NFL Power Rankings: Playoff Picture Rounding Into Form After Week 13
We are now firmly into December, which means that the dreams of the NFL as a whole are about to get seriously narrowed down.
At this point, I see eight or nine teams with the ability to win the Super Bowl from where I’m sitting. They are not necessarily the top nine teams in these power rankings, but it’s close enough.
This past week’s games made it fairly obvious: There is professional football being played, but there is also an abhorrent, borderline-tanky incompetence that defines the league’s lower class. Games are either beautiful, like the 4 p.m. window this past week, or something close to unwatchable.
And so, we can begin to relegate those teams from our consciousness as we pivot toward the real meat of the 2022 season. More good. Less bad.
1. Philadelphia Eagles (11–1)
Last week: win vs. Tennessee, 35–10
Next week: at New York Giants
One of my favorite parts of the Eagles’ win over the Titans on Sunday was when Miles Sanders blasted Amani Hooker on a Jalen Hurts designed run, which went for a touchdown. It’s the kind of play that only works with complete and total buy-in from every person on the roster and the reason the Eagles are truly successful (beyond all the stars they’ve acquired and the really good coaching staff).
The Eagles had to celebrate in Philadelphia after a runaway win over the Titans to improve to 11-1.
Matt Rourke/AP
2. Dallas Cowboys (9–3)
Last week: win vs. Indianapolis, 54–19
Next week: vs. Houston
Their pummeling of the Colts and the speed at which they could mount an unbreakable lead against a professional defense was stunning. Yes, they are facing Jeff Saturday, but they are also facing a Gus Bradley defense with solid players and at least one capable cover corner. To abuse them like that was a sign of something truly special.
3. San Francisco 49ers (8–4)
Last week: win vs. Miami, 33–17
Next week: vs. Tampa Bay
I am on the Brock Purdy bandwagon (clearly). Ultimately, this defense is great, this running game is years ahead of the rest of the NFL and, by virtue of that, the quarterback will have less of a problem moving the football than he would have otherwise.
4. Buffalo Bills (9–3)
Last week: win at New England, 24–10
Next week: vs. New York Jets
The most criticized 9-3 team in the NFL gets to put one of their ugliest losses of the season in the rearview mirror this weekend against the Mike White-led Jets. Their defense has not allowed a 100-yard rushing game in almost a month, which, considering the time of year and their opponents of late, is a huge complement.
5. Kansas City Chiefs (9–3)
Last week: loss at Cincinnati, 27–24
Next week: at Denver
It’s always wild to hear people say they have the secret to beating Patrick Mahomes. Sure, if you can drop eight players and effectively win with a three-man pass rush you’re going to have an easier time slowing him down. Not many teams can do that as artfully as the Bengals. Mahomes is still on the MVP crash course.
6. Minnesota Vikings (10–2)
Last week: win vs. New York Jets, 27–22
Next week: at Detroit
When the Vikings are completing deep YOLO balls to Jalen Reagor against one of the best secondaries in the NFL, you know it might be their year. In all seriousness, what has become clear to me is that you have to play the Vikings almost perfectly in order to beat them, and there are only a select few teams in the NFL with the right scheme and personnel. AND…even then, they can still find a way to get Justin Jefferson into a good matchup once and throw a quick touchdown on the board.
7. Cincinnati Bengals (8–4)
Last week: win vs. Kansas City, 27–24
Next week: vs. Cleveland
When we wrote about Joe Burrow and the Bengals for this year’s football preview issue, the crux of our piece was that there’s no reason why this team cannot be a perennial contender because of Burrow. What we didn’t know was how well the Bengals would continue to mold personnel around Burrow and put him into situations where he can simply be Burrow. Against the Chiefs the past three times (Burrow and Tom Brady are the only QBs in the NFL who are undefeated against Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs teams) that has been the ticket.
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8. Miami Dolphins (8–4)
Last week: loss at San Francisco, 33–17
Next week: at Los Angeles Chargers
This is not a knock on Tua Tagovailoa, but I wonder if the Dolphins will take Sunday’s loss to the 49ers as a recognition that he will be challenged more as a thrower in the back half of the season. Like the 49ers, Miami can probably survive regardless of how he answers the bell, but they could also extend their season if he makes certain throws look routine.
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6–6)
Last week: win vs. New Orleans, 17-16
Next week: at San Francisco
In an otherwise sleepy game against the Saints, Tom Brady threw the latest game-winning touchdown pass of his career, and capped the biggest fourth-quarter comeback of his career since the 28-3 Super Bowl versus Atlanta. If you somehow made it that late into the game, you were treated to a small nugget of NFL history. It’s for moments like these alone that we cannot fully count them out of a legitimate postseason run.
10. Baltimore Ravens (8–4)
Last week: win vs. Denver, 10–9
Next week: at Pittsburgh
With Lamar Jackson on a week-to-week injury diagnosis, the Ravens remain in a kind of a holding pattern. They have been unable to reclaim the best of what they were and are forced to do what they (unfortunately) do best: scrap, fight and claw.
11. Tennessee Titans (7–5)
Last week: loss at Philadelphia, 35–10
Next week: vs. Jacksonville
The Treylon Burks injury was gutting for the Titans, as they were just starting to see some real downhill momentum with their rookie wide receiver. This was a tough game for them stylistically, without any movement from Derrick Henry and no second-level threat to push the defense back. That said, the Titans are still going to Titan. They’ll be back.
12. Los Angeles Chargers (6–6)
Last week: loss at Las Vegas, 27–20
Next week: vs. Miami
Brandon Staley missed a huge opportunity to exorcise some demons against the team that knocked him out of the playoffs last year. At this point the Chargers can be both injury-riddled and inconsistent. They can be both incredible and maddening. But if the end result is something close to .500, it is not good enough.
13. Seattle Seahawks (7–5)
Last week: win at Los Angeles Rams, 27–23
Next week: vs. Carolina
I don’t know if we, as a football public, have fully crossed over yet from “Oh Geno Smith is playing really well for a backup kind of guy” to “my goodness Geno Smith is dissecting defenses,” but it may be time. The play-action throw to DK Metcalf to begin the third quarter was a complete dart.
Smith threw for 367 yards and 3 touchdowns in the Seahawks’ 27-23 win Sunday.
Marcio Jose Sanchez/AP
14. New York Giants (7-4-1)
Last week: tie vs. Washington, 20–20
Next week: vs. Philadelphia
Ultimately, I’m not going to throttle the Giants for being in a situation where a practice squad cornerback, matched up on Curtis Samuel, gives up some catches at the end of the game. We always knew New York was going to rub up against the reality of its roster situation, and Sunday’s game was a perfect example of that. On a positive note, Kayvon Thibodeaux looked really good.
15. New England Patriots (6–6)
Last week: loss vs. Buffalo, 24–10
Next week: at Arizona
This is my last week rating the Patriots too high before I begin the process of dropping them like they’re the stick figure in the Mad Men opening credits. You hear me, Matt Patricia? One more chance—I’m not messing around anymore.
16. New York Jets (7–5)
Last week: loss at Minnesota, 27–22
Next week: at Buffalo
Jets fans caught up in the obsessiveness of this season are going to quickly lose perspective. They are in all of these games—very difficult games—and they aren’t getting blown out despite a less than optimal quarterback situation. If I had to pick between either New York team crawling into the postseason, I like the Jets slightly more.
17. Washington Commanders (7-5-1)
Last week: tie at New York Giants, 20–20
Next week: BYE
In contrast to the Patriots facing a sudden plummet, the Commanders may have to prepare for a vault up the rankings. God bless them, they’re turning the NFC playoff picture into absolute chaos, and now have an almost 70% chance of reaching the playoffs, according to FiveThirtyEight. A phenomenal scheduling quirk allows them to get the Giants again coming off a bye (while the latter has to go through Philadelphia), increasing the odds that Washington could legitimately contend for the No. 6 or No. 7 seed in the NFC.
18. Green Bay Packers (5–8)
Last week: win at Chicago, 28–19
Next week: BYE
The Packers are confounding to watch right now. One minute Aaron Rordgers is passing off open routes underneath for deep balls to Randall Cobb, and the next minute, A.J. Dillon is dealing again or Christian Watson continues to scorch defenses at a breakneck pace. It continues a pattern of inconsistency that makes 2022 so hard to swallow.
19. Las Vegas Raiders (5–7)
Last week: win vs. Los Angeles Chargers, 27–20
Next week: at Los Angeles Rams
Facing the Chargers is always a good way to keep a strong running game humming. I don’t think we’ve fully touched on how much more explosive Josh Jacobs has become as a running back this year, and tackling efforts to drag him in the backfield were laughably ineffective Sunday. And, Davante Adams has had double-digit targets every week for the last five weeks as the offense finally starts to move through him like a dominant point-forward in basketball.
20. Detroit Lions (5–7)
Last week: win vs. Jacksonville, 40–14
Next week: vs. Minnesota
The Lions put up a whopping 40 points on the Jaguars Sunday, further elevating offensive coordinator Ben Johnson into one of the few no-brainer slots for vacant head coaching positions (both those that are actively open and ones to come).
21. Pittsburgh Steelers (5–7)
Last week: win at Atlanta, 19–16
Next week: vs. Baltimore
Kenny Pickett played football as advertised on Sunday: decisively, often firing as soon as his back foot hit the third step, and accurately. (Some of his misses felt intentional once he got a better look at how the defense was reacting.) Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but the … TKTK
22. Atlanta Falcons (5–8)
Last week: loss vs. Pittsburgh, 19–16
Next week: BYE
It feels like Arthur Smith has “gotten all the toothpaste out of this tube,” to quote podcast cohost Gary Gramling. The Falcons have lost four of five heading into their bye week, and it may be Desmond Ridder time, which will give us something to watch for as they try to make one last push for a playoff spot in the dismal NFC South.
23. Cleveland Browns (5–7)
Last week: win at Houston, 27–14
Next week: at Cincinnati
Here comes Deshaun Watson, at one time the favored son of this city from a sports standpoint. A smile on his face as he takes the field for the first time as a member of the Cleveland Browns…
If you searched under deep-wooded rock piles to find Sunday’s Browns-Texans game, this is how you were introduced to Deshaun Watson’s first on-field action in almost two years. The lead play-by-play man, Spero Dedes, channeled his inner Cris Collinsworth and decided to roll with a description of Watson’s facial expression instead of, you know, the reason why Watson hasn’t been playing football.
As I hope you know by now, he was sued by more than two dozen women, who alleged graphic accounts of sexual assault and harassment. Though, by the tenor of this broadcast, he was heroically returning from some kind of crippling injury with a purple heart affixed to his shoulder. The broadcast team had multiple opportunities in the opening seconds of this game to recover, including a window of time where the officials were discussing the spot of the ball … but … alas … nothing. “The suspension” is all we got.
To me, this was a sad moment. As podcast cohost Gary Gramling said on the MMQB podcast this week, I need to remember that I am in a world tied to journalistic principles, where they are in a world that is focused on presenting a league-approved product. Fair enough. But I wonder how that felt, just allowing an entire saga that legitimately hurt people—not just Watson’s victims, but victims of sexual assault everywhere; people considering reporting instances of sexual assault and saw how Watson’s case was handled and gave up—to fade into the background.
There’s no good way to pivot to the rest of the power rankings from here other than to say that we can have a discussion about football and about sexual assault in the same space and our heads won’t explode. We don’t have to just ignore the existence of one thing in order to clear the way for our enjoyment of another.
Watson returned Sunday in the Browns’ 27-14 win against his former team in Houston.
Eric Christian Smith/AP
24. Jacksonville Jaguars (4–8)
Last week: loss at Detroit, 40–14
Next week: at Tennessee
The Jaguars are hard to evaluate because they are young and alternately brilliant and underachieving. They had no business getting waxed by the Lions on Sunday, and while I could argue that momentum shifted early due to some ill-timed drops, Jacksonville is a team built to hang in shootouts. Sunday’s game should have been closer. Travis Etienne should have led the team in receiving and helped move the sticks. Ultimately, the Jaguars need another multi-tooled player in the backfield who can help with protections and free Etienne as a checkdown menace.
25. Chicago Bears (3–10)
Last week: loss vs. Green Bay, 28–19
Next week: BYE
I’m sure that most Bears fans don’t feel the way that I do, because I don’t own season tickets or plan my Sundays specifically around hoping for their success, but this season goes down as a win for me. Against the Packers on Sunday, the Bears took it to their division rivals early. Justin Fields connected on some of his deep shots, worked the middle of the field and proved he is still a Run God. Chicago should be looking forward to 2023 in a way I would not have imagined it could have last year.
26. Arizona Cardinals (4–8)
Last week: BYE
Next week: vs. New England
Coming off the bye, the Cardinals get additional rest before a showdown with the reeling Patriots. After losing two straight, they get this game to choose how they want to go down in 2022: swinging, or speculating about whether the team has the right components in place to compete.
27. Los Angeles Rams (3–9)
Last week: loss vs. Seattle, 27–23
Next week: vs. Las Vegas
I wonder whether this period of time ends up being somewhat valuable for Sean McVay. This is a bare-bones operation right now, and McVay can rely only on the remnants of a Super Bowl roster. He can experiment through the end of the season and emerge next year with either Tutu Atwell or Brandon Powell as a regular, solid contributor for his offense.
28. Indianapolis Colts (4-8-1)
Last week: loss at Dallas, 54–19
Next week: BYE
If we’re going to club Jeff Saturday for misusing the clock and getting his doors blown off, I think there are a lot of other coaches who deserve similar criticism. Of course, Jim Irsay knows that he’s provided a first-time head coach with an incredibly short leash for making these kinds of errors, and that any negative situation gets illuminated.
29. New Orleans Saints (4–9)
Last week: loss at Tampa Bay, 17-16
Next week: BYE
Andy Dalton made a beautiful throw that would have locked this game up on a third-and-17, but his intended target, Taysom Hill, dropped the pass having caught it directly in the path of a spearing defender. I’m not criticizing the drop. But I am wondering if Dalton got to choose his top pass catchers on that drive, at that moment, does he really want Hill? Regardless, this Saints team continues to be an incredibly talented and stout defense that is going nowhere in 2022.
30. Carolina Panthers (4–8)
Last week: BYE
Next week: at Seattle
People are going to get after the Panthers for cutting Baker Mayfield (having wasted a bundle of mid-round picks on a handful of non-useful quarterbacks), but I give them credit for staying in the cage to take swings. Ultimately, from an optics perspective, it will be the decision to take the lesser of two good cornerbacks over Justin Fields that may end up harming the Panthers more.
31. Denver Broncos (3–9)
Last week: loss at Baltimore, 10–9
Next week: vs. Kansas City
This is probably the most thorough and fair dressing down of Russell Wilson I’ve seen, completely devoid of personal shots or hidden agendas. He’s missing throws. Wide. Open. Throws. Former NFL quarterback J.T. O’Sullivan does a great job illuminating that here.
32. Houston Texans (1-10-1)
Last week: loss vs. Cleveland, 27–14
Next week: at Dallas
The Texans were flagrantly bad against the Browns on Sunday. While, as a former Browns fan, I agree with the woman in the stands who said she would rather be 1-9-1 than have Watson, it doesn’t mean this is an enjoyable fan experience. That said, there has to be something exciting about sitting in Nick Caserio’s position. In terms of equity, your team is loaded. There aren’t many better opportunities for GMs out there at the moment.
