Bengal Bets: Top Picks As Joe Burrow's Bengals Face Tom Brady's Buccaneers

Tampa and Cincinnati have been on different sides of the betting equation this season.

Author:
Russ Heltman
Publish date:
Dec 16, 2022 11:19 AM EST

In this story:

CINCINNATI — Bengal Bets returns as Cincinnati travels to face a reeling Tampa Bay Buccaneers team.

Both sides are injured right now, as is Bengal Bets which is on a cold streak as we enter the stretch run. Cincinnati covered once again last week, but Joe Burrow didn't quite hit his rushing total, and Nick Chubb got bottled up to go under his mark.

Three more picks are on deck as Cincinnati tries to stay red-hot against the number (10-1 ATS past 11 games).

Season Record: 17-19 (-4.79 units)

Bengals -3.5 (-110 SI Sportsbook)

If it ain't broke, don't fix it.

Cincinnati is now 10-3 ATS this season (best in NFL) and has been a consistent force since going 0-2. Their only missed cover came on Halloween against Cleveland, and I don't think Tampa is very likely to keep pace here.

Their defense is shredded by injuries, including a new one to key run defender Vita Vea that's likely to sideline him this week. Plus, the Bucs have been just as bad at covering as Cincinnati is good at beating the number.

The Bucs have faced the AFC four times this season and are 0-4 SU and ATS (they’ve lost 5 straight vs. AFC both SU and ATS).
The Bucs are failing to cover the spread by 6.2 PPG this season, the worst ATS margin in the NFL.
Brady and the Bucs are 1-9-1 ATS in their past 11 games, the worst in the league in that span.
Brady is 0-6-1 ATS in his past seven home starts.

Nothing says things are about to turn around for a team that's scored 22 points just twice all season, and that was back on October 2nd in a loss. Even with Cincinnati's defense limping into this one, I still expect them to keep a pass-happy Bucs offense in front of them enough to cover.

O44.5 (+100 SI Sportsbook)

Dec 4, 2022; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) celebrates with teammates after scoring a touchdown against the Kansas City Chiefs in the first half at Paycor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports — Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

Defensive injuries on both sides of the ball will lead to enough points in this game for an over.

With or without Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins, Cincinnati's offense is consistent enough to get near 30 points in this game against a defense ranked 21st in EPA/play since Week 8 and 19th in dropback EPA over that span.

The only big hang-up for this over is the continued insanity from Tampa running the ball. No team is worse on the ground (948 total rushing yards), and recently it's been better—but not good by any means (19th in EPA/rush since Week 8, 20th in success rate). Brady should continue his historic throwing pace in this game.

That could be trouble if Cincinnati has to start two rookies in the secondary.

According to Jay Morrison, Brady when facing two rookie cornerbacks in his career is 116 of 164 (70.7%) for 1,570 yards, 12 TDs, 3 INTs, 9.6 YPA, and a 117.7 passer rating. Mike Hilton and Jalen Davis haven't practiced as of this writing, and Chidobe Awuzie is done for the year, tabbing rookies Cam Taylor-Britt and Dax Hill to start.

Only one of those Brady games came in the last ten years, but it's still a scenario where he thrives. He finds the endzone enough with his arm, and the Bengals' hyper-efficiency on offense continues.

Tom Brady O26.5 Completions (-110 SI Sportsbook)

Aug 14, 2021; Tampa, Florida, USA; Cincinnati Bengals defensive end Joseph Ossai (58) tackles Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) during the first quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports — Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Tampa has run the ball a little bit better in recent weeks, but they should target the injured Cincinnati secondary in this game. Brady has hit this over in 9-of-13 contests thus far in 2022.

The GOAT is hitting a lot more underneath routes this season (t-27th in average depth of target) and is still very accurate (t-9th in on-target rate, 77.1%).

On top of that, Tampa runs the fastest-paced offense in the league, with one play every 25 seconds of clock time. Brady's sustained accuracy, plus a terrible run game has made him the league leader in attempts (579) and completions (381) this season.

Roll with Brady's arm in a game where a clear spot to attack is the Bengals' secondary.

Cincinnati battles the Buccaneers at 4:25 p.m. ET this Sunday. Fans can watch on CBS via fuboTV—start your free trial here.

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