Aside from bringing leadership and intangibles to Tampa Bay, the oddsmakers are expecting Tom Brady to take Bruce Arians’ offense to another level in 2020. Many fantasy experts and pundits project Brady to easily surpass his declining numbers of 2019. He will have far superior offensive weapons at his disposal, led by Pro Bowl wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin as well as two athletic tight ends in O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate.
According to early offseason projections, the Buccaneers head into the season with the 16th-easiest strength of schedule. That ranking is enhanced by playing in the NFC South, which features two of the worst defenses in the NFL from last season. The Carolina Panthers led the league in points allowed (470), while the Atlanta Falcons (399) ranked fifth-worst. It is safe to project that Brady will feast in those four games in 2020.
Here’s where oddsmakers have set the over/unders for Brady’s total yards, touchdowns and interceptions for the 2020 season. All odds courtesy of BetOnline.
Tom Brady - Total Passing Yards 2020 Regular Season
Over 4350 Passing Yards (-115)
Under 4350 Passing Yards (-115)
Last season, Brady threw for 4,057 yards but was often was extremely limited as his receiving corps, outside of Julien Edelman, struggled to gain separation against elite competition. In the past three seasons, he’s averaged 4,330 yards, which comes in only slightly below the posted total of 4,350 offered by the oddsmakers.
In Arians’ offense, not only is Brady expected to throw significantly more, but he will now have an elite supporting cast consisting of arguably one of the NFL’s best wide receiver duos in Evans and Godwin. If an inconsistent Jameis Winston was able to throw for 5,109 passing yards last season , even at age 43 Brady should exceed this number.
My model projects that the only way this prop wager does not go over the total is if Brady were not able to play a full 16-game season. Prior to any additional moves and draft choices, my model projects Brady for 4,510 yards for this upcoming season. I am willing to wager that Arians and the Bucs coaching staff will make sure Brady is well protected with five-step drops and will get superior production from the accurate signal caller.
Pick: Over 4,350 Total Yards
Tom Brady - Total TD Passes 2020 Regular Season
Over 32½ TD Passes (-115)
Under 32½ TD Passes (-115)
Brady has only thrown more than 33 touchdowns in a single season five times in his career. My model currently projects that Brady will finish among the top q0 in this category in 2020, but will fall short of the sportsbook’s posted total of 32.5. Last season, only Lamar Jackson (36) and Jameis Winston (33) were able to exceed this number.
Brady only managed to throw for 24 touchdowns last season. He’s tossed an average of 28.3 touchdowns over the past three seasons. My model currently projects a total of 27.9, which is significantly short of this number.
Among the three wagers, this is easily the best bet according to the model, especially if Brady is unable to play a full allotment of games due to injury. I would expect as sportsbooks around the country come back online, this number may be closer to 29.5 at sharper Vegas shops because this number appears to be extremely high. I would get down on the under at this sportsbook immediately.
Pick: Under Total Touchdowns (32.5)
Tom Brady - Total Interceptions 2020 Regular Season
Over 10½ Interceptions (-115)
Under 10½ Interceptions (-115)
As all NFL fans know, Brady tends to hit the turf under extreme pressure rather than looking to extend plays that can expose his body to big hits. In addition, there may not be a better quarterback in history who’s learned to throw the ball away instead of trying to force throws into tight coverage.
Last season, he only threw eight interceptions. He’s thrown more than nine just once (11 in 2018) since 2014. Brady actually threw double-digit interceptions in seven of his first nine seasons as starter. However, just like fine wine, the ageless signal caller has only gotten better with age. He has only thrown 45 interceptions over the last six years.
However, Brady could be asked to take more chances downfield in Arians’ pass-heavy scheme which could lead to more 50/50 balls. This is a tricky market as my model projects 10.2, which is too close to the posted number. This is a strong pass for me.
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