NBA Best Bets (Mar 11): Will 'South Beach Flu' Hamper Hornets vs. Heat?
I have to admit these half-point loses the past few nights have not sat well with me. But it's important to remember that you won't win every night. Sports betting can be very tough. You have to realize that for every half-point loss, there will be a half-point win. That's why bankroll management is one of the best things you can practice because it will help keep you in the game during losing streaks. Remember, bet with your head and not over your head.
We have six games on the slate tonight. Once again it should be a tricky slate. Hopefully we don't see all the double-digit comebacks that we saw last night. If we do, hopefully we are on the right side of them.
Charlotte Hornets vs. Miami Heat: Heat -10
It was fun betting on the Hornets for the first time this year earlier this week. Charlotte should have covered and won that game. Too bad they didn't. Now it's time to go back to betting against them.
The Hornets have one of the worst road records in the league at 12-21 straight up. Tonight they are in Miami to face a Heat team that only has four home loses on the season. Miami has won its last four home games and already has a 17-point home beat down of the Hornets under its belt. Jimmy Butler could sit out for the Heat tonight, but I don't think it will make a difference.
Miami has not played since Sunday night, so they come into this game well-rested. The Hornets, on the other hand, played in that double-overtime game on Monday night. The Hornets could have very well spent last night enjoying South Beach—that's what young teams tend to do in Miami. I think it plays a part in why Miami is so good at home. I think the Heat make easy work of the Hornets tonight.
Denver Nuggets vs. Dallas Mavericks: Mavericks +3
The Nuggets and Mavericks meet tonight in Big D in what should be one of the games of the night. This nationally televised game is not attracting as much action as I thought it would, but that could pick up as the day moves along.
I have struggled to bet on both the Nuggets and the Mavericks this season. Denver didn't look good to start the season, and by the time they got rolling I was already turned off after losing money on them early. As for Dallas, I was betting on them at home and losing, while also betting against them on the road and losing. I finally figured out that Dallas was overvalued at home and undervalued on the road. As far as tonight goes, I think the rest of the NBA betting community has figured this out as well, which means it's time to go the other way.
The Nuggets have not been playing well on the road as of late, yet the public is backing them on more than 60% of tickets. Denver is 1-3 straight up on the road in their last four road games—that number is 0-4 when you factor in the point spread. Dallas, on the other hand, is 3-1 straight up in their last four home games.
The cat is out the bag that the Mavericks have struggled on their home court and I think bookmakers are looking to hit us with a pump fake tonight. I'm fading the Nuggets and going with Dallas.
Season Record: 84-74
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