The NFL Draft is near, and teams have mostly made their play during free agency. Let’s take a closer look at the season win total projection for the teams in the AFC East:
Buffalo Bills - 9.5 Wins (Over -110, Under -110)
The Bills have had an extremely successful off-season, adding WR Stefon Diggs and solidifying their already tough defense by bringing in new talents (Mario Addison and A.J Klein) and re-signing their own top players such as Jordan Poyer. Head Coach Sean McDermott is a meticulous tactician who makes terrific adjustments in-game and has the team prepared to play every week. To win the division, the Bills need to add another running back to complement RB Devin Singletary. Singletary started to break out towards the end of the season, but the team does not like to use him in the red zone, preferring a larger back. However, the real key to winning the “over” on this bet is the play of QB Josh Allen. If he continues to grow as a passer then the Bills will be a lock to win 10-plus games.
Pick: Over 9.5 Wins
Miami Dolphins - 7 Wins (Over -120; Under +100)
For a team that was supposedly “Tanking for Tua,” the Dolphins have slowly emerged as a team that can make a quantum leap forward by the 2021 season. The Dolphins have three first-round draft picks in 2020 as well as two second-round picks. They have done a terrific job of adding key pieces on defense in free agency with the addition of CB Byron Jones, LB Kyle Van Noy, DE Shaq Lawson, and many others. Right now, the problem is on offense where the team lacks a franchise QB and a good running game. The Dolphins brought in RB Jordan Howard as a stopgap, but they need to add someone in the draft for sure. I think I would take the “under” this season, but this is a team that is closer to making an impact than people think.
Pick: Under 7 Wins
New England Patriots - 9 Wins (Over -105; Under -115)
I never want to rule out any team that is coached by Bill Belichick, but the loss of Tom Brady can’t be understated. He is the GOAT and was a coach on and off the field. The Patriots lack offensive weapons and lost many key defensive players (Kyle Van Noy, Jamie Collins, Danny Shelton) in free agency. The team’s signing of QB Brian Hoyer signifies that they are going to go with second year QB Jarrett Stidham as their starter, as they try to keep the team afloat without going into full rebuild mode. Belichick is a master, but this team really feels like they will be 8-8. Take the “under.”
Pick: Under 9 Wins
New York Jets - 6.5 Wins (Over -120, Under +100)
There are a lot of people who think that QB Sam Darnold’s bout with mono was the only thing holding the Jets back from making the playoffs in 2019. I disagree. The Jets’ biggest problem is still their coaching staff, led by Adam Gase, who always seems to miss out on poor player evaluations (see Jay Ajayi and Kenyan Drake). With Gase still not fully committed to giving the ball to RB Le’Veon Bell 20-plus times a game, and the fact that the team still does not have a true WR1, the Jets will continue to struggle on offense. Defensively, the return of LB C.J Mosely should make a huge difference, but the secondary does not have anyone who can cover the opposing team’s top target. I would gladly take the “under” as I can see this being another long season for Jet fans.
Pick: Under 6.5 Wins
MORE FROM SI GAMBLING