NFL Schedule 2020: The Week 17 Sunday Night Football Flex Power Rankings
There has never been a more precarious time to predict what the end of the NFL regular season may look like.
For the last four years, I have brought you my Week 17 Sunday Night Football Flex Power Rankings (2019, 2018, 2017, 2016), my annual parlor game where I comb through the final week of the schedule and handicap which games are most likely to get flexed into Sunday Night Football.
For years I have helped amplify the #Game256 hashtag, recognizing it as the Crown Jewel of the Regular SeasonTM. A lot has happened since last season’s column, including the startling realization that, as it stands today, we can’t say for certain that there will be a true #Game256 ever again. I am hopeful, but look at the evidence.
Even after MLB cut its season down to 60 games, the league has seen dozens of games postponed due to positive COVID tests, going to the extreme lengths of scheduled seven-inning double-headers in an effort to get them all played. College football games and scrimmages have already been canceled, even among the schools and conferences that have decided to play this season (see: TCU vs. SMU). NBA games were called off by wildcat strikes from the players to draw attention to racism and police brutality after the police shooting of Jacob Blake in Kenosha, Wisc. They were rescheduled and played, but it led to speculation we could see similar strikes in the NFL, where it would be much tougher to make the games up.
So there are some reasons we may not get to 256 games in 2020. But why do I say ever again? Well, next year Week 17 won’t be the last week of the season. The schedule will expand to 17 games and 18 weeks. #Game256 will no longer be the final puzzle piece in the playoff picture. Will Week 18 follow the same rules, with the biggest game of the week flexed to prime time? I would assume so. Will #Game272 have the same ring to it? I guess we’ll have to get used to it.
But as we cross our fingers and hope to get through an NFL season uninterrupted, and steel ourselves to say goodbye to the 256-game era, we can take comfort in an extra layer of intrigue within the final edition of the Week 17 SNF Flex Power Rankings. The playoff field expands this year, to seven teams in each conference. Theoretically more teams will be alive for wild-card spots. (Although perhaps more teams will be locked into the playoffs and rest starters if they don’t care about the difference between a 5 seed and a 6.) So perhaps more games will have playoff implications and flex appeal in the wild-card race, no matter how the division standings shake out. It’s hard to know quite yet, but at least we all get to find out together.
As a reminder, I am ranking the games I think are most likely to be flexed, not the games I would most want to see. Once more I present the NFL season preview column nobody asked for. Let’s rank Week 17 one last time.
16. Jaguars at Colts
The AFC South has historically done well in these rankings; it’s the division we all look at every fall and say, “Looks pretty up-for-grabs this year!” But that top-to-bottom intrigue isn’t there this year, as the Jaguars are everyone’s punching bag as they dodge accusations of tanking. They are unlikely to be in the playoff hunt come Week 17, thus making it unlikely this game will matter to both teams. Many people are high on the Colts this year, but the fact remains that the Texans and Titans are the two returning playoff entrants from this division and their matchup will rank much higher.
15. Raiders at Broncos
Whenever a division has one clear favorite, the other game from that division finds itself lower on the list. I feel confident the Chiefs will have the AFC West locked up by Week 17, meaning this would probably have to be a win-and-in wild-card game to get flex treatment. Vegas and Denver both appear to be sleeper teams who some pundits are putting into the playoff picture, but I think it’ll be tougher for both of them to be in the mix down to the final week. It’s plausible, but I think it’s likely there will be a better game somewhere else.
14. Saints at Panthers
I’m giving the Panthers the Jaguars treatment here. I just don’t think they’re going to be competitive enough in 2020. I like a lot of what I’ve heard about Matt Rhule, but this isn’t a one-year project. The Saints should be in the playoff hunt, and if they were playing against one of this division’s other playoff hopefuls there’s a good chance they’d be in the top three of these rankings. But this game seems likely to matter only to one team.
13. Washington at Eagles
For years now, this column has had an admitted NFC East bias. This stems from the stretch from 2011-2013, when the game served as an de facto NFC East championship game three years in a row, and from the fact that NBC has openly admitted it loves getting NFC East games because of the ratings those teams draw. If they matter, they’ll get picked. But this is not the year. If the Eagles were playing the Cowboys, they’d be my No. 1 pick. But splitting them up hurts the chances of both NFC East games.
Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports
12. Cowboys at Giants
Back-to-back! Shutting the NFC East out of my top 10 is a historic amount of restraint for me. The Giants have a better shot of being postseason relevant than Washington, so I’ll put them one slot ahead, but I don’t want to get carried away with the division this year. I expect two playoff teams and two non-playoff teams, and this year’s schedule makes scoreboard watching during simultaneous games more likely in Week 17 than a flexed game.
11. Dolphins at Bills
The Dolphins have a chance to be a little friskier than the NFC East’s presumed also-rans. The Bills are also pretty appealing. They have made the playoffs in two of the last three seasons, but haven’t won the division since 1995. They spent much of the offseason as division favorites, until the announcement of Cam Newton’s signing in New England caused many to predict that the Patriots’ reign would continue. I do have the Bills winning the division, and it would be dramatic to watch a potential clinch night in Buffalo, especially if, by December, fans are able to attend the game. Tua Tagovailoa also has the potential to be a major draw (just look at his league-leading jersey sales over the summer). I don’t quite think this is going to be the most important game on the Week 17 slate, but I think if it matters, this is an appealing game that the network could talk itself into.
10. Ravens at Bengals
Much like Tua’s Dolphins, Joe Burrow’s Bengals would make for a fun story if they are in the mix for a playoff spot in the last week of the season. I put this game one slot higher because the Ravens are more likely to be in the hunt than the Bills. They could be battling the Steelers for the AFC North and/or battling the Chiefs for a first-round bye. The Ravens made for great TV last year, and if this game is relevant to both teams, it would be fun to see in a stand-alone window. Still a relatively big if, though.
9. Jets at Patriots
Tom Brady is gone, but the Patriots are still the Patriots. It will be a fascinating experiment to see if they make the postseason. This game rates higher than Bills-Dolphins because I think the Patriots are far more interesting than the Bills, and the Jets are more likely to be alive than the Dolphins. Patriots-Bills could’ve been a top game—just like Eagles-Cowboys or Ravens-Steelers. It feels like we have a lot of pretty good games but were deprived of some possible great ones.
8. Packers at Bears
A classic rivalry game always gets extra points. These two teams were chosen to start the NFL’s 100th season on NBC last year, and they already play on Sunday Night Football in Week 12, but I don’t think people would mind seeing them again for an important game. If you rank every NFL team’s chance to win its own division, the NFC North and NFC West would be the spots where the fourth-likeliest teams have the best odds. They are divisions where the final standings could come in any order without being particularly shocking. As a result, it’s a little tough to rank them. But Aaron Rodgers in prime time is always a draw, particularly facing that Chicago defense. Whether it’s Mitchell Trubisky or Prime Time Nick Foles at the helm by Week 17, the Bears are the team that would take a little more work to hold up their end and get this game flexed.
7. Steelers at Browns
Here’s another game that I think would be an easy choice if it matters. Baker Mayfield’s Browns were the most hyped team in the league this time last year, coming off Hard Knocks as the offseason champs with all the swagger in the world. Then they let everyone down. The Steelers, meanwhile, fell apart on offense without Ben Roethlisberger, but are primed for a bounce-back if he’s healthy. It’s a tough division with the Ravens, and it would take a bit of a better year from the Browns than many seem to expect after last year’s letdown. But if they can get close to the expectations everyone had for them a year ago, they could have a shot to end their playoff drought at home in front of a prime-time audience.
6. Vikings at Lions
I’ve mentioned a few matchups where I think the game would have a strong interest, but is less likely to be relevant. Here’s one where I think the higher ranking reflects a greater likelihood of the game being important but maybe less national interest. No offense to the Vikings or Lions, of course. Mike Zimmer’s team often feels slept on, but they have five straight seasons at .500 or better, with three playoff berths in that span, and Kirk Cousins finally won a playoff game last year. Meanwhile, Matt Patricia’s Lions are eager to prove they’re better than last year’s record, and more like the team that started hot before Matthew Stafford went down. They also now have longtime Viking Adrian Peterson, so I guess that’s something.
5. Chargers at Chiefs
The Chiefs are the most entertaining team to watch in the NFL. This was true during the 2018 season, and for much of the 2019 season even though the Ravens gave them a run for their money, but now they have the added cachet of being the defending Super Bowl champions. While certain teams like the Cowboys, Steelers and Packers have had national appeal forever, the Patriots didn’t become a TV ratings juggernaut until Tom Brady and Bill Belichick came along. The Chiefs could easily become the It Team of the 2020s, and any “Which Team Would You Want On TV?” list has to include them. The Chargers are a team everyone always wants to feel good about in August and early September, and they are as likely as the Raiders and Broncos to either challenge the Chiefs for the division or compete for a wild card. I just don’t think they’re as likely as the underdogs in the four games ranked higher on this list.
Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports
4. Cardinals at Rams
You may have noticed we haven’t reached an NFC West game yet. The division most seem to think is the best in football will make up two of the top four games on this list. This division had two playoff participants last year but both teams on the outside looking in have their share of admirers this year. The Cardinals are a pundit darling to make a leap in Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray’s second seasons. The Rams have now turned over significant chunks of their roster since reaching the Super Bowl two years ago and would have made the playoffs if the field had expanded to seven teams per conference last year. The NFC looks to be deeper than the AFC, and plenty of teams could be in the mix. While neither of these teams are conference favorites, they’re both on the list.
3. Titans at Texans
These two teams both made the playoffs last year, and I have them both making it in 2020 as well. They met in Week 17 last year, in a meaningless game to the Texans after they had already clinched the division (Deshaun Watson sat in favor of AJ McCarron). The Titans cruised to clinch their playoff spot and gave Derrick Henry enough carries to top 200 yards and wrap up the rushing title. Both of these teams were good enough to go up double digits on the Chiefs in the playoffs last year … of course we know how that worked out. And even though everyone has made a lot of the fact that DeAndre Hopkins will not be playing in this game, I still think Houston is an obvious playoff contender. Whether they’re fighting for the division crown or for seeding, this game could easily matter to both teams this time around.
2. Falcons at Buccaneers
Tom Brady’s Bucs are the story of the year. After 20 years in New England, he is taking his six Super Bowl rings and his talents to Tampa. In Week 17 he’ll meet the Falcons, who he embarrassed in the Super Bowl a few years ago. Atlanta came on strong at the end of last season to save Dan Quinn’s job, and they could be the difference between making the NFC South a good division or a great division. New Orleans is the favorite, but it would not be a surprise to see either of these teams win it. Or to see them both alive in either the division race or the wild-card hunt. Raymond James Stadium will host the Super Bowl in February, and it could just get the prime-time party started early with the final regular season game as well.
1. Seahawks at 49ers
This would mark a rematch of last year’s Game 256, and they gave us such a good one in 2019, I can’t imagine people would complain about Round 2. Last year’s battle came down to literally inches, with Jacob Hollister being tackled just shy of the goal line on fourth down in the final seconds. That gave the 49ers the top seed and forced the Seahawks to go on the road in the playoffs. The Rams and Cardinals are popular picks (see their ranking at No. 4), but this game pits last year’s NFC champion against a team with a superstar quarterback that’s perennially in the hunt. If both teams are as good as they were last year, NBC could once again flex a game that features a great rivalry, much-talked-about coaches and plenty of stars on both sides. It was a perfect ending to the regular season last year, it would be great this year, and I can only hope—if it remains safe to do so—that we get to see all 256 games currently on the schedule.
