. When presented with this type of opportunity, he more often than not takes advantage of it.

Full disclosure, I hate investing in Cantlay from a pure vibes perspective. But I can’t overlook what the numbers and history are telling me here. 

Viktor Hovland (+3300, BetMGM)

I’m not completely worried about the rigors of the U.S. Open having an adverse effect on Viktor Hovland after being in contention throughout the week at Oakmont. In fact, three of the last five winners at the Travelers were top 15 at the major championship the week prior. So it really could simply be an indication that players are in good form and Hovland certainly could fit that bill.

Hovland has just one top-15 finish at the Travelers, which came in 2020, but did finish T20 at TPC River Highlands despite losing strokes on approach last year. After gaining in every event this season since the Sentry and gaining 0.66 strokes per round or more in three of his last four tournaments, I don’t think that will happen again. He’s finding his DNA once again as an elite ball striker and now won’t have the diabolical Oakmont greens hurting him again once he sticks it close. 

The signs were there for Hovland going into the U.S. Open and I think it continues this week to buoy a strong finish to the 2025 season.

Bud Cauley (+10000, BetMGM)

The resurgence of Bud Cauley this season has been a sight to behold and there’s good reason to think that he could be primed for another terrific week at TPC River Highlands. While he hasn’t played here since 2020, the numbers and, specifically, how he’s handled himself on similar courses this season indicate that he’s a phenomenal fit to thrive at Travelers. 

For starters, Cauley finished solo third at Colonial just a few weeks ago, gaining 1.19 strokes tee-to-green. He also thrived with a T6 at the Players and another Pete Dye design, TPC Sawgrass. Now throw in the fact that he’s gained 0.83 strokes ball striking over his last 24 rounds, ranks 12th in birdie-or-better rate over the last 36 rounds and has been top 20 in the field in proximity from 100-150 yards, Cauley looks like a relative longshot primed to make some noise this week. 

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