2025 NFL Playoff Picture, Week 15: Who’s In and Who’s Out

Josh Allen and the Bills prevented the Patriots from clinching a playoff spot, while the Chargers eliminated the Chiefs from the postseason.

The Chiefs were eliminated from the playoffs on Sunday and lost Patrick Mahomes for the remainder of the season to a torn ACL. | Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

It’s playoff-clinching time in the NFL, or at least it could be with the right results in Week 15. 

In the AFC, the Broncos punched their postseason ticket on Sunday with a 34–26 win over the Packers. The Patriots could have done so but weren’t able to hold onto a three-score lead against the Bills, losing 35–31 at home. Conversely, the Chiefs were eliminated from playoff contention after their home loss to the Chargers, meaning they’ll miss the playoffs for the first time since 2014.

Meanwhile, the Rams also reached the postseason with a 41–34 win over the Lions at SoFi Stadium on Sunday in the late window. 

With all that established, let’s look at the playoff picture, starting with the AFC.

AFC: WHO’S IN

No. 1: Denver Broncos

Record: 12–2 | Opponents left above .500: 2 | Playoff probability: 100%

The Broncos took care of the Packers on Sunday, giving them the top spot in the AFC. Denver has now locked up a playoff berth and will have home-field advantage in the AFC if it can win two more games, regardless of any other outcomes.

No. 2: New England Patriots

Record: 11–3 | Opponents left above .500: 1 | Playoff probability: 99%

New England fell to the Bills on Sunday after holding a 24–7 lead. Still, the Patriots are leading the AFC East by a game and also have the division record tiebreaker.

No. 3: Jacksonville Jaguars

Record: 10–4 | Opponents left above .500: 2 | Playoff probability: 98%

Jacksonville crushed Brady Cook and the Jets, scoring 48 points. The Jaguars remain in excellent shape for the AFC South title, holding a one-game lead with three games remaining.

No. 4: Pittsburgh Steelers

Record: 8–6 | Opponents left above .500: 2 | Playoff probability: 66%

Pittsburgh eliminated the Dolphins from playoff contention with an impressive victory on Monday night. Up next for the Steelers is a date with the Lions at Ford Field on Sunday.

No. 5: Los Angeles Chargers

Record: 10–4 | Opponents left above .500: 2 | Playoff probability: 94%

The Chiefs were eliminated from playoff contention on Sunday at the hands of the Chargers, who are now a virtual lock to get into the postseason for the second consecutive season.

No. 6: Buffalo Bills

Record: 10–4 | Opponents left above .500: 1 | Playoff probability: 99%

Buffalo rallied to beat the Bengals in Week 14 after trailing by double digits and did it again on Sunday, taking down the Patriots after trailing by 17 points at halftime.

No. 7: Houston Texans

Record: 9–5 | Opponents left above .500: 2 | Playoff probability: 96%

The Texans have won six consecutive games, this week blowing out the Jacoby Brissett-led Cardinals, 40–20, on Sunday.

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Sean McVay's Rams clinched a playoff spot on Sunday. | Rob Schumacher/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

NFC: WHO’S IN

No. 1: Los Angeles Rams

Record: 11–3 | Opponents left above .500: 1 | Playoff probability: 100%

The Rams are the first NFC team to clinch a postseason berth, doing so while beating the Lions behind a 41-point effort. Los Angeles will now play the biggest game of its season on Thursday night in Seattle.

No. 2: Chicago Bears

Record: 10–4 | Opponents left above .500: 4 | Playoff probability: 77%

After losing to the Packers in a tightly contested affair on Sunday, the Bears bounced back in frigid temperatures at home against the lowly Browns.

No. 3: Philadelphia Eagles

Record: 9–5 | Opponents left above .500: 2 | Playoff probability: 95%

Philadelphia snapped its three-game losing streak, beating old friend Kenny Pickett and the Raiders, 31–0. Las Vegas was held under 100 yards for the second time this season.

No. 4: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Record: 7–7 | Opponents left above .500: 2 | Playoff probability: 47%

Despite losing to the Falcons on Thursday night, the Buccaneers have stayed in first place in the NFC South thanks to the Panthers falling in New Orleans to the Saints. The two teams will play on Sunday and twice over the final three weeks.

No. 5: Seattle Seahawks

Record: 11–3 | Opponents left above .500: 4 | Playoff probability: 98%

It took six field goals and almost all 60 minutes, but the Seahawks took care of the pesky Colts and 44-year-old quarterback Philip Rivers. Now, the Seahawks will host the Rams on a short week.

No. 6: San Francisco 49ers

Record: 10–4 | Opponents left above .500: 3 | Playoff probability: 98%

The Niners came out of their bye week and torched the Titans, moving up to the NFC’s sixth seed in while remaining one game back of both the Rams and Seahawks in the NFC West race.

No. 7: Green Bay Packers

Record: 9-4-1 | Opponents left above .500: 1 | Playoff probability: 96%

After beating the Bears to take control of the NFC North last week, the Packers are back in second place after allowing 34 points in a loss to Denver. The bigger concern, however, is the potential loss of Micah Parsons to a non-contact knee injury.

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