2023 NFL Offseason Coaching Carousel Preview
We are approaching the 2022–23 NFL coaching carousel in a fast and furious way. There are two jobs currently available and a handful of others firmly in speculation territory.
You can find a more lengthy missive on my current thoughts about the NFL coaching business in my annual September list of future head coaches, along with a fuller and more robust description of each of the candidates listed below.
With the season now up to Week 16, this follow-up exercise is a pared down “finalists” list of the coaches we expect to receive the most attention during the upcoming interview process.
Jobs already open
Interim coach Steve Wilks has performed more than admirably, and deserves a thorough look, even though the Panthers have done work on other available coaches.
Ideally, Jim Irsay would like to turn the gig over to Jeff Saturday long-term. Recent developments on the field have made that difficult from an optical standpoint. However, Irsay is the kind of person who may not care much about optics given the interim decision he made in the first place.
Kingsbury is finishing up his fourth season with the Cardinals, but will the franchise make major changes?
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Jobs that may open
As friend Jonathan Jones of CBS reported, the Cardinals are expected to move on from general manager Steve Keim, who is on a leave of absence. A new general manager could want a year to evaluate Kliff Kingsbury, especially since Kingsbury has assembled a pretty strong coaching staff despite the team’s struggles. A new GM could want to move on immediately. Kingsbury also could be feeling the wear and tear of a few long and trying seasons.
Arthur Smith is going into his third year, which is typically a make-or-break offseason from a contractual standpoint. Coaches do not like going into the final year of their contract without any security, which can also often be a red flag for prospective free agents.
I absolutely think there’s still a chance Nathaniel Hackett could hold onto this job. As we’ve said all year, this is a perception battle—a puzzle for new owners to put together. On one side, you have some turning this into an indictment of coaching. On another side, you have some turning this into an indictment of personnel. How much of Denver’s woes come from the perception of spending a great deal of money and capital on a single player (Russell Wilson) who has not succeeded? How much of Denver’s woes have come down to poor play design and clock management? How much of the play design and the clock management seem poor, when in reality it may be the case of a quarterback unwilling or unaccustomed to doing certain things?
UPDATE: The Broncos fired Hackett on Dec. 26.
The Texans are the worst team in the league, and it’s difficult not to feel like they have hired their two most recent coaches (Lovie Smith and David Culley) as a kind of bridge to whatever their next plan is.
Possible surprises
The Cowboys are loaded talent-wise, and I think there should be more appreciation than criticism on Mike McCarthy, given the way he steered a team through Dak Prescott’s injury. That said, the team will almost certainly lose one of its two high-profile assistant coaches this offseason (offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and defensive coordinator Dan Quinn). CeeDee Lamb and, a little further down the road, Micah Parsons, are approaching a time when they’ll be looking for top-of-the-market or near-top-of-the-market extensions. This was a high-pressure, high-expectation job from the outset.
If the Chargers don’t make the playoffs and make a little noise, I think this offseason will come down to a matter of power and perception, based solely on how I’ve observed different dynamics over the years. It could mean tweaks to the offensive staff; it could mean the personnel staff asserting it’s done enough and the coaching staff has not held up its end of the bargain, with Justin Herbert on a short timeline before he is set to make $50 million per season; or it could mean the coaching staff asserting that management and personnel have not done enough to support their vision. Or some combination of this.
We’re placing this here with no direct knowledge, save for anyone being prepared for anything at all times. We’re dealing with a 71-year-old legend who has already cemented his legacy.
With the end of the Tom Brady era nigh, could we see sweeping changes here? This is doubtful, given that Tampa Bay has a very talented coaching staff and a still-competitive defense.
The sale of a team always complicates matters. One could make an ironclad case for Ron Rivera keeping this job for the way he’s handled an absolute hurricane of nonsense. But if a billionaire 10 times over purchases the team and wants to hire their own person, who is going to stop them?
Payton looms over the coach carousel after one year away from the Saints.
Andrew Wevers/USA TODAY Sports
Notes
• Sean Payton obviously looms over all of this. However, the sense I’ve gotten in two recent conversations with folks in the coaching industry is that there could be a little bit of sticker shock once teams realize they will have to spend somewhere in the neighborhood of $100 million, and work out trade compensation for the Saints (who still retain his contractual rights) and prepare to fork over a big percentage of organizational power. It cost the Buccaneers two first-round picks, two second-round picks and $8 million per year to lure Jon Gruden out of Oakland in 2002. That would likely be the starting point for Payton. Chances are, if it’s going to happen, we may get wind of it soon, as legitimate trade discussions would likely have to ramp up.
• Colts special teams coordinator Bubba Ventrone, who has been on this list for the past few years, may still be a candidate for the full-time job in Indianapolis if Irsay wants to keep the gig in-house but does not want to promote Saturday to a full-time role
• A few weeks ago, when Saturday won his first game as an NFL coach, I wondered whether this would usher in a flood of owners hiring nontraditional coaches they are personally comfortable. At least for now, it sounds like that answer is no. One industry source not connected to the player believed that Josh McCown, the former NFL quarterback who had been eyed for the Texans job and interviewed with the Jaguars last year, would be the true “game-changer” type if he were to be hired and succeeded. Saturday, however, may end up as more of a cautionary tale.
Ryans looks likely to be the next 49ers coordinator to land a head coaching job.
Kyle Terada/USA TODAY Sports
Top candidates
• Shane Steichen, offensive coordinator, Eagles
We published a sizable profile on our top candidate on Wednesday. Steichen has the leadership pedigree, the quarterback pedigree and defensive experience as well. The only difficulty may be in waiting for the Eagles to exit the postseason.
• DeMeco Ryans, defensive coordinator, 49ers
The 49ers are currently the best overall defense in the NFL in terms of expected points allowed per play. They have been punishing down the stretch. Ryans is a brilliant play caller and dynamic presence, and has access to a trove of great offensive coaches in San Francisco.
• Ejiro Evero, defensive coordinator, Broncos
Evero is very highly thought of in Denver. The Broncos are No. 4 in EPA per play allowed and have, at times, single-handedly kept the team alive in tight contests, including a Week 3 win over the 49ers, one of the best offenses in the NFL.
• Raheem Morris, defensive coordinator, Rams
Morris’s true skill and acumen has shown down the stretch with a very undermanned Rams defense stripped of most of its star power and a lack of a complementary offense. He has head coaching experience (three years with the Buccaneers and 11 games as interim coach of the Falcons in 2020) and has been a high-level staffer on both sides of the ball.
• Thomas Brown, assistant head coach, Rams
Brown is engaging, personable and can command a room. He is one of the best-kept secrets in Los Angeles, has footing in both the college and NFL scene and will be able to assemble a talented staff. He would be a Day 1 culture changer.
• Ben Johnson, offensive coordinator, Lions
His work with Jared Goff has not gone unnoticed throughout the NFL. Johnson will be a first-call interview candidate whom teams have already begun to do background work on.
• Jonathan Gannon, defensive coordinator, Eagles
The Eagles’ defense is a top-five unit, despite some injury turnover. Gannon, 39, has drawn high praise from head coach Nick Sirianni and was interviewed by the Texans for their vacancy last year.
• Brian Callahan, offensive coordinator, Bengals
Having Joe Burrow doesn’t hurt, but Callahan, the son of long-time NFL head coach Bill Callahan, has already interviewed for head coaching vacancies. A second consecutive trip to the playoffs should cement his candidacy in 2023.
• Lou Anarumo, defensive coordinator, Bengals
We expanded on Anarumo’s skill set in our more exhaustive list from September. Once again, he has produced a top-10 defense that was pieced together expertly through a process in which he had major input. He would be a great CEO.
• Frank Reich, former head coach, Colts
Reich’s firing was one of the most puzzling coaching decisions we’ve seen in recent years. He has a winning record as a head coach, was hugely responsible for the Eagles’ Super Bowl run as an offensive coordinator and could come in and manage personnel effectively from Day 1.
• Dan Quinn, defensive coordinator, Cowboys
Quinn, who reached Super Bowl LI during his six years coaching the Falcons, interviewed for a half-dozen jobs last year. With experience remaining a premium for teams afraid of lobbing a ton of money at an unknown entity, I could see him making the rounds again this year.
Moore’s work with Prescott has made him a notable candidate for a few years now.
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• Kellen Moore, offensive coordinator, Cowboys
Moore, 34, helped pilot the Cowboys through a murky stretch without Prescott. This year, their offense has been punishing, with Ezekiel Elliott finding his old form, CeeDee Lamb emerging as a star and Tony Pollard becoming one of the most devastating change-of-pace backs in the NFL.
• Mike Kafka, offensive coordinator, Giants
Don’t let Kafka fool you: The offensive numbers are pedestrian, but he is calling games to win, not to dazzle. There’s a difference. I would rather a coach be more concerned about victories than style points, and Kafka is getting the best out of a very middle-of-the-pack unit.
• Don “Wink” Martindale, defensive coordinator, Giants
Martindale has been helping the Giants win games with a slew of practice squad players. This defense was teardown-bad upon his arrival. But with the ascension of Kayvon Thibodeaux, it is beginning to look like a legitimate pass defense, currently ranked among the top 15. Martindale could have a galvanizing impact on an organization. The longtime Ravens DC is well-studied on the intricacies of team building.
• Jim Harbaugh, head coach, Michigan
He has a small buyout and, for the second consecutive year, has the Wolverines in the College Football Playoff. He has done all he can at the NCAA level. Next on his list may be avenging a Super Bowl XLVII loss during his four years coaching the 49ers.
• Patrick Graham, defensive coordinator, Raiders
The Raiders have not lived up to expectations this year, but Graham, who has interviewed for NFL vacancies in the past, remains a candidate worth looking into. The Raiders currently have the third-best rush defense in terms of opposing EPA per play in the NFL.
• Frank Smith, offensive coordinator, Dolphins
Smith is a right-hand man of Mike McDaniel, who has quickly and wholly changed the way the NFL thinks of the head coaching position. Having a dominant scheme doesn’t hurt. Smith sees the game similarly and possesses the emotional intelligence to lead a room.
• Leslie Frazier, defensive coordinator, Bills
The Bills’ defensive coordinator is due for another shot. Frazier, 63, has either been a head coach (for the Vikings from 2010–13), high-level assistant or play calling coordinator since 2007. If you have a mess, he might be the guy who can clean it up.
• Jerod Mayo, defensive coordinator, Patriots
Mayo is an obvious candidate to succeed Bill Belichick if and when that moment comes. He also interviewed for head coaching jobs last year, and with Nick Caserio in Houston, there could be at least one opening where someone with deep Patriots ties is making the hire.
• Byron Leftwich, offensive coordinator, Buccaneers
I don’t think a down year disqualifies Leftwich, who was a top candidate just last year. While it is difficult to assess anyone inside the Brady cinematic universe, Leftwich has a library of experience as an NFL quarterback and play caller, which are some of the most valuable commodities on the market.
