2024 NFL Playoff Picture, Week 13: Chiefs, Lions, Bills Control Division Races

Pittsburgh is in command of the AFC North after Russell Wilson's big day against Cincinnati, while Detroit, Philadelphia and Minnesota are all battling for home-field advantage in the NFC.
Wilson threw for 414 yards and three touchdowns in the Steelers' win over the Bengals on Sunday.
Wilson threw for 414 yards and three touchdowns in the Steelers' win over the Bengals on Sunday. / Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images

Smart people around the NFL will tell you the regular season starts on Thanksgiving.

At that point, there’s no more trying to figure out what works and what doesn’t. It’s time to accentuate the positive attributes, and minimize the negative.

Well, we’re rolling through Week 13 and the playoff picture is heating up while the weather outside is cooling off. 

With that in mind, let’s look at how things stand as the holiday weekend concludes, with everything below updated up to the minute.

Additionally, all playoff probabilities are courtesy of The Athletic’s model.

AFC: WHO’S IN

No. 1: Kansas City Chiefs

Record: 11–1, first place, AFC West

Remaining opponents over .500: 4

Playoff probability: 100%

With its win on Friday, Kansas City becomes the first team to clinch a playoff berth and can wrap up the AFC West with a win over the Los Angeles Chargers next Sunday night.


No. 2: Buffalo Bills

Record: 10–2, first place, AFC East

Remaining opponents over .500: 1

Playoff probability: 100%

The Bills hammered the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday night and clinched the AFC East. Now, Buffalo will head west to play the Los Angeles Rams before taking on the Lions in Detroit.


No. 3: Pittsburgh Steelers

Record: 9–3, first place, AFC North

Remaining opponents over .500: 3

Playoff probability: 98%

The Steelers gained over 500 yards, threw for more than 400 yards and scored 44 points on the woebegone Cincinnati Bengals, who can prepare for a long winter’s nap.


No. 4: Houston Texans

Record: 8–5, first place, AFC South

Remaining opponents over .500: 2

Playoff probability: 97%

The Texans took on the woeful, two-win Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday and needed to hold on late despite Trevor Lawrence leaving in the first half with a concussion. Still, Houston won and heads into the bye week in great shape.

No. 5: Los Angeles Chargers

Remaining opponents over .500: 4

Record: 8–4, second place, AFC West

Playoff probability: 93%

Led by their defense, the Chargers beat the Atlanta Falcons despite playing on the East Coast on a short week. Los Angeles intercepted Kirk Cousins four times, including a pick-six for the game-winning score.


No. 6: Baltimore Ravens

Record: 8–5, second place, AFC North

Remaining opponents over .500: 4

Playoff probability: 97%

Playing at home on a short week, the Ravens couldn’t beat the Philadelphia Eagles, who were powered by another 100-yard game by Saquon Barkley. Baltimore now trails the Steelers by 1.5 games in the AFC North.



No. 7: Denver Broncos

Record: 7–5, third place, AFC West

Remaining opponents over .500: 2

Playoff probability: 70%

Denver has won two straight and will be looking for a third on Monday night at home against a feisty Cleveland Browns team led by Jameis Winston.

In the Hunt

Indianapolis Colts (6–7): It took until the final drive of the game, but the Colts beat the New England Patriots to stay in playoff contention.

Miami Dolphins (5–7): The Dolphins couldn’t win their fourth straight to get back to .500, losing in frigid Green Bay against the streaking Green Bay Packers.

Cincinnati Bengals (4–7): The Bengals technically remain in the hunt, but they’re finished after losing to the Steelers. Even winning out likely doesn’t do enough for Cincinnati.

NFC: WHO’S IN

No. 1: Detroit Lions

Record: 11–1, first place, NFC North

Remaining opponents over .500: 3

Playoff probability: 99%

With the Lions beating the Chicago Bears on Thanksgiving, they’ve moved 1 1/2 games ahead of the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC North, and the same distance ahead of the Philadelphia Eagles in the race for home-field advantage.


Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley
The Eagles won their 10th game of the season behind another 100-yard rushing game from Barkley. / Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

No. 2: Philadelphia Eagles

Record: 10–2, first place, NFC East

Remaining opponents over .500: 3

Playoff probability: 99% 

Philadelphia had the marquee game in the late window Sunday, and the Eagles beat the powerful Ravens, holding Baltimore to 19 points while Barkley had another 100-yard day.


No. 3: Seattle Seahawks

Record: 7–5, first place, NFC West

Remaining opponents over .500: 3

Playoff probability: 38%

Seattle’s special teams did everything imaginable to lose to the New York Jets on Sunday, but managed to overcome the odds with Geno Smith throwing for 206 yards and a touchdown.


No. 4: Atlanta Falcons

Record: 6–6, first place, NFC South

Remaining opponents over .500: 3

Playoff probability: 63%

Atlanta came off its bye week and lost to the Chargers, with Cousins throwing four interceptions in a one-score loss. The Falcons are now tied with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers atop the NFC South. 


No. 5: Minnesota Vikings

Record: 10–2, second place, NFC North

Remaining opponents over .500: 5

Playoff probability: 99%

Minnesota is cruising behind Sam Darnold, Kevin O’Connell and Brian Flores. The Vikings won another game, this time in comeback fashion over the Cardinals in the final minutes.

No. 6: Green Bay Packers

Record: 9–3, third place, NFC North

Remaining opponents over .500: 3

Playoff probability: 97%

The Packers are a near lock to make the postseason. The question is whether they can track down the Lions in the NFC North after beating the warm-weather Dolphins on a cold Thanksgiving night.


No. 7: Washington Commanders

Record: 8–5, second place, NFC East

Remaining opponents over .500: 2

Playoff probability: 72%

Washington was reeling a bit after three consecutive losses, but the Commanders are still in good position after pounding the Tennessee Titans on Sunday.

In the hunt

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6–6): After beating the New York Giants and Carolina Panthers the past two weeks, Tampa Bay is now tied for the NFC South lead.

Arizona Cardinals (6–6): The Cardinals lost their NFC West lead and with it, a playoff spot last week. They’re now a full game behind Seattle after coughing up a 13-point lead in Minnesota.

Los Angeles Rams (6–6): After getting shut out by the Saints in the first half on Sunday, the Rams’ offense came alive late in a 21–14 win that brings them back to .500 ahead of a tough home game against the Bills.


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Matt Verderame
MATT VERDERAME

Matt Verderame is a staff writer for Sports Illustrated covering the NFL. Before joining SI in March 2023, he wrote for wrote for FanSided and Awful Announcing. He hosts The Matt Verderame Show on Patreon and is a member of the Pro Football Writers Association. A proud father of two girls and lover of all Italian food, Verderame is an eternal defender of Rudy, the greatest football movie of all time.