Previewing UFC Uruguay: Shevchenko vs. Carmouche DFS Tips

Some quick Daily Fantasy tips and picks for UFC Uruguay featuring Shevchenko vs Carmouche.

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Next weekend we have a fire card. (UFC 241: Cormier vs Miocic)  Till then, let’s dive into this Saturday’s card from Montevideo, Uruguay.  Ever been there?

Some Quick DFS Reminders:

As mentioned in the tip sheet above, here’s my MMA DFS Heat Chart for UFC on ESPN+ 14.  As you can see, the chart is ranked based on fight finish odds. Fight finishes are where the points are at in MMA DFS. Take a quick glance at the stack, and we will break down the individual match-ups below.

Two key offensive metrics are strikes and takedowns. They get off on their opponents, watch your points rack up quick. Here's my Offensive Output Meter for the card. With this chart, you can compare historical fighter averages in these two, key metrics as I rank all fighters participating Saturday.

WIN PROBABILITY PRIOR TO WEIGH-INS:

QUICK PREDICTIONS ON THE MATCH UPS:

(Hit me up if you want to chat more)

MAIN EVENT:

Shevchenko vs Carmouche

These two fought ten years ago and Carmouche actually won via TKO. Times have changed but I do think the line is heavily exaggerated.  I believe Carmouche can hang around but Shevchenko’s striking advantage will be evident.  Should be closer than expected.

CO-MAIN:

Luque vs Perry

This will be fireworks, and I’ll be surprised if we hear the final bell. Perry is a fan favorite as he is always about turning it into a street fight and throwing bombs. Luque will be a tough test for him though, and he’s coming in tied with the most consecutive finishes in the UFC (active) with five. I’ve seen him wobbled but he’s never been KO’d which is Perry’s sauce. I see this like the Luque/Niko Price fight where Price eventually got sub’d.

REST OF CARD:

Garagorri vs Bandenay

Man. Garagorri making his UFC debut AT HOME and way up on the card. Not sure whats up here. He’s 12-0 but against some very questionable opponents. Bandenay is pretty game even though he got KO’d via slam against Gabriel Benitez (fluke?) and decisioned/dominated against Austin Arnett (not very good).  Even though Garagorri hasn’t had as tough a schedule, he’s ended his last 7/8 fights in one round. I wouldn’t think the UFC would put him this high on the card at home to get crushed. I’ll take a stab.

Oezdemir vs Latifi

Rebooked like a hundred times.  Latifi is crushed he couldn’t fight this one in Sweden. As much as I like Latifi, if he gets tagged, he’s done.  Oezdemir beat Dom Reyes last fight but got screwed.  He’s gotta still be pissed.  Tough match up in my opinion for Latifi. Can’t trade with this guy. He may get him down at some point, but Volkan should have the better tank and land, especially in Uruguay instead of Sweden.

Vieira vs. Piechota

If you don’t know, Vieira is an absolute stud grappling. Piechota got sub’d by Meerschaert. 

Barzola vs. Moffett

Barzola and his cardio gets its done. Enrique will have the crowd too.

Burns vs. Kunchenko

Kunchenko is 20-0 and has two wins in the UFC against Alves and Okami, both whom are on the downhill IMO. Burns coming in short notice and and up a weight class looking to pick off this undefeated record. Gotta love it. I do.

Gane vs. Pessoa

One of my favorite fights on the card. Gane trains with Ngannou and is a beast. Pessoa is undefeated and sleeps dudes as well, but he’s going to taste his own medicine Saturday.

Torres vs. Rodriguez

Torres is a name here. I’ve followed her career and she’s solid. But Rodriguez will throw some smoke. I love this fight and wouldn’t be surprised if the newcomer makes a name for herself. Tread lightly on Torres.

Bontorin vs. Paiva

I bet on Paiva as a dog against Kara-France and I think he beat him.  (I know I’m not alone) He was all up in Bontorin’s grill at the weigh ins.  Heavily motivated to get back in the W column.  Paiva has enough takedown defense and size to avoid the sub.

De Freitas vs. Gutierrez

Gutierrez is a tough kid, and can sneak this one.  He opened almost 2 to 1.  I’m with De Freitas and hoping he can get down on some take downs and win some rounds.

Vargas vs. Da Silva

Heavy line move at 5dimes.  Don’t get sucked in, it’s an error.  Stick with Da Silva.

Macedo vs. Viana

Viana will have some reach advantage, also a short notice fight.  Macedo opened +130 and has moved to -130.  I’m staying oppo the steam.  Viana for me.  DEC.

Worth a look on DFS:

STARS:  Gane, Shevchenko, Vieira,
SCRUBS: Rodriguez, Burns, Paiva

Betting Plays:
Carmouche/Shevchenko O3.5 +102
Luque SUB +280
Vieira SUB -130
Garagorri -115

Any questions, hit me up at @Y2CASEY.