AFC West Win Totals: How Many Victories Will Each Team Have in 2020?
The AFC West may look like the AFC East for the next decade or so if another team in the division doesn't find a franchise quarterback. The Patriots and Tom Brady dominated their division since 2001, and the Chiefs are already on the way there with Patrick Mahomes coming into his third year in the league. Here's a look at the win totals for each team in the AFC West:
Kansas City Chiefs – 11.5 wins (Over -115; Under -115)
The shift in power in the NFL now lies in the hands of Mahomes and the Chiefs. They are 6-1 to win the Super Bowl and 5-1 to win the AFC West in 2020. Kansas City won their division in each of the previous five seasons with a combined 57-21 record while averaging 11.4 wins per year.
Surprisingly, Kansas City improved much more on the defensive side of the ball in 2019 than offensively. They allowed 113 fewer points than they did in 2018 (421) thanks to great play by Chris Jones (36 tackles and nine sacks in 13 games) and Frank Clark (37 tackles and eight sacks in 14 games).
Their biggest surprise on defense came in the secondary. The Chiefs moved to eighth in passing yards allowed (3,543) and passing touchdowns allowed (21) after ranking 31st in passing yards allowed (4,374) and 22nd in passing TDs allowed (30) in 2018. In the regular season, they gave up 154 catches for 1,956 yards and 11 TDs on 272 targets to the wide receiver position (226/2759/14 on 379 targets in 2018).
The loss of running back Kareem Hunt paired with a Mahomes high ankle issue and a shoulder injury to wide receiver Tyreek Hill led to a regression of 114 points scored (565 points in 2018 and 451 in 2019).
I expect Kansas City to upgrade the running back position in the draft while having the ability to draw talented veteran players who want a chance at winning a Super Bowl. Mahomes will only get better, and the Chiefs may even find another playmaker at wide receiver.
Their most challenging games on the road outside of their division come in Baltimore, Buffalo, New Orleans and Tampa Bay. They have a date with both the Texans and the Patriots at home.
The Chiefs will get picked off in a game at home while going possibly 2-2 in their toughest road venues.
Pick: Over 11.5 wins
Denver Broncos – 8 wins (Over -105; Under -125)
After going 9-7 in 2016, the Broncos have been in rebuilding mode. They fell to 5-11 in 2017 while picking up one additional win over the next two years (6-10 then 7-9). Vegas ranks them last in the division based on odds (11-1), but Denver has an over/under of eight wins (second-highest in the AFC West) in the season-long prop. The public appears to be bettering on the under based on the moneyline (-125).
The 2020 excitement for the Broncos comes with the emergence of quarterback Drew Lock over the final five games (4-1 with 7 TDs and 3 INTs), but he only averaged 204 passing yards per game and 6.6 yards per pass attempt.
They signed running back Melvin Gordon to help beef up the run game. Denver has a developing young wide receiver in Courtland Sutton, and tight end Noah Fant should continue to improve.
The Broncos have five draft picks inside of the first three rounds in the 2020 NFL Draft. They would love to land a top wide receiver prospect, but they've invested five of their top six picks on offensive players over the past two seasons.
At some point, Denver needs to make sure that their defense doesn't have a significant regression. Von Miller isn't the player he once was based on his regression in 2019 (46 tackles and eight sacks) while starting the year at age 31. The Broncos played 12 games last year without Bradley Chubb, who dominated in his rookie season (60 tackles and 12 sacks) after getting drafted fifth overall in 2018. The defense lost cornerback Chris Harris but added cornerback A.J. Bouye.
They have an extremely tough home schedule (KC, LAC, LV, BUF, MIA, NO, TB, and TEN) with no layups on the road (ATL, CAR, KC, LAC, NE, NYJ, LV, and PIT). I can't see them going 3-3 in their division with two tough games against the Chiefs. A win over Miami should be expected at home. To make the over, they would need five wins in these matchups: BUF, NO, TB, TEN, @ATL, @CAR, @NE, @NYJ, and @PIT.
Pick: Under 8 wins
Los Angeles Chargers – 7.5 Wins (Over -130; Under +100)
The instability at quarterback with Philip Rivers leaving town gives the Chargers the widest range of outcomes in 2020. As of now, Tyrod Taylor is slated to start at quarterback. His running style and resume isn't the best fit for the structure of this offense, but Taylor may give them the best chance to win out of the gate.
The Chargers have four pieces to the offensive pie ready to rock and roll with running back Austin Ekeler, wide receiver Keenan Allen, wide receiver Mike Williams and tight end Hunter Henry.
They have two outs at quarterback this year. Los Angeles would love to land Tua Tagovailoa with the sixth overall pick, but they have to contend with the Dolphins (picking fifth). I don't believe Justin Herbert is ready to lead an NFL franchise in 2020 while being possibly overpriced in the draft to boot.
With Cam Newton and Jameis Winston looking for new homes, the Chargers could buy a year by signing either player as a discount if they struggle to find jobs before the draft. By adding either option, L.A. could compete for a playoff spot this year with the hopes of developing a young quarterback as well.
Los Angeles added cornerback Chris Harris to their secondary, and they will have the services of safety Derwin James for a full season. James was exceptional in his rookie season after getting drafted in the first round in 2018. The Chargers will slow down the passing game, and they have a dynamic pass rusher in Joey Bosa.
The Chargers are 10-1 to win the AFC West.
Pick: Over 7.5 if they have Tagovailoa, Wintson or Newton starting at QB. I'd bet the under for all other options for now until I have more information on the team's offensive structure.
Las Vegas Raiders – 7 wins (Over – 115; Under -115)
In his first season as the head coach for the Raiders, Jon Gruden went 4-12 while weeding out the players that weren't committed to his future plan. His reward for trading his top players in 2018 led to four draft picks inside of the first 40 picks last year: DE Clelin Ferrell (1.4), RB Josh Jacobs (1.24), S Johnathan Abram (1.27), and CB Trayvon Mullen (2.8). The Raiders have two more first-rounders coming in 2020 (No. 12 and No. 19) plus three selections in the third round (No. 80, No. 81, and No. 91).
The defense added cornerback Eli Apple, safety Jeff Heath and linebacker Cory Littleton, which will add veteran experience.
Offensively, quarterback Derek Carr works well as an accurate game manager while being somewhat exposed when asked to lead the way in a chaser game. Running back Josh Jacobs looks to be the real deal, and we didn't see the best of him last year due to a battle with a shoulder injury. Even with the signing of wide receiver Nelson Agholor, Las Vegas is loaded with questions at wide receiver. Tight end Darren Waller played at a high-level in 2019, and repeated success should be expected.
The Raiders have an excellent chance of landing a top wide receiver prospect in the first round of this year's draft.
Las Vegas is 10-1 to win the AFC West while projecting for the lowest win total in the division.
This season, the Raiders play the AFC East (BUF, MIA, @NE, @NYJ) and the NFC South (@ATL, @CAR, NO, and TB) plus @CLE and IND outside their division.
This franchise is moving in the right direction, but they still allowed the most points (419) in the AFC West. I like the coaching staff and Gruden will get the most out of his players. If the defense takes a step forward, Las Vegas has the tools to run a ball-control offense with success, especially if they do improve the talent at the wide receiver position. When adding in the lights of a new city, I sense another step forward in 2020.
Pick: Over 7 Wins
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