2023 Charles Schwab Challenge: Betting Odds, Picks and a Prop for Colonial Country Club
There’s nothing quite like competing outside. Two weeks ago in Dallas, PGA Tour players competed in 80-degree temperatures. Last week, they faced a frost delay in upstate New York at the PGA Championship and now return to Dallas for more warm weather and the Charles Schwab Challenge. Hosted by Colonial Country Club since 1946, this is the 77th edition in Fort Worth, Texas.
The forecast is kinder than Rochester as we expect temperatures in the mid 80s and warm Texas winds only to be blowing from 10-12 mph Thursday through Sunday. There’s a 40% chance of rain starting the round on Thursday, but that will taper off and should stay dry for the rest of the tournament. The Dallas region has been dry for some time. Last year, the course was very arid and played extremely firm and fast. In 2023, we expect the same conditions.
For the second week in a row, we get a par-70 scorecard. The similarities to Oak Hill stop there. Colonial is the fourth shortest course on Tour and the ninth toughest. Success around one of Ben Hogan’s favorite places requires patience and a specific game plan. Colonial stretches only 7,209 yards. To slow down these world class players, Perry Maxwell presents several choices between cutting the corner or playing for position. Some have succeeded with an aggressive style, but over the last 80 years more have done it through holding back off the tee and attacking from the fairway.
More than 45% of the approach shots at Colonial come from between 125-175 yards. For these guys that’s a gap wedge to an 8-iron. Make sure your weekend wagers are placed on those who can create birdie opportunities with their scoring irons. Eleven holes have a birdie rate over 15%, conversely nine have a bogey rate over that same percentage. Colonial presents a nice blend and that’s why six of the last 10 winners have started the tournament with odds under +3500 (35-1).
How have the last 10 found their way to the winner’s circle? Let’s look at their average strokes-gained per category and decide what matters most.
SG: Off the tee: 2.5
SG: Approach: 5.9
SG: Around the green:0.8
SG: Putting:5.2
Driving and short game combined don’t add up to either average gain for putting or approach play. Nestled in-between a major championship and the next designated event, the Charles Schwab Challenge has an incredible assortment of approach players to pick from. Twenty-four of the top 50 in the OWGR are in the field competing for $8.7 million. The top 65 and ties will be fighting for a first-place check of $1.566 million. Which wedge warriors will get the job done?
Jordan Spieth is the king of modern Colonial. In 10 starts, he has eight top 10s, three seconds, and one win. Sitting near the top of the board, he’s one of six guys under +2000. Scottie Scheffler is the favorite at +400. Having this many top-tier betting options for a non-designated event is fun. With so many options in the teens and below, I’m looking further down the board for some value.
The prototype Colonial champion possesses a par-4 skill set. Balancing power for the 483-yard 3rd hole against nine par 4s which measure under 450. He must be excellent with a wedge to create as many 10- to 15-foot birdie putts as possible. Then following up with the flatstick, our winner will be opportunistic on the greens. He doesn’t have to be a great putter, but trending positively is important.
Oak Hill was a great ball-striking test, don’t be surprised if those who contended last week aren’t on the leaderboard again and listed in my win, place, and show.
Win: Tommy Fleetwood
Colonial will be crispy and Tommy Fleetwood loves firm and fast conditions. Remember his runner-up finish to Brooks at Shinnecock in the U.S. Open? The talented Englishman is a pure ball striker. In his last five starts, he’s gaining an average of just under eight strokes against the field total (7.9). Positive in every category, he finished 18th at the PGA Championship and is ranked sixth in the field for par-4 scoring. Take Tommy Fleetwood (+3300 SI Sportsbook) to win the Charles Schwab Challenge.
Last week's pick: Xander Schauffele is still waiting for his first major after finishing T18 at Oak Hill.
Place: Viktor Hovland
After walking alongside Viktor Hovland this past weekend in Rochester, I am convinced he is currently the best iron player in the world. Hovland gained 10.6 strokes with his irons at Oak Hill! His ability to attack from the fairway will make him more than a contender this week. I’m not sure if the putter leads him to victory, but his talent will surely leave him in the top 10 come Sunday. Take Viktor Hovland to finish top 10 (+150 SI Sportsbook).
Last week's pick: Winner! Steady Patrick Cantlay delivered on a top-10 play, finishing T9 after a Sunday 66 at the PGA Championship.
Showdown: Viktor Hovland over Sungjae Im
Sungjae Im can compete anywhere but when matched up against Viktor Hovland, I’ll take Hovland’s iron game. If Sungjae has a hole in his approach game it comes in the middle around 150 yards. Over 72 holes, Hovland’s iron game play separates the two and gives us another head-to-head win (-120 Draftkings).
Last week's pick: Winner! Keegan Bradley prevailed in our showdown, finishing T29 while Tom Kim missed the cut after his creek escapades.
Select Odds to Win at SI Sportsbook
Scottie Scheffler +400
Jordan Spieth +1200
Tony Finau +1400
Viktor Hovland +1400
Collin Morikawa +1600
Sungjae Im +1800
Max Homa +2200
Sam Burns +2200
Justin Rose +2500
Rickie Fowler +2800
Tommy Fleetwood +3300
Cam Davis +3500
Chris Kirk +3500
Russell Henley +4000
Si Woo Kim +4000
Denny McCarthy +5000