2025 NFL Playoff Picture and Clinching Scenarios for Week 16

The Rams, Seahawks, Eagles, 49ers, Bears and Broncos are already in the playoffs. On Sunday night, the Patriots joined them with a win over the Ravens in M&T Bank Stadium.

In the AFC, the Jaguars, Bills and Chargers can all secure an 18th game if the Colts lose on Monday night at home to the 49ers. Meanwhile, the NFC is more straightforward. The Eagles clinched the NFC East after a win over the Commanders on Saturday night. The Seahawks also clinched a spot after their epic victory over the Rams on Thursday night. The 49ers and Bears got into the playoffs after the Lions lost at home to the Steelers on Sunday.

With all that in mind, let’s look at how the playoff picture stands entering Week 16.

AFC: WHO’S IN

No. 1: Denver Broncos

Record: 12–3 | Opponents left above .500: 1 | Playoff probability: 100%

The Broncos lost at home to Jacksonville, their first home defeat in 13 games. Denver remains the top seed but now has only a one-game lead over the Chargers in the AFC West with the teams playing in Week 18.

No. 2: New England Patriots

Record: 12–3 | Opponents left above .500: 0 | Playoff probability: 100%

The Patriots put themselves into the playoffs for the first time in the post–Bill Belichick era, beating the Ravens 28–24 in Baltimore on Sunday Night Football.

No. 3: Jacksonville Jaguars

Record: 11–4 | Opponents left above .500: 1 | Playoff probability: 98%

Liam Coen’s Jaguars went on the road and beat the Broncos, 34–20, erasing what was a league-best 11-game winning streak. Jacksonville now has a pair of games against AFC South foes in the Colts and Titans to finish the regular season.

No. 4: Pittsburgh Steelers

Record: 9–6 | Opponents left above .500: 0 | Playoff probability: 78%

Pittsburgh went to Detroit and won at the wire after Amon-Ra St. Brown was called for offensive pass interference, negating a Jared Goff touchdown to give the Steelers a 29–24 win.

No. 5: Los Angeles Chargers

Record: 11–4 | Opponents left above .500: 2 | Playoff probability: 99%

The Chargers are on the brink of getting into the playoffs for a second consecutive season after beating the Cowboys 34–17 at AT&T Stadium. Los Angeles has a tough test next week at home against the Texans.

No. 6: Buffalo Bills

Record: 11–4 | Opponents left above .500: 1 | Playoff probability: 99%

Buffalo was in a fight against the reeling Browns on Sunday in Cleveland, but won 23–20. The Bills will be in the playoffs with either a loss by the Texans or the Colts this weekend.

No. 7: Houston Texans

Record: 10–5 | Opponents left above .500: 2 | Playoff probability: 97%

The Texans were the biggest favorite this week, laying 14.5 points at home against the Raiders before squeaking out a 23–21 win. The Texans will now travel to Los Angeles next weekend to take on the Chargers.

NFC: WHO’S IN

No. 1: Seattle Seahawks

Record: 12–3 | Opponents left above .500: 1 | Playoff probability: 100%

The Seahawks won the game of the year on Thursday night, taking down the Rams 38–37 on the strength of an Eric Saubert two-point conversion in overtime. With two games left against the Panthers and 49ers, Seattle has control of the NFC’s top seed.

No. 2: Chicago Bears

Record: 11–4 | Opponents left above .500: 2 | Playoff probability: 97%

Chicago’s unbelievable finish in regulation, and Caleb Williams’s dart to DJ Moore in overtime for a touchdown to beat the Packers on Saturday night, puts Chicago in complete control of the NFC North with two games remaining. Chicago will travel to Santa Clara to take on the 49ers on Sunday Night Football next week and will host the Lions to close out the season in Week 18.

No. 3: Philadelphia Eagles

Record: 10–5 | Opponents left above .500: 1 | Playoff probability: 100%

The Eagles became the first NFC East team to win back-to-back NFC East titles since they won four straight from 2001 to 2004. Philadelphia is assured of hosting at least one home playoff game.

No. 4: Carolina Panthers

Record: 8–7 | Opponents left above .500: 1 | Playoff probability: 43%

The Panthers pulled into first place in the NFC South with a home win over the Buccaneers. Next week, they will host Seattle before facing Tampa Bay on the road in the season finale.

No. 5: Los Angeles Rams

Record: 11–4 | Opponents left above .500: 0 | Playoff probability: 100%

Despite outgaining the Seahawks by 166 yards and being three better in the turnover column, the Rams lost a classic in Seattle. Now, the Rams most likely need to win out and get a loss from Seattle to reclaim the West. However, if the 49ers win out (they will host the Seahawks in Week 18), they would be the NFC’s top seed.

No. 6: San Francisco 49ers

Record: 10–4 | Opponents left above .500: 3 | Playoff probability: 98%

The 49ers will be hoping to make the playoffs despite playing most of the season without Fred Warner, Nick Bosa and Brock Purdy. If they can handle the Colts and 44-year-old quarterback Philip Rivers on Monday night, they’ll do just that.

No. 7: Green Bay Packers

Record: 9-5-1 | Opponents left above .500: 1 | Playoff probability: 82%

Green Bay owned a 10-point lead late in the fourth quarter and was on the verge of overtaking Chicago for first place in the NFC North. And then the unthinkable happened. The Bears tied the game and then won it in overtime. The Packers will host the Ravens next Saturday and then close out the season at Minnesota.