2023 Travelers Championship: Betting Odds, Picks and a Prop for TPC River Highlands

Like last week's the U.S. Open, the Travelers Championship is a $20 million event contested on par-70 course. But that's where the similarities end.

Author:
Keith Stewart, PGA
Publish date:
Jun 20, 2023

CROMWELL, Conn. — Life is full of funny ironies. The fact we are playing the Travelers Championship across the country from last week’s 123rd US Open is quite humorous. The players may not find it funny migrating across three time zones to compete in another designated event, but nonetheless here we are with eight of the top 10 in the OWGR (7 of 10 in the SI World Golf Rankings) competing for another $3.6 million first-place prize.

For the second week in a row, 156 players will compete for a $20 million dollar purse. It isn’t difficult for my PGA eyes to discern who is engaged on east coast time versus those who are still in a California state of mind while walking the practice facility. I get a sense for many this is going to be an “off” week as each of them sits in a different situation with just seven tournaments left in the FedEx Cup regular season.

Even more ironic may be the difference between the two venues in back-to-back weeks. Los Angeles Country Club sits in the middle of a major metropolitan city. Decorated in history and sitting under the spotlight, its North Course is a unique par-70 layout measuring over 7,400 yards. TPC River Highlands resides in suburban Hartford, Conn. Surrounded by foothills and neighborhoods, the scorecard is also a par-70.

Measuring nearly 600 yards less, this par-70 scorecard has two par 5s, four par 3s, and 12 par 4s. LACC’s North Course was a test of length and mental strength. TPC River Highlands has been a birdie chase since the tournament was first played on Pete Dye’s design in 1984. Players will be separated by short-iron play and putting. Ten of the 12 par 4s are under 450 yards in length. The opposite of LACC’s closing stretch tests an opposite approach.

Here are a couple of quick facts to help us better understand the common characteristics of the last ten Travelers champions.

The average pre-tournament odds of those winners are +5700. Five of the winners came in under +3300, and the other five entered the week priced over +4500.
Strokes-gained putting was the largest average gain by the winners (+5.0).
The second largest average gain came on approach (+4.0).

Most par-70 courses challenge players to score. The average winning total over the last 10 years is 15 under par. The average cutline in the same timeframe for the top 65 and ties is just 1 under par. The winner this week will probably need 20 birdies. Par-70 layouts generally have two less par 5s, so to contend and win in Connecticut, players will need to find other means of going low. Attacking the par 4s is the place. Seven of the top-10 easiest scoring holes on the course are 4s. I believe par-4 scoring is a true success indicator on Tour. On par-70 weeks, the influence is even more impactful.

In contrast to last week, players will be using short irons on most of their approach shots. Approximately 50% of the attacking irons will fall in the 125-to-175-yard range. For most of the field that is a wedge to an 8-iron. The players are aware on the range. I see a different approach over last in Los Angeles. Far less long-iron practice is needed. The field is spending more of their time sharpening the scoring clubs.

Proximity to the hole creates realistic birdie opportunities. The field is focused on hitting their approaches inside 15 feet and then converting with the putter. Those two skills are what will separate this field. My Win, Place, and Showdown reflect those who can score this way. Birdie-or-better percentage is only a measure of sub-par holes. You must look deeper when it comes to the changes we see on the scorecard. If a player needs par 5s to bolster their birdie total, they are not a great Travelers fit.

Much was made of the course conditions last week in the U.S. Open. True to the theme of this preview, they will be completely different in Cromwell. The forecast calls for wet weather this week. Rain is expected throughout the tournament. There is a 50% chance (or more) over the final three rounds. Softer turf conditions will only amplify the power of proximity. Contenders will need great approach play and a high conversion rate. Temperatures will also be warm and the humidity high.

All of this adds up to a scoring situation. The predictions below reflect all my on-site research and observations. The players I have chosen are engaged and have put last week behind them. Watch their approach set them apart at the Travelers Championship.

Win: Tommy Fleetwood

In his last five starts, Tommy Fleetwood has finished in the top 5 three times. Fleetwood fired a final-round 63 at the U.S. Open, two shots better than anyone else Sunday. His ball striking has just been impeccable, gaining equally off the tee and on approach. His wedge game is solid and he doesn’t get enough credit for his short-game acumen. Fleetwood has won six times on the DP World Tour and those lessons, along with the RBC Canadian Open, are enough to make the Travelers his first PGA Tour win. Take Tommy Fleetwood (+3000 SI Sportsbook) to win the Travelers Championship.

Place: Xander Schauffele

This week's defending champion opened the U.S. Open with 62! Xander Schauffele is playing some exceptionally well-rounded golf. Over the past five years, he holds the third-best par-70 scoring average on the PGA Tour. Schauffele can score from anywhere and that’s why he will contend again in defense of his Travelers title. Take Xander Schauffele to finish top 10 (+140 SI Sportsbook).

Showdown: Russell Henley over Collin Morikawa

The Travelers is a putting contest for the world’s best golfers. Both Collin Morikawa and Russell Henley are amongst the best wedge players on Tour, but Henley has a considerable edge with the flatstick. He has gained positive strokes on the greens in four of his last five starts. Collin on the other hand has lost strokes in three of his last five. We only need to win by one and Russell’s putter creates enough separation to take down Collin. Take Henley over Morikawa head to head.

Last week's pick: Cameron Smith finished a very fine fourth but not a win.

Last week's pick: We had Brooks Koepka to finish in the top 10 and he finished two shots out of that in T17. Sigh.

Last week's pick: Tom Kim fared better than we expected with a T8 and Denny McCarthy (T20) failed to beat him.