PGA Championship Bettors' Roundtable: Writers and Gambling Experts Make Their Picks for Oak Hill
PGA Championship week as arrived in Rochester, N.Y., where venerable Oak Hill is set to host. To get ready for the week, we convened a panel of golf writers and editors along with fantasy and gambling experts from Rotowire.com to handicap the field, pick a few sleepers and make their selections to win the Wanamaker. Joining this edition: SI Golf’s Bob Harig, Alex Miceli, John Schwarb and Gary Van Sickle, plus Rotowire’s Len Hochberg and Greg Vara. On to the panel.
Oak Hill has a rich history of hosting big-time events, from U.S. Opens and PGA Championships, to Senior majors and a Ryder Cup. What is it about Oak Hill that makes it so great, and what kind of player does it favor?
John Schwarb, SI Golf: It's a major course straight out of central casting, requiring straight drives and precise approaches to avoid juicy rough. Saying such a course favors a patient tactician isn't an earth-shattering observation, but that's who will win this week.
Alex Miceli, SI Golf: Long and tight with greens that are more difficult than most. Winners are usually good ball strikers, Curtis Strange and Jay Haas are two examples. Because of the tree removal in the recent changes, it possible that fairways hit will not be as crucial, but it’s a wait-and-see until Thursday.
Len Hochberg, Rotowire.com: It's on the very short list of what we all think of when we think of major championship golf courses. It's long, it's hard, it's penal, it requires golfers to use every club in their bag. It doesn't just identify the best iron player or best putter. The golfer who wins most likely will have to have every facet of his game going well. But it all starts with the drive. There's always more than one way to win a golf tournament, but the longest drivers with the longest carry will start with a huge edge.
Bob Harig, SI Golf: Oak Hill’s reputation for difficulty stems from its past glory as a tree-lined course with narrow fairways and thick rough. It has led to some excruciating majors, although Jason Dufner won at 10 under 10 years ago. Now, however, a good number of those trees are gone. The course has been renovated. The greens restored more to the way Donald Ross designed them. That makes it much harder to predict. The way it played previously, a long bomber was not necessarily rewarded. We’ve seen the likes of Dufner, Shaun Micheel and Curtis Strange win at Oak Hill. They were not particularly long, but hit it straight. It opens it up to more possibilities.
Greg Vara, Rotowire.com: It might be tough to predict how this course will play post-renovation. Oak Hill has always been a challenge in that it amplifies even the smallest mistakes on your way to the green, but it sounds like the renovations gave the golfers more room to take some chances this time around and it might play a bit easier than in previous years. Bunkers are going to be an issue, so solid play from the sand should be a necessity …unless you control your ball well both off the tee and into the green, which means that I’ll be focusing on ball striking above all else this week.
Gary Van Sickle, SI Golf: At Oak Hill, a golfer is challenged on every single shot. Sounds like fun if you're a member, right? I played in a handful of J.R. Williams amateur events there (before the renovation) and it was a beast, every bit as hard as Oakmont. If you're not in the fairway, you're dead. If you're not on the green, you're in critical condition. If you're on the green and not below the hole, you're back to being dead again. Notice how straight drivers/great iron players typically do well there—Curtis Strange, Jason Dufner, Shaun Micheel, Chad Campbell. The guys who aren't big hitters are on Tour because they're great iron players. That's the profile of the next winner.
LIV golfers claimed three top-6 finishes at the Masters. Did that change how you feel about their chances at majors going forward, and do you like any of them this week?
Len Hochberg: It certainly changed my viewpoint of Brooks Koepka. We didn't know he was fully healthy and, after watching Netflix's Full Swing, we didn't quite know where his head was at. He appears to be the old Brooks Koepka. While I was also surprised about Phil Mickelson, it was Augusta, where he can play blindfolded. There were 18 LIV guys among 90ish at the Masters. Now there are 17 among 156. If they play enough majors, they'll probably eventually win one. But not this week.
Alex Miceli: Never thought they couldn’t compete, so, no, my feelings about their chances have not changed. Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka and Talor Gooch are potential success stories at Oak Hill.
Bob Harig: While that might have been a surprise at Augusta National, it shouldn’t surprise us that some LIV guys might contend. Dustin Johnson, Cam Smith, Brooks Koepka and Patrick Reed are still top-flight players. There are others such as Joaquin Niemann, Carlos Ortiz, Sebastian Munoz and even Bryson DeChambeau who can make noise. For this week, I think Koepka—a two-time PGA champion—is the best bet to make it interesting.
John Schwarb: The question of whether LIV guys would be ready for a major was answered last month, ditto the catcalls about how they can only play 54 holes. I'm not sleeping on Dustin Johnson.
Gary Van Sickle: The LIVers have just as good a chance to win a major as they ever did, no difference. Brooks Koepka has that major look again; Dustin Johnson won at Oakmont, which is not unlike Oak Hill; Cam Smith can win anywhere with his short game; Patrick Reed is good with his irons and around the greens; and there's always the Phil Phactor (Mickelson). Lee Westwood or Louis Oosthuizen in their primes would be good picks.
Greg Vara: I guess we shouldn’t be shocked to see LIV players performing well at majors, after all, some of these guys were top-30 players before they left, but I don’t expect what happened at the Masters to happen at the other majors. Koepka has always played well at the majors and both Mickelson and Reed were former champs at Augusta, which gave them an edge over many PGA Tour players. I don’t see that edge for the LIV players this week at Oak Hill, so I again am expecting just one LIV player to be a factor this week. I’m looking at you Cam Smith.
There’s only one player in this field with a shot at the calendar Grand Slam: Jon Rahm. Do you view his chances this week any differently given that he won the Masters last month?
Greg Vara: The question here is will Rahm regress to the mean or will he get better with the added confidence of another major? I have a hard time looking at his Masters performance as anything other than a confidence boost, so I think his chances of winning this week are better than they were prior to the Masters. We all knew that Rahm was capable of winning another a major, but the fashion in which he did it showcased yet another level to his game, one that opens the door to several more majors in the near future.
John Schwarb: You can't bet everyone (well, you can but it's hard to make money) and ruling out the favorite who's already bagged a major is easy. Could it backfire? Sure. But bettors' remorse could also be cured with a live play over the weekend; if he's chasing he may have a better price than the current +700.
Alex Miceli: I don’t see his chances differently, but he will always be in the discussion to win the next major. Coming into the Masters he was one of the top contenders. Nothing has changed in May at the PGA.
Bob Harig: If anything, his success at the Masters should help his chances. The pressure to win a second major is off. He’s been playing great all year. He’s had two weeks off since finishing second at the Mexico Open. There’s no reason to believe he can’t do it again.
Gary Van Sickle: Rahm's game travels well. Come on, 320 down the middle like a bullet sets up any course. But Oak Hill's two par-5s aren't very gettable, so it's not his length that's going to win it, it'll be his iron play. He can win anywhere but would he be on my five-man fantasy team? Probably not. (But don't forget, I'm stupid.)
Len Hochberg: Mathematically, is it harder to win a second straight major? Sure. But I don't view his chances any differently, really. Rahm can great on any golf course, any time, anywhere.
It’s springtime in New York, so anything is possible, but the current forecast calls for highs in the low 60s with intermittent rain during the four days. Does that forecast unlock any wagering opportunities?
Len Hochberg: It doesn't appear right now that there will be a significant edge to early/late or late/early tee times. Every guy will have a bit of a chilly morning on either Thursday or Friday. The rain doesn't seem too severe right now, but if it gets there, then the longer hitters should have even more of an advantage. It won't be as warm as it was at Southern Hills, so that also would favor the longer hitters.
Alex Miceli: While the weather will not be optimal, historically wet conditions have favored Rory McIlroy. He seems to be a good mudder, so even though he’s not necessarily on his game, he may be the one to take advantage of the conditions.
Greg Vara: So just like Augusta? Seriously, anytime that weather takes a player out of his routine, there is a chance that the results get altered dramatically, but unless we are talking about a lot of wind or weather delays, I don't expect the predicted weather to have much of an effect on the outcome this week. We can’t measure the extent that weather affects each golfer, but in general, lower temps and some rain wouldn’t change the way I handicap this week.
Bob Harig: The weather might not be that much more pleasant than it was at times at the Masters. That suggests guys who stay patient in cold weather and don’t mind the distractions of wind, rain or delays. Certainly fair weather golfers can be ruled out.
Gary Van Sickle: Did you just ask if a Canadian can win this thing? Corey Conners, straight hitter, fine iron player, fits the bill. It will feel like a nice summer week in the Greater Kitchener (Ont.) to him. Definitely a good sleeper choice.
Which long shot, odds 60-1 or longer in the SI Sportsbook, could surprise this week?
Alex Miceli: Adam Scott (60-1) should have more than one major and has been playing really well over the last month.
Bob Harig: I was surprised to see Patrick Reed with such long odds, especially coming off his Masters performance. But I like Keegan Bradley, the 2011 PGA champ, who continues to show form without putting it all together.
Len Hochberg: I don't believe these guys can win, but I'm very high on Keegan Bradley and Joaquin Niemann, who are both 66-1, and Harris English, who is 100-1. Bradley loves him some Northeast courses, and so does English, if I'm allowed to throw in TPC River Highlands. Niemann looked solid at the Masters, and I view him as the second-best LIV guy this week.
Van Sickle: I've already pumped Reed (66-1) and Conners (75-1) so how about the best Polish golfer in history, fresh off a DP World Tour win, Adrian Meronk, 150-1? Insert your favorite Polish phrase here that means "he's on a roll."
Greg Vara: Tommy Fleetwood at 65-1 looks like an interesting play this week. Fleetwood checks a lot of boxes this week when looking at his stats. He’s ninth in strokes-gained total, ninth in tee to green, 24th in approach and 49th in putting. He’s had some issues hitting a high percentage of greens, but he’s been able to make up for that with the solid short game and quality putting. Oh, and let’s not forget about those bunkers, he’s 31st in sand save %.
John Schwarb: Rickie Fowler has been stacking up top 20s all year on Tour and 80-1 is extremely tempting at a course that has crowned several first-time major champions.
There can only be one: who wins this PGA Championship and why?
Alex Miceli: Matt Fitzpatrick, good ball striker and almost won the PGA last year before winning the U.S. Open.
John Schwarb: Patrick Cantlay has the game and now has Joe LaCava on the bag, which just might be the final piece to landing a long overdue first major.
Greg Vara: Scottie Scheffler. This is an interesting time on the PGA Tour as Scheffler and Rahm have broken away from the pack (yes that includes Rory McIlroy) so to me, it’s going to come down to these two for the foreseeable future. There’s nothing to dislike about Rahm, I expect him to be a factor all the way until the end, but I think it’s Scheffler’s turn this week. If you’re into stats, then Scheffler’s definitely your guy. He’s number one on the PGA Tour in strokes-gained off the tee, strokes gained tee-to-green, and GIR%. The only potential flaw in his game is putting, but I don’t think that will have nearly the impact this week that it had at Augusta.
Bob Harig: Viktor Hovland. Norway’s best has mostly done his damage at sunny resort courses in compiling his PGA Tour record but he’s an elite player with high expectations. We forget he was the 54-hole leader at St. Andrews last year and led after the first round of the Masters. A good iron player in dicey weather seems a good possibility.
Len Hochberg: It would be so easy to say Rahm or Scheffler (probably because one of them will win). But I'm gonna leave them for my esteemed colleagues and go Xander Schauffele. He's not among the very longest drivers, but he's long enough—runner-up at uber-long Quail Hollow. He's elite or borderline elite in every strokes-gained stat but off-the-tee. Plus he's 12th in bogey avoidance, another key metric for me. Xander gets his first major.
Gary Van Sickle: The winner needs to play U.S. Open style golf, fairways and greens, and be a control player. Hmm, who's good at U.S. Open golf? Matt Fitzpatrick.