2023 Masters Bettors’ Roundtable: Favorites, Sleepers and Best Bets for Augusta National
A field of 88 players is set to tee up at Augusta National for the 87th edition of the Masters. Several top players seem to be peaking at the perfect time. A few look a bit lost. And 18 LIV Golf members are set to add extra intrigue to what is always one of the most fascinating weeks of the year.
To handicap this Masters for golf gamblers and fantasy players, we’re watching the SI Sportsbook and have once again convened a roundtable of veteran golf writers along with golf gambling and fantasy experts from Rotowire,com to offer their unique perspective while handicapping this year’s field. On board for this edition: SI Golf’s Alex Miceli, Bob Harig, John Schwarb and Jeff Ritter, SI contributors Gary Van Sickle and Rotowire’s Len Hochberg and Greg Vara. On to the questions:
Thanks to its smaller field size and venue that never moves, the Masters in many ways may be the easiest to predict among the four men’s majors. What player attributes do you look for when identifying a contender?
John Schwarb, SI Golf: Work backward from the green to the tee to build your champion. A bomber isn't mandatory (though it doesn't hurt) but someone rolling it well is a must.
Alex Miceli, SI Golf: With a bigger ballpark, driving the ball is not as important, but since Augusta National is all about angles, not only finding the fairways, but finding the correct side is a must.
Len Hochberg, Rotowire: One of the beauties of Augusta National is that it requires golfers to use every club in their bag. They can be most exposed on and around the greens, so short game and putting are paramount. And with putting, three-putt avoidance will be critical. But with any major and especially the Masters, the intangible is how they can handle the pressure. We've seen the Masters won and lost when someone's nerves crumble.
Bob Harig, SI Golf: Hitting greens in regulation. While that stat is not always predictive at regular events, it typically is an excellent indication of the top performers at the Masters. Both Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy—who finished 1-2 last year—were in the top 6 in greens, neither hitting less than 11 in any round. Kevin Na, who led the field with 51 of 72, tied for 14th.
Gary Van Sickle, SI Contributor: You've gotta be an artist with a putter to handle those greens. (Sorry, Rory, but don't give up. Vijay Singh and Sergio Garcia won Masters and you putt better than them.) Short-game genius is another key—Jordan Spieth, Cam Smith, Patrick Reed and Scottie Scheffler, for starters. After that, I look for players near top of the Proximity to Hole stats with approach shots. Then, I check my Magic 8-Ball.
Greg Vara, Rotowire: Two things I look for at Augusta are the short game and approach to the green. If you are locked-in with your irons, your short game isn’t a necessity, but it’s impossible to get around this course without missing some greens and when that happens, you’d better be confident in your short game. Speaking of those approach shots, it's not just the accuracy, but the knowledge of where you want to end up. Here's a phrase you'll hear more than a few times this week, "he's on the wrong side of the green.” In almost all cases, the wrong side results in an extra stroke.
Jeff Ritter, SI Golf: Look for players with recent good form and a track record of success on big stages. You’ve gotta hit the greens and no one has ever won a Masters without sinking some timely putts.
This week the Masters will unveil a newly lengthened par-5 13th hole. Let’s say you have the wheel of the excavator: what hole at Augusta National would you alter and how would you do it?
Harig: The par-4 7th. It now measures 450 yards, some 90 yards more than when Tiger Woods won his first Masters in 1997. Believe it or not, it’s too long. The tiny green is not meant to accept long iron shots. The hole still offers plenty of obstacles, with multiple bunkers and overhanging trees. Move the tee up 30 yards.
Van Sickle: Clifford Roberts would climb out of his grave if you attempted this. Not much to change, really. For history's sake, I'd move the green on 10 up to where those weird (originally located) fairway bunkers are, which is where the green was in 1934. Maybe add some mounds, I don't know. I really wouldn't change anything.
Ritter: I’ll skip the excavator, but will say the par-4 17th feels a little empty ever since ANGC had to take down the Eisenhower tree, which swatted down leftward shots and added some extra drama to the homestretch. I’d be OK with replanting something there—maybe keep the presidential-botanical theme and add a Franklin Pierce Palm, or a Bush Bush.
Miceli: The fifth hole would be changed, to take the bunker back to the right side of the fairway and allow players to go up the left side as the hole was designed. I’d also lengthen it 30 yards or so, to make a long iron into the green.
Vara: I think it would be fun to have a drivable par-4 somewhere on the course, but I’m not sure there is a hole that would be a candidate to shorten to a point where you could drive it off the tee. No. 3 is already short enough to reach off the tee, but the contours of the green make it nearly impossible to drive and the risk/reward is tilted heavily towards risk. Plus I love the current setup of that hole, so I wouldn’t dream of touching it. My complaint over the years was that the par-5s on the “second” nine weren’t challenging enough to the modern golfer, but they’ve addressed both in recent years.
Schwarb: I don't need the excavator, I would just remove the "second cut" everywhere so errant or poorly executed drives can more easily run into trouble.
Hochberg: Last year, they lengthened 15 and got the desired result. So I'm excited to see how 13 plays. I think that was the right call. But other than the added distance, I don't know whether I'd change anything. C'mon, it's Augusta National—that's like asking me to change a Picasso.
There are 18 LIV Golfers in the field this week. When assessing their chances, do you emphasize how they’ve performed in their three LIV events this year, or their overall Masters track records?
Vara: Track record and it’s not even a contest. I can’t take the LIV Tour seriously. The top players have lost the motivation to win. They showed by making the leap to LIV that money is their highest motivator, not competition, so with the enormous signing bonuses in the bank, where’s the motivation to win? This week will be a bit different of course because they’ll have something to prove, that they haven’t lost their edge or their game, but I fear most LIV players will be irrelevant this week.
Harig: There is not much to go on this year for LIV golfers. The first two winners, Charles Howell III and Danny Lee, are not in the Masters field. And the courses they played at Mayakoba and Tucson in no way approximate Augusta National. The lack of golf is a concern, so you have to look at Augusta records. It’s only three years since Dustin Johnson won the green jacket. Cam Smith has four top-10s, including a tie for third last year and a tie for second in 2021. That is likely what matters more.
Schwarb: Track records for sure. Past champions don't forget how to play Augusta. And just because someone's great short game didn't show up in Tucson doesn't mean it won't this week (to tease my pick).
Hochberg: This was the most challenging aspect in ranking the entire field, as I do for every major at RotoWire. I tried to take everything into consideration—how they've played in LIV, outside of LIV, the quality of their competition, the sparsity of their tournament rounds in the past year, their past Masters results, the pressure they will face when they walk on the grounds, and what I expect will be their fierce desire to make LIV look good.
Van Sickle: I'm pretty sure the LIV-vites haven't played any Augusta National-like courses lately so their recent results are barely of interest. Longer term, you can look at how they've played. Mickelson doesn't rank among the top 30 on that 48-man circuit. He might fare better at ANGC but he's not looked good, really, since his miracle PGA win. Big question is whether the LIV-vites have played competitive golf to be sharp. I'd emphasize their records at Augusta and go from there. Cam Smith, for instance, has already nearly won a Masters twice.
Miceli: Overall Masters record is more important, as it’s the only major that is played at the same venue every year. It benefits those past winners.
Ritter: LIV guys will be motivated but their list of serious contenders looks short. Cam Smith belongs in the top 10. Dustin Johnson and Brooks Koepka, now that he appears to have regained some of his mojo, are legit. Joaquin Niemann and Mito Pereira were ascending, at least before they bolted for LIV. But anyone else? The Gooch? Reed? Bubba again? Don’t think I see it.
Tiger Woods has arrived in Augusta and presumably will play this week. What are your expectations for him?
Miceli: Not much. He’s still trying to figure out how to walk 18 holes x 4.
Harig: Woods showed a lot of grit, determination and promise at the Genesis Invitational, making the 36-hole cut on the number and then shooting an impressive third-round 67. But he skipped the Players Championship and there’s been little to no information on his status. Was there a setback? Has he been practicing and playing recently? It would be unwise to ever count Woods out, but he faces the same hurdles: the physical limitations combined with his lack of tournament preparation are a considerable amount to overcome. Making the cut—which he’s never failed to do as a pro at the Masters—and then a solid weekend would be the most to expect.
Van Sickle: I expect him to post one good round in the 60s, another around par and two rounds over par as the weekend wears him down. That's not what Tiger is expecting to do. But he doesn't know how he'll hold up and neither do we. I like to set expectations low and then be pleasantly surprised. A Tiger charge of any kind on any day would be a thrill.
Ritter: He’ll make the cut because he always finds a way to make the cut here. But like most of the panel, I can’t see him factoring on the weekend.
Vara: He makes the cut, but after that it’s up to his legs and how they hold up. My guess is that he plays well Thursday/Friday and into Saturday, but maybe starts to break down late Saturday. If he can recover for the final round, who knows? I wouldn’t be surprised with a top-10, but if he were in contention on Sunday afternoon, that would be a bit of a surprise.
Schwarb: Rally to the weekend but finish outside the top 30.
Hochberg: Last year, we saw two very good rounds and then a 78-78 weekend. In Woods' most recent action, we saw a top-25 after three rounds at Riviera and then a Sunday fade. Those aren't golf problems, those are walking-four-rounds problems. That said, Woods said in L.A. that his right leg and ankle were better than at any other time post-accident. Combined with his ability to play Augusta blindfolded, I feel a made cut is a given, and a top-25 a possibility.
Are there any sleepers, odds 60-1 or longer in the SI Sportsbook, that you’re eyeing this week?
Van Sickle: I'd like to point out that Justin Rose, at 55-1, lost a Masters playoff, has posted a lot of low rounds at Augusta and won at Pebble Beach this year. Beyond him, I can't sleep on Kurt Kitayama, the Arnold Palmer Invitational champ. He was a tough out in the Match Play and has shown he can handle being on a big stage, although the Masters is the biggest stage of all.
Hochberg: Eyeing to win? Probably not. But Si Woo Kim at 90-1 is interesting. He's made five straight Masters cuts, three of them top-25s, with a best of T12 two years ago. He seems a different golfer this year. In the offseason, he got married, hired a new caddie, then went out and won the Sony. He's had four more top-25s since then and just missed a fifth at the Players.
Vara: Kurt Kitayama. He doesn’t fit the profile because he’s a first timer here, but the same was true at Bay Hill where he beat the best in the world and at Austin Country Club where he nearly cracked the final four. The Match Play strengthened my opinion of Kitayama. He could have coasted after his win at the AP Invitational, but instead he’s building on it. Kitayama is new to the PGA Tour, but he already has seven major starts under his belt, which can only help him this week.
Schwarb: Justin Rose is rejuvenated and one of the top money-winners at Augusta. He's 66-1 to win but that also means a good price for a top-20 finish.
Ritter: Kitayama at 110-1 is juicy. Of the LIV players, I sort of like the odds on Niemann at 60-1.
Harig: Tommy Fleetwood. The Englishman has been making more noise of late, contending recently at the Valspar Championship and finding some form over the last several months. A supreme ball striker, that’s never a bad thing at Augusta National.
Are there any favorites, odds 25-1 or shorter, who could disappoint?
Hochberg: Oh, that's easy: Whoever I bet! I fully expect the winner to come from this small group, and oddsmakers have done a good job of weeding out the pretenders. I was hoping Viktor Hovland would be 25-1 so I could pick him to disappoint. No such luck. I'll reluctantly go with Max Homa. He could be one of the top-five golfers in the world right now, but he's never done anything in a major. Zero top-10s. It would be an extraordinary leap to suddenly win one.
Schwarb: Justin Thomas (20-1) has been good-not-great this season and is 146th in strokes-gained putting. Just not enough for a win bet for me.
Ritter: Thomas is having a weird year, and Augusta isn’t the place you typically go to fix what ails you. He’s a fade for me.
Harig: Max Homa. As great as Homa has been since late last year, his record in major championships is poor. Perhaps this is the year that changes.
Vara: Rory McIlroy (8-1). This is a tough question because “disappoint” is subjective. To me that means anyone who could play below expectations, not necessarily that said player will play poorly. With that being the case, McIlroy is primed to disappoint this week only because the expectations of him are sky high. McIlroy is the co-favorite with Scottie Scheffler, so anything less than a win will be a disappointment, right? I think McIlroy plays well this week, but I don’t think he wins. I’ll be rooting for him, but I’d have preferred he didn’t have so much hype coming into the week.
Van Sickle: I don’t know what’s up with Justin Thomas, the reigning PGA champ. He’s been 20th or worse in six of his nine starts this season. That doesn’t give me confidence. Probably not him, either.
There can only be one: who wears green on Sunday and why?
Van Sickle: I hate to pick chalk but I've liked Scottie Scheffler since early last year. He's got the whole game—the putting, the chipping, the power, the iron play. He already has a pattern of playing well at certain courses—Phoenix, Bay Hill, Austin CC, Augusta National. I like his chances of repeating. That said, Augusta National is a minefield of holes where one bad swing leads to an 8. I think his best golf is as good as, if not better than, Rory McIlroy's best or Jon Rahm's best, and Scheffler has the clutch gene to close out wins.
Harig: Rory McIlroy. A fifth major is inevitable. He had a chance at all four last year, has played at a top level for most of the past year, and is coming off a confidence-boosting performance at the WGC-Dell Match Play. Two pre-tournament visits to Augusta National were used to hone in on strategy. McIlroy breaks the eight-plus-year major drought and completes the career Grand Slam.
Ritter: Scottie Scheffler looks ready to become the first repeat champion at the Masters since Tiger Woods is own self in 2001-02, and he deserves to the be favorite. But my eyes drift a little lower down the board to Max Homa. He doesn’t have a major-championship top-10, but he’s won this year, threatened in other events, and is clearly a player on the rise. His all-around game should fit and I could see it all clicking at once for him this week.
Hochberg: Rory McIlroy. Since winning the third leg of the grand slam in 2014, he's come close at the Masters so many times, top-10 almost every year. He's playing well now—second at Bay Hill, third at the Match Play. Made changes to his driver and putter recently and they are paying off. Sure, there's tremendous scar tissue here that can't be discounted. But the Will-Rory-Ever-Win-The-Masters storyline ends this year.
Schwarb: Cam Smith might sound like a rascal pick (how can you choose a LIV'er?) but his short game is spectacular and his Masters record is as good as any non-winner in this field. A very attractive play at 20-1, too.
Miceli: Jordan Spieth—he’s playing well and past champion, a winning combination. Of all those in the field, for whatever reason ANGC seems to fit Jordan Spieth to a tee.
Vara: Scottie Scheffler. Not a fan of the value on a win bet, but I do think he wins this week. He’s the defending champ and he’s the best player in the world right now. I actually like the fact that he didn’t win in Austin and lost to McIlroy in the third-place match. I doubt he needed extra motivation to perform well at the Masters, but that result should provide it. Plus I don’t think Scheffler was pleased with how he closed out the 2022 season and he’s determined to take advantage of his current form by winning anything and everything in sight. This is not a guy who is content with one major.