With Vlad Guerrero Jr. Extension, Blue Jays Recognize the Value of a Homegrown Star

After falling short in bids for Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto, Toronto spared no expense to keep its franchise player from leaving in free agency.

The Blue Jays are reportedly committing $500 million to their star first baseman. / Jonathan Dyer-Imagn Images

The Toronto Blue Jays made sure Vlad Guerrero Jr. didn’t make it to free agency, where their bids for Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto came up empty. The Jays retained their first baseman with an agreement on a 14-year deal worth $500 million. The signing is an enormous one besides the half billion dollars. Here are the biggest takeaways from the deal.

1. The two biggest contracts in baseball history by net present value belong to corner players, not athletic, up-the-middle players.

Soto ($765 million over 15 years) and Guerrero have never started a major league game up the middle. Neither is an elite defender or runner.

The size of their deals reflects two elements in their favor: their age (at 26, teams know there are more prime years to buy) and the scarcity of hitting. The five lowest league-wide batting averages in the 53 seasons with the DH have all occurred in the past six years.

Until two years ago, there had been only one $300 million contract for a corner-only player (Giancarlo Stanton). In the past 27 months, there have been three: Rafael Devers, Soto and Guerrero.

2. Exit velocity is his friend.

Teams have come to trust exit velocity as a reliable measurement of talent and a predictor of success. Guerrero hits the ball very hard and very consistently. Over the previous five seasons, he ranked no worse than the 91st percentile in exit velocity. The EV leaders since 2020: Aaron Judge, Stanton, Ohtani, Yordan Alvarez, Guerrero. No flukes there.

3. The Blue Jays have their biggest franchise player ever.

No one has ever played 1,500 games for the Jays. Guerrero should get there before he’s halfway into this deal. Also within range: Carlos Delgado’s team record 336 home runs and Tony Fernandez’s team record 1,583 hits. There is added value in having a homegrown iconic player.

4. Elite contracts are getting longer.

I’ve written about how players age 36-plus are declining in numbers and production in today’s faster game. And yet teams keep guaranteeing huge sums to players as they age through their late 30s. Until 2019, there had been one contract of 12 years or more: Stanton. Then the Phillies signed Bryce Harper for 13 years. Guerrero’s deal is the seventh contract of 12 or more years in the past six years.

Some of it is an accounting trick: Spread out the money to reduce the hit on the payroll as calculated for luxury tax purposes. But we’re also talking about some hitting prodigies who were signed at 16 or 17 and started their service time clock early, guys like Harper, Julio Rodríguez, Fernando Tatis Jr., Soto and Guerrero.

Just 26 years old, Guerrero Jr. is already a four-time All-Star. / Kevin Sousa-Imagn Images

5. Don’t get hung up on what kind of player Guerrero might be from age 37 to 40.

Miguel Cabrera (OPS+ 90) and Albert Pujols (87+) were slow, below-average hitters by then. Think of it as a tax bill. Those years are the cost of acquiring an elite player’s prime, the halo effect of having a superstar wear your uniform (in this case, no other uniform) and the revenue and goodwill that comes from reaching historic milestones. 

6. There is more in the tank.

Guerrero hits a ton of groundballs for an elite hitter. From 2021 to 2024, only Josh Bell and Carlos Santana grounded out to the pull side more than Guerrero. He hits the ball on the ground 48.5% of the time, well above the MLB average of 44.4%. The good news is his rate has come down from 52.3% in 2022, and you’re likely to see fewer grounders as a natural progression.

7. President Mark Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins probably bought themselves more time.

 This was a must-have sign, and they got it done. They still need a solid left-handed power bat to complement Guerrero. (Switch-hitter Anthony Santander is not enough.) Over the previous four seasons Daulton Varsho has been the Jays’ only qualified left-handed hitter, posting OPS+ of 99 and 84 the past two years.

8. Deadlines can be false narratives.

Guerrero said he would not discuss an extension if a deal wasn’t reached before spring training. Two months later, he got his $500 million. Kudos to the Blue Jays for hanging in there and getting it done.