NBA Draft Stock Watch: Who Is Rising Ahead of March Madness?
With college basketball’s postseason approaching and the trade deadline having passed, front offices around the NBA have started shifting their attention toward the 2020 draft in earnest. And as always, prospects across the landscape have begun building real momentum.
Our latest mock draft highlighted some of the current trends, and an expanded ranking of the Top 80 draft prospects is on the way. For now, you’ll find an extended look at some of the most notable movers below.
Devin Vassell, SF, Florida State | Sophomore
Vassell continues to put together a convincing case as a Top-20 prospect, combining a long frame, projectable shooting, strong defensive acumen, and his relative youth (he won’t turn 20 until August, making him younger than some college freshmen). A 27-point performance on the road at Virginia Tech in which he shot 7-for-7 from three-point range was a significant feather in his cap, and the strides he’s made offensively point to some legit potential as a two-way wing player. There are lingering questions about his ability to attack closeouts and create offense for himself, but he’s been able to produce despite rarely having his number called, and as part of a rotation that doesn’t feature a natural playmaking-oriented guard. Vassell has shown some potential as a pull-up shooter and needs to get to the rim more, but he may be good enough defensively that even an average offensive outcome turns him into a highly useful rotation cog.
Vassell’s defensive wherewithal is terrific, and he naturally racks up blocks, steals and deflections with his length and broad frame. His sheer size and activity level helps take away passes from a visual standpoint, and at the college level, he sometimes walls off entire segments of the floor. Florida State fields the tallest roster in the country and has been unusually good at turning teams over, and Vassell has played a huge part in that success. He recently missed a game due to an apparent benching from Leonard Hamilton, but has since returned to the lineup. With all he brings to the table, the lottery may not be out of the question.
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Saddiq Bey, F, Villanova | Sophomore
Bey has really come on over the course of the season for Villanova, and appears to have turned a meaningful corner in terms of confidence and performance. He’s always had a strong frame and attractive base skill set for a perimeter-oriented combo forward. Coming into the season, teams were hoping for more consistency, and Bey has delivered on that, to the point where it would be surprising if he didn’t up a first-round pick (he clocked in at No. 21 on our latest mock draft). Multiple scouts have offered soft comparisons to Robert Covington, in the sense that Bey combines superb defensive positioning with above-average catch-and-shoot play.
Teams often feel a level of security projecting Villanova prospects into NBA roles—Josh Hart, Jalen Brunson and Donte DiVincenzo have all been success stories and been drafted outside the lottery. Bey’s 46% three-point clip on 149 attempts likely isn’t sustainable, but it’s no less impressive, and also coupled with improved free throw shooting (albeit in a small sample). He’s looked composed and confident, particularly when shooting from the corners, and offers enough passing and rebounding to project as an eventual rotation piece with some confidence. Bey turns 21 next month, and may not have the innate off-dribble chops to play his way into the lottery, but he certainly looks ready to make the NBA leap. He’ll fall inside the Top 20 in our next set of rankings.
Kira Lewis, PG, Alabama | Sophomore
Teams have taken note of Lewis’s improved consistency and massive flashes of talent, denoted by a series of impressive recent performances that should cement him in first-round conversations. In February, he scored 37 points in an overtime win at Georgia, had 13 assists and one turnover in an overtime loss at Auburn the following game, and 11 assists with zero turnovers over the weekend in a blowout win at Ole Miss. Lewis boasts incisive speed, can finish in the paint, shoots the ball well enough to project some translation, and has continued to hone his decision-making and distribution skills in a real way. One crucial matter of note: Lewis, as a sophomore, is still a couple months younger than all three of R.J. Hampton, Cole Anthony and Nico Mannion, which helps reframe his performance in the context of this draft class. His rapid, ongoing improvement, particularly if Alabama can string together some wins at the end of the season, could theoretically vault him into that group of guards in the right scenario.
Breakout aside, there had been some trepidation over what caliber of playmaker Lewis actually is, and some of his numbers are attributable to logging heavy minutes and being Alabama’s sole ball-handler. He can still be mistake prone, and while he’s improved playing in ball screens, he’s still learning how to control the flow of play in the halfcourt. Some scouts have concerns over his extremely slight frame, as well—he’s listed at a meager 165 pounds, and will have to get stronger to get the most out of his downhill style. It’s tough to be a starting point guard at his size. Still, there’s some real momentum gathering here, and a strong close to the season could see his stock rise further.
David Johnson, PG, Louisville | Freshman
Johnson’s name has been buzzing in NBA circles as a potential first-round talent, albeit it might be more likely that happens next year than in 2020. He’s shown flashes of immense passing vision and made Louisville a much better team since returning from an injury that short-circuited his season, and his ability to throw diagonal passes and find teammates is advanced and unusual for a freshman. Johnson is crafty and judicious with the ball and can make plays on the move, although he sometimes falls prone to over-dribbling, and is still getting up to speed at the college level. His size and ability to move the ball over and around defenses has really stood out, and it’s clear the Louisville native was under-ranked as a high school prospect.
What it all means for his draft stock is a tad bit murky, as his ongoing shooting struggles from the foul line and three-point arc aren’t overly convincing, and in a guard-heavy draft, Johnson will need a more concentrated push in production and consistency to really gain traction as a legit first-rounder. That said, he’s shown enough that he’s clearly worth consideration as a project, and he’s been well ahead of schedule for Louisville. He’s one to track closely in the post-season.
Grant Riller, PG, Charleston | Senior
Riller has made a strong case as the best senior prospect in college hoops, on the back of a prolific career at Charleston and a pretty impeccable offensive résumé. Riller is an outstanding finisher at the rim, with strength and vertical pop in tight spaces, and brings a pretty complete offensive package for a scoring guard. He’s not particularly big, and some scouts have questioned how good of a passer he is, but the more you watch Riller play, the more convincing he is athletically in terms of translation. He’s tough, relentless, and has the makings of a really good backup guard and second-unit scorer. He hasn’t exactly been a secret, and he has a reasonable chance to be the first senior off the board—sneaking into the late first round isn’t totally out of the question, at least on paper.
With remarkable efficiency and head-turning athleticism, Riller is a relatively easy sell for open-minded teams, and if he can find a way to hold his own defensively at his size, he should be able to get buckets in a legitimate, multi-faceted capacity. It’s possible he could be even more situationally effective when he’s drawing less defensive attention, but he’s been able to do a whole lot in college while drawing plenty of attention as his team’s top option. Riller is experienced and consistent enough to help a team right away next season, and is one of the mid-major prospects the NBA is taking very seriously. He just turned 23, but the sell here is less about upside and more about valuing the things he already does so well.
Cassius Stanley, G/F, Duke | Freshman
On paper, it was unclear what type of role Stanley would even play for Duke coming into the season. Those concerns have turned out to be largely unwarranted, as he appears to have fully embraced a lower-usage, complementary role, where he’s primarily been tasked with making open shots, cutting away from the ball, and applying his freakish athletic ability in a positive fashion. Stanley is still a bit rough around the edges skill-wise, and he can be over-reliant on that athleticism on the defensive end, but at the very least, there’s now a case for him as Duke’s most appealing NBA prospect—a scenario nobody anticipated back in the fall.
It’s worth noting Stanley turns 21 later this year, which places him in the same age bracket as many older sophomores, and calls into further question his issues creating offense off the dribble. He’s not much of a pull-up shooter at all, nor has he offered secondary playmaking on a consistent basis. But Stanley has made good on most of his opportunities and done a nice job manufacturing them, simply by playing hard. His outlier athleticism can’t really be undersold, and provided he can work himself into a non-zero offensively, there’s a chance it comes together. Stanley isn’t a surefire first-rounder, but he’s certainly won some people over, and has worked his way firmly into draftability.
