The Soto Sweepstakes and Other Top Stories to Follow Over MLB’s Final Months

You ready for a frantic finish to the MLB season? It’s going to be epic!

Take a good look—or wave good riddance. Baseball as we knew it is on its last breath. The game is in transition.

As the competition committee convenes to lock in rules changes for next season, the second half of this season is your last chance to see Cardinals reliever Giovanny Gallegos take 32 seconds to throw a pitch and teams to deploy shifts a record 36% of the time, causing batting average on balls in play to plummet to its lowest level in 30 years.

The pitch timer and the ban on shifts are coming, along with larger bases. Players serving on the 11-person competition committee are Jack Flaherty of the Cardinals, Tyler Glasnow of the Rays, Whit Merrifield of the Royals and Austin Slater of the Giants. There has been some debate about when to stop the clock and how many times a pitcher is allowed to reset the timer by stepping off (it’s a limit of two in the minors), but there is no stopping the clock from coming next year.

The ban on shifts will require at least two infielders on each side of second base with both feet positioned in the infield dirt. The use of shifts has doubled since 2018—and in that time batting average on ground balls has dropped from .246 to .238.

Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos/Getty Images

One seismic change already is in place for the second half: an expanded postseason format. Six teams will qualify in each league. The one-and-done wild-card game is gone. The two division winners with the best records get a first-round bye. The third division winner plays the No. 6 seed in a best-of-three series, all in its home park. The best of the three wild-card teams plays the second wild card under the same three-at-home format. Will it work?

“I just hope we don’t get teams with losing records in the playoffs,” White Sox closer Liam Hendriks said.

As for the two best teams sitting for three days before the postseason, Astros pitcher Justin Verlander said, “I don’t know what that’s going to be like. I’ve been on two teams, in 2006 and 2012, where we were hurt by too much time off.”

The expanded postseason field means more teams start the second half believing they are in the playoff hunt, including the Orioles, who lost 110 games last year, the Rangers, who lost 102, and the Marlins, who lost 95. The second half begins with 18 of the 30 teams no worse than 3 ½ games out of playoff position. Here are the stories to watch in this transitional second half:

The Soto Sweepstakes

The Nationals are shopping Juan Soto. He is too good of a player to get equal value, so this is a test of Washington’s desire to get as much as it can before he becomes a free agent after the 2024 season. There will be no extension attached to a trade—Soto said Monday he does not want to negotiate in season—but getting Soto before Aug. 2 means he can impact three pennant races, which is why his value will never be higher. The Padres, Mets, Yankees, Cardinals, Giants and Rangers figure to be in play for Soto.

Reds righthander Luis Castillo, the top pitcher likely to be dealt before the Aug. 2 trade deadline, has 3.2 WAR and a 2.77 ERA entering the season half of the season.

Albert Cesare/USA TODAY Network

A Busy Trade Deadline

That’s becoming redundant. Teams understand they must tweak their rosters in the week or two leading up to the deadline. Sitting still is not an option, even if it means incremental moves. The retooling of Atlanta’s outfield last year hammered home the importance of never standing pat. And the expanded postseason field means more potential buyers.

After Soto, Luis Castillo is the prize of the market. The Reds pitcher is the kind of swing-and-miss power arm teams covet in postseason play. He has the toughest four-seamer to hit of any starter in baseball (.138). And one look at his fastball use and velocity tells you he is trending in the right direction:

Castillo Fastball

	Usage	Velocity
May	24%	96.1 mph
June	28%	97.0 mph
July	47%	97.7 mph

Other key trade targets: Frankie Montas of the A’s, Andrew Benintendi and Merrifield of the Royals, Josh Bell and Nelson Cruz of the Nationals, Willson Contreras of the Cubs and Brandon Drury of the Reds.

Ohtani vs. Judge: Battle of the Unicorns

Even Aaron Judge admitted Monday that Shohei Ohtani is the frontrunner for AL MVP. Ohtani leads in WAR, 4.9 to 4.4. He has never been more amazing than in the Angels’ past 34 games. Since June 9, Ohtani has a 0.45 ERA and a .964 OPS. It is his award to lose, though don’t count out Judge, who is on pace for 58 homers while playing 85 games in center field. Nobody in history has done that. The most home runs for such a primary center fielder is 56, by Ken Griffey Jr. (twice, in 1997 and ’98) and Hack Wilson (1930).

A Frantic Finish

In the NL, the Braves and Mets are in a fight to earn a bye, while four teams fighting for two playoff spots—the Padres, Phillies, Cardinals and Giants—are separated by only two games in the loss column. There are no tiebreaker games, only formulas to break ties.

The picture is even more muddled in the AL. Seven teams fighting for the three wild-card spots are within five games in the loss column.

Yankees-Dodgers Collision Course

The Yankees are on pace for 113 wins, one off the franchise record from 1998. The Dodgers are on pace for 108 wins, two better than the franchise record set in 2019 and ’21. They rank 1–2 in some order in run differential, runs per game scored, runs per game allowed, pitchers’ strikeout to walk rate, and Defensive Runs Saved.

The new postseason format overwhelmingly rewards the No. 1 seed, and not just with home field advantage to the World Series. With a rested staff, you play a wild-card round winner that must survive a best-of-three and may have to open Game 1 of the division series with a No. 4 starter.

Julio Rodríguez is quickly becoming a superstar and franchise cornerstone for a Mariners franchise that hasn’t made the playoffs since 2001.

Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

M’s and O’s, Oh My

Sitting on the longest playoff drought in major North American professional sports (21 years), the Mariners are riding a 22–3 run into the second half, including a 14-game winning streak. Their bullpen has been the best in baseball in July (8–0, 1.67), while Julio Rodríguez is the rare young player who quickly has become a winning cornerstone, reminiscent of Derek Jeter in 1996, Evan Longoria in 2008 and Buster Posey in ’10. They win close games at a freakish rate (54–31 the past two years) that seems statistically unsustainable, until you realize they have the fifth best pitching staff in baseball.

The Orioles have been almost as impressive lately, although their underlying offensive metrics show some concern. Only the White Sox and Tigers chase more pitches out of the strike zone. But their secret sauce is a combination of fantastic defense (third in defensive runs saved) and a growing belief that they can grab a playoff spot.

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deComeback

Only Yu Darvish and Randy Johnson struck out more batters in their first 198 career games than Jacob deGrom. Nobody can exert more influence on the second half and postseason than deGrom, who has a 1.94 ERA over his last 91 starts but has not thrown a major league pitch since July 7, 2021. He was initially scheduled to throw a simulated game on Tuesday, but that was pushed back to Thursday after on Sunday he reported what the Mets are calling “mild muscle soreness.” The sim game will serve as his fourth minor league rehab start, and as long as there are no further setbacks, deGrom could be back in the Mets’ rotation as soon as Tuesday.

Other potentially huge second-half returns include Dustin May, Blake Treinin and Walker Buehler of the Dodgers, Lance McCullers of the Astros, Yadier Molina of the Cardinals, Bryce Harper of the Phillies, Wander Franco of the Rays and Fernando Tatis Jr. of the Padres.

Judge is having his best season yet, which is made all the more impressive because he’s playing center field primarily.

Erick W. Rasco/Sports Illustrated

Milestone Watch

Aaron Judge could be the first player in the PED testing era to hit 60 home runs. His teammate Giancarlo Stanton came the closest, when he hit 59 homers in 2017, his MVP-winning season while he was still with the Marlins. Judge’s single-season high is 52 home runs, also in ’17, when he was a rookie. Judge has 33 homers entering Thursday’s doubleheader against the Astros.

Julio Rodríguez could become the second rookie with 30 home runs and 30 stolen bases (Mike Trout, 2012). He enters the second half with 16 homers and 21 steals. Even if he doesn’t reach the 30/30 mark, he should be the third rookie with a 25/25 season (Trout; Chris Young, ’07).

Justin Verlander, in his age-39 season, has a chance to be the oldest 20-game winner since Mike Mussina (2008). Like Verlander, Mussina was also 39 that year, when he won 20 games. Unlike Verlander, who has won 20 games in a year twice before, Mussina did it for the first and only time that year, after which he retired. Verlander (12–3, 1.89 ERA) is scheduled to start Thursday at home against the Yankees.

Guardians third baseman José Ramírez leads the American League with 75 RBIs. He is on pace to drive in 135 runs and strike out 66 times. That would make him the first player since Don Mattingly (1985) to lead AL with at least 130 RBIs and no more than 70 strikeouts.

Albert Pujols needs 37 total bases to pass Stan Musial (6,134) and move into second place all time, behind Henry Aaron (6,856). Pujols had 31 total bases over 88 plate appearances (46 games) in the second half of last season.

Miguel Cabrera needs two RBIs to pass Ted Williams and move to 15th all time.

Sandy Alcantara is on pace for the first 240-inning season since Johnny Cueto in 2014, and the first sub-2 ERA over 246 innings since Dwight Gooden in 1985.

Juan Soto needs 44 walks to pass Ted Williams for the most career walks through his age-23 season.

Better Baseball

The more uniform (less lively) baseball has done its job toward returning the game to a better version. The per game rates of the three true outcomes are all down: walks to their lowest level since 2016, strikeouts to their lowest since ’17 and home runs to their lowest since ’15. Balls in play are up to their highest level since ’18.

“Now not every hitter can go backside home run,” Verlander said, “but the big boys still can. Before it didn’t make sense for anybody to try to steal a bag or put the ball in play when guys were getting paid on home runs and OPS. Now you’re seeing more guys shortening up and putting the ball in play.”