NBA Trade Deadline: Key Names to Watch
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The trade deadline is tomorrow! Even though there’s a decent chance we don’t see too many notable names change teams before it passes—the play-in tournament, lack of tradable draft picks, robust buyout market and financial squeeze the pandemic has placed on every organization are all reasons why this deadline may be motionless—here are several players who probably should be dealt, even if some ultimately aren’t. A list like this could be 100 names long; here are nine plausible candidates I’ll have my eye on.
Aaron Gordon
A longtime NBA curiosity for a lot of people is how Aaron Gordon would look on a contender—or at the very least a club that can aspire to become one. We may soon find out!
Any team interested in Gordon has to be particularly excited by the fact that he’s made a stunning 45.7% of his catch-and-shoot threes this season (21-for-46). That number likely won’t stay high through the entirety of a playoff run (Gordon’s previous career best was 39.2% in 2018, and last year he was at 32.5%, which is closer to his average), but it does support arguments for his excelling as a supplementary piece better utilized off the ball—cutting, spacing, rebounding, setting screens and unleashing a majority of his energy on the defensive end.
Before last week, a serious ankle injury had kept Gordon on the sidelines for all but 13 minutes since Jan. 31, which wasn’t great for teams thinking about trading a draft pick and/or young talent for him. Then he went 7-for-8 from the outside in an upset win over the Nets. Thanks to all of Orlando’s injuries, Gordon has also filled in as a backup point guard.
Count me as a believer in how a new environment can transform Gordon’s general on-court worth and perception. Roles matter, and with lesser, more concrete responsibilities on a more competitive team that doesn’t ask him to run a dozen pick-and-rolls every game, he can be far more effective.
The Celtics have always made sense, considering they already have a built-in offensive pecking order: Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Kemba Walker would all have higher usage rates than Gordon. The Wizards could really use his athleticism and defense on the wing. (Is there a universe where they’re willing to part with Deni Avdija, under the idea that Gordon is a better fit in their current Bradley Beal–Russell Westbrook framework?) The Nuggets can acquire a close Jerami Grant facsimile by offering Gary Harris, RJ Hampton and their unprotected 2021 first-round pick. (More on Gordon later.)
Harrison Barnes
In many important ways (defense) that will likely keep them out of the play-in tournament, the Kings are atrocious. Harrison Barnes is not. According to Cleaning the Glass, he’s averaging 1.24 points per shot attempt and a 13.7 assist rate. Both are by far the best of his career. His free-throw rate is also, by far, the highest it’s ever been. Barnes has championship experience, a reliable three-point shot and an offensive game that’s comfortable on or off the ball. The pressure he’d put on defenses as the third or fourth option on a good team, curling off dribble handoffs, getting downhill and finishing at the basket, is very attractive to any contender or playoff hopeful trying to add him.
Defensively he’s an interchangeable presence, stout and shifty at the same time. Every team that’s good would be better with him on its roster, especially the Celtics, Heat, Nuggets, Suns, Blazers, Knicks and at least six other candidates. Actually getting to the $22.2 million he’s due to complete a trade is trickier for some of those teams than for others, but all should at least sniff around and try. Of all the players who may change teams this week, it’s easy to picture Barnes finishing with the best plus/minus in the playoffs.
That, of course, requires him to actually get traded. As already stated, the Kings are bad. They might have also forgotten that this NBA season is not the last one. They will still exist in 2022 and 2023 and beyond; steps made to brighten their future should carry precedent over an inconceivable run at the play-in tournament. (If the Kings foolishly hold onto Barnes, keep an eye on Nemanja Bjelica, who entered this season a career 39.3% three-point shooter.)
Rhona Wise/USA TODAY Sports
John Collins
To be frank, I don’t understand why the Hawks would ever trade Collins. They want to make the playoffs. He’s a significant reason why they’re positioned to do so, improving as a defender and only 23 years old. Pay this man his money and then figure out the rest later. The Hawks are better on both ends when he’s on the court and minutes shared with Trae Young yield a +6.6 net rating, top-two offense and top-10 defense. Collins is an ideal pick-and-roll partner with Young, a pair of young building blocks with organic synergy who even appear, of late, to be getting along!
With a relatively crowded frontcourt (Clint Capela, Danilo Gallinari and then eventually Onyeka Okongwu all need minutes) and a seemingly significant gap between Collins and the organization regarding his monetary value, a breakup may be imminent. If kept, the Hawks will likely have to face a marketplace this summer with several teams that are willing to offer far more than the $90 million extension they previously did.
So, how about a deal that sends Collins and Tony Snell to the Magic for ... Aaron Gordon and a first-round pick that’s lottery protected over the next few years? The Hawks can start the 25-year-old at the three or four and gradually integrate him in wing-centric groups that will give opposing teams matchup fits on both sides of the ball. When moonlighting as Young’s roll man, Gordon would be a highlight-happy spectacle. He’s never played with a point guard like this or been in a situation where the off-ball elements of his game can impact winning. Defensively, the fit is obvious and ideal. Cam Reddish, De’Andre Hunter and Aaron Gordon? Magnificent.
Meanwhile, if Orlando has the stomach it can pay Collins his max this summer and either roll out a massive Nikola Vucevic, Jonathan Isaac, Collins trio that has enough shooting and defensive mobility to actually work (the Hawks have looked good with Collins next to Capela) or build around the latter two as one of the more exciting young frontcourt tandems in basketball. And speaking of Vooch ...
Nikola Vucevic
Even though he’s 30 years old on a team going nowhere anytime soon, it’s unlikely the Magic will trade this season’s third-best center behind Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokić. He’s averaging 25 points and 12 rebounds per game, knocking down as many threes per night as Jamal Murray.
But if Orlando does decide to kick-start its inevitable rebuild by dangling Vucevic’s career year on the trade market, one relatively clean partner might be the Pelicans. Assuming New Orleans is allowed to trade Steven Adams—whose recent extension muddies the possibility of his being involved in any deal this season, even though his name isn’t listed as ineligible here—it can offer him and three first-round picks for a center who can work the high post, pop for threes and space the floor for Zion Williamson. If Adams can’t be dealt, then this proposal obviously falls apart. If he can, the Magic may still want another young piece and the Pelicans may be unwilling to part with so many draft assets. (If Orlando executes other transactions at the deadline with Gordon, Evan Fournier or Terrence Ross, maybe a package like Adams and three firsts is enough.)
There are issues defensively, and Vucevic’s age isn’t exactly on Zion’s timeline. But the Pelicans would be much closer to the playoffs next season if they do this deal (assuming they re-sign Lonzo Ball and Josh Hart over the summer), and getting Zion there as soon as possible should be an organization-wide priority.
Surrendering three firsts sounds like a lot, but it’s not quite so bad for a team that owns all its own selections, plus two unprotected first-round picks from the Bucks, two unprotected first-round picks from the Lakers and a few pick swaps with both franchises sprinkled in through 2026.
If not New Orleans, what about pairing Vucevic with Zach LaVine in Chicago? Along with their own top-five protected pick in this year’s draft and another future first-round pick, the Bulls can send Wendell Carter and Otto Porter’s expiring contract to Orlando. The Bulls might be wary of filling a chunk of this summer’s cap space with an aging center, but if things don’t work out they can still likely move off that deal (which decreases each year until it expires in 2023) and recoup an asset or two. LaVine’s next contract looms large in the summer of 2022, though. It’d be a surprise to see Chicago make any drastic moves before that situation gets settled.
Victor Oladipo and Norm Powell
These two 6 ' 4" sticks of dynamite are listed together because they 1) play the same position, 2) are extremely likely to get traded, and 3) it’s fascinating how one feels like he’s usurping a bit of the other’s clout.
A week into this season, Oladipo looked like a gold bar for any team that had enough cap space to lure him away from the Pacers. Coming off a devastating leg injury that left him and Indiana at a loss for what they could expect almost two full years after it originally sidelined him, Oladipo fit fine beside Malcolm Brogdon and Domas Sabonis in a fresh offense that accentuated his strengths.
But then he was traded to a team that lost 20 straight games. Oladipo didn’t compete in all of them, but in 20 inconsistent starts with the Rockets he’s barely shot 40% from the field and can’t get anything going with his pull-up three, the shot that helped lift him to an All-NBA team in 2018.
To be fair, Oladipo has made 40% of his spot-up threes and been effective around the rim, but has also been unable to get there as often as he did in Indiana—whether that’s due to a worse supporting cast, a shift in how he’s utilized, or lingering physical issues is unknown; it might be some combination of all three. Regardless, potential suitors have reason to be weary, especially knowing they might be able to sign him outright this summer without having to give up any assets now.
On the surface, a team like the Celtics might see Oladipo as a shot of adrenaline. But recent comments by Danny Ainge suggest paying the two-time All-Star what he believes he deserves this summer isn’t a road Boston has any interest going down. Some teams will sell themselves on Oladipo’s pedigree and upside, though, even if it’s just with the intention to kick the tires for a playoff run. (He may very well find himself playing on four different teams in a 12-month span.) But right now—and this summer if you’re a team with cap space like the Heat, Mavericks, Spurs or Knicks—attention once given to Oladipo should shift to Powell, who’s one year younger, comes with less baggage and might ... be a better player?
Even in a season that’s seen historically efficient offense from several teams and players, what Powell is doing remains a revelation. The numbers are absurd: 19.7 points, 49.5% from the field and 43.4% from behind the three-point line. Coming into this season, only 10 players ever finished with a true shooting percentage above 64% and a usage rate higher than 24%. Six players are at that benchmark right now: Zion, Embiid, Zach LaVine, Steph Curry, Nikola Jokić and ... Powell.
Powell isn’t the playmaker Oladipo is, but at least some of the difference is thanks to the roles they’ve filled on their respective teams. Powell isn’t a bad passer, and wherever they both go next, playmaking will be less paramount than their ability to score all over the court at an efficient level. Right now, thanks to one of the better pull-up jumpers in basketball this season (he’s the sixth-most accurate shooter among all those who’ve attempted at least 80 pull-up threes) Powell is the more dynamic option. Bigs who try to take outside looks away by inching up on the perimeter inevitably find themselves eating dust. He’s destructive going downhill.
As we approach the deadline, most in Toronto are primarily focused on Kyle Lowry, with good reason. But even though both are expected to be wearing a new jersey by the weekend, Powell is almost the more intriguing pivot point for an organization that’s only one year removed from referring to themselves as “defending world champions”.
Trading him for future assets equals a step back—which makes sense given their 17–26 record. It also eliminates the clearest incentive to keep Lowry (which is an honest attempt at a lionhearted playoff run). No trade means the Raptors will either lose him for nothing or find themselves investing a significant percentage of their payroll on four players: Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby and Powell. (Lowry can also be re-signed.)
That foursome is formidable. It’s also not good enough to win a championship. But, just for the sake of argument, if Toronto did keep Powell, when the next disgruntled star becomes available, it would be there to package two of those contracts (plus picks) in the type of win-now trade few of its competitors may be able/willing to top.
When the smoke clears, be it Friday or sometime in July, the Mavericks should have either Oladipo or Powell on their roster. That fit is gorgeous.
Ron Chenoy/USA TODAY Sports
Al Horford
Horford is 34 years old, three years removed from his last All-Star appearance, currently sporting the second-highest usage rate of his career. He makes some sense in Oklahoma City, where on-court stoicism and off-court assuredness are useful in a rebuilding environment. They have a top-five defense when he’s on the floor, too.
But if there’s a contender out there that believes Horford’s presence can push them over the top, Sam Presti should be amenable to a deal. There’s enough logic to handing the frontcourt keys to 21-year-old Moses Brown (one of the tallest people I’ve ever seen) and 19-year-old Aleksej Pokusevski (a living legend).
Financial realities make an actual deal unlikely, though. Horford is owed $27.5 million this year and $27 million next season, which is too much for any contender to pay a player who probably won’t close any playoff games. It’s almost three times as much as the Clippers are giving Serge Ibaka. (This is random, but I want to include it: Horford has attempted 22 free throws in 756 minutes this year!)
Before LaMelo Ball fractured his wrist, the Hornets were a fitting albeit still distant possibility. Horford is the selfless stretch five that offensive system craves. Terry Rozier and Gordon Hayward were his teammates in Boston. If Mitch Kupchak is willing to part with Cody Zeller, Malik Monk and Jalen McDaniels, and the Thunder are willing to include one of their eight zillion first-round picks, this could’ve been a decent bit of business for all involved.
The one pretty meaningful downside (besides Horford’s age) is it’d eat almost all of Charlotte’s cap space this summer. But with several other teams having money to spend and so few impact players available, who could they even get? Andre Drummond? Lonz ... wait, actually that would be incredible. Never mind, this make-believe deal is off. (If the Thunder do trade anyone it’s probably going to be George Hill, who hasn’t played a game in exactly two months.)
Lauri Markkanen
It’s an offbeat situation we’re seeing throughout the league: The Bulls should be sellers but aren’t because they have a chance to crack the play-in tournament and get a taste of postseason play for the first time Jimmy Butler was traded. Thaddeus Young, Tomas Satoransky and Otto Porter Jr. make more sense on a team standing on firmer ground. That’s just facts.
Markkanen, once a pronounced building block, is instead in the same boat as Collins: a young, talented restricted free agent who might be valued more by other teams than his own. There’s no real fear of losing him for nothing. If a monstrous offer sheet comes in, matching it is always an option—unless there’s strong internal belief that Markkanen just isn’t very good, which might be the case.
The Bulls have been significantly worse when he plays, which is largely due to the starter/bench disparity in Chicago that recently motivated Billy Donovan to place Young and Satoransky in the first five. Markkanen starts games but doesn’t always finish them—Porter closed out a recent crunch-time loss against the Nuggets—and has only grabbed 10 or more rebounds once this season. That said, his career-best shooting numbers are hard to completely ignore. Despite missing 20 games, the seven-footer has seen his true shooting percentage soar to 62.1, and he’s making a terrific 77% of his looks at the rim.
Maybe the Timberwolves turn their attention here if they don’t get Collins or Gordon—two forwards they reportedly have some interest in. If not, perhaps the Spurs, Suns, Pelicans, Rockets, Cavaliers, Pacers or Kings may try and get in on him.
Devonte’ Graham
Ball’s fractured wrist resets Charlotte’s in-season expectations, but the Hornets are still his home. Gordon Hayward still has his own guest house in the backyard, and the finished basement still belongs to Terry Rozier. This isn’t terrific news for Devonte’ Graham, who lost his starting lineup spot during the All-Star break and is a restricted free agent this summer.
Even though the Hornets can afford to keep him on a very low eight-figure salary, it makes little sense to invest in an undersized ball-handler on a team that already has Ball, Rozier and Hayward. (This same logic applies to Malik Monk.)
It’s unclear what Graham’s trade value actually is, though, or if the Hornets are still motivated to make the playoffs this season. One year removed from getting absolutely robbed in the Most Improved Player race, a sluggish start and some injuries have led to a disappointing third year for Graham, who’s only hit 29.4% of his pull-up threes while his attempts and accuracy around the rim have absolutely plummeted.
He was also pretty awesome in 2020—only four players hit more threes and only seven averaged more free throws—and owns the most impressive on/off net rating (by a decent margin) on a team that can make the playoffs. There are contenders (Sixers, Bucks, Clippers), playoff hopefuls (Warriors) and teams on the outside looking in that could use Graham’s ability going forward (Magic) that may try to pry Graham away from the only team he’s ever played for. The question is how much do the Hornets value their future over the present?
What are the Spurs up to?
The San Antonio Spurs have famously not made a trade deadline move since 2014, when they swapped Nando De Colo for Austin Daye. Before that, nine years ago they sent Richard Jefferson, T.J. Ford and a first-round pick (that later became Festus Ezeli) to the Warriors for Stephen Jackson. In other words, during one of the more frenzied weeks on the NBA calendar, the Spurs tend to hibernate.
But right now, coming off their first playoff-less season in 22 years, the Spurs find themselves entering a fresh stage of their life cycle. They have several young pieces contributing to a respectable 22–18 record, but with their path back to title contention unclear and a brutal post–All-Star break schedule awaiting them, San Antonio heads into tomorrow as an intriguing variable.
LaMarcus Aldridge is already away from the team, waiting to be moved or bought out. Leftover are several talented veterans on expiring contracts who don’t necessarily line up on the same timeline as their young core. DeMar DeRozan, Patty Mills, Rudy Gay and 25-year-old Trey Lyles are all about to enter unrestricted free agency. To varying degrees, each one helps them win. Therein lies that same dilemma: go for the playoffs knowing the play-in tournament widens any chance to qualify, or swiftly embrace the future, recoup assets and remove the risk of losing anybody for nothing this summer.
The Spurs already have a stable of fascinating homegrown building blocks: Dejounte Murray, Keldon Johnson, Derrick White, Devin Vassell and Lonnie Walker. In late February, 21-year-old Luka Šamanić briefly entered Gregg Popovich’s rotation, too. How those six players develop is more important to the organization’s future than whatever happens tomorrow. If they feel confident that several are ready to take a major step forward, the need to re-sign DeRozan, Mills and Gay dims.
Another key element worth keeping in mind is all the cap space San Antonio has at its disposal should it choose to let those aforementioned vets walk. Would they make a max offer to Collins or a sizable one for Markkanen? Go hard after Oladipo? Throw a small bank at Duncan Robinson? Does Kawhi go back to where it all started? (Sorry, I couldn’t help myself.) There are exciting possibilities in San Antonio, even if nobody is paying attention.
