Broncos History Reveals What 0-1 Start Means for Playoff Outlook

Is losing the first game of the season significant? For the Denver Broncos, yes.

The first game of the season has foretold the future in nearly every instance. The Broncos shot themselves in the foot on Monday Night Football when they lost in Seattle.

It was a mistake-filled contest by the visiting team that landed Denver a loss by a single point. When looking at that game, it's easy to point to all the mistakes and say, they are a good team that only needs to fix a few things to get back on the horse. History says different, unfortunately.

Since the NFL/AFL merger in 1970, the Broncos have had a great track record of winning the season opener. The Broncos have won 35 times, lost 16 times, and have tied once. One could say losing the first game of the season is unfamiliar to the franchise.

Starting 1-0 doesn’t necessarily mean a team is headed for the playoffs, but it doesn’t hurt. In those 35 seasons that started with a Week 1 win, the Broncos have gone to the playoffs 19 times or 54% of the time. It's not a reliable forecast of future success.

However, starting 0-1 paints a grimmer picture. Of the 16 seasons Denver lost its opener, the team has only gone on to make three playoff trips, finding 'success' 19% of the time. That doesn’t bode well.

How the Broncos have lost doesn’t matter either because the losses are a mixture of one-score games and blowouts. However, close games were the most frequent.

Fans and analysts alike could have easily said that the Broncos just needed to fix a few mistakes after the loss, and they would be right back in the fray, just as they are saying now. To add insult to injury, only six of those seasons where Denver lost the opener found the team ending the season with a winning record. Obviously, many of those teams were just bad, and this 2022 Broncos team doesn’t look like a bad team.

The problem is that the loss puts the Broncos in the hole in a very tough AFC West. One has to only look at the 1985 Broncos to illustrate why that first-week loss was a deciding factor in the playoff race.

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The Broncos finished that season with an 11-5 record, only to miss the playoffs by one game. Denver finished one game behind the Los Angeles Raiders for the division title and lost the tiebreaker to both the New York Jets and the New England Patriots. Every game is important.

There is a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel. In the three instances when the Broncos made the playoffs after losing the opener, a quarterback had a hand in righting the ship.

In 2000, Brian Griese had the best season of his career. Not only was it the best season of his career, but from a statistical standpoint, it was good enough to be in the 80th percentile of all quarterbacks since 1960 (adjusted for era) on a per-game basis. The Broncos also won six straight in November and December to push them to an 11-5 record and a Wild Card berth.

The next instance showcased another great season by a quarterback. In 2005, Jake Plummer had the best season of his career and limited his interceptions to seven, which was very uncharacteristic. After that opening loss, the Broncos rattled off five straight victories and only lost twice more to finish 13-3. That team ended the season with a home loss in the AFC Championship game.

The final time was in the miraculous 2011 season. Tebow Time. He took over a 1-4 team to lead the Broncos to seven victories and a playoff berth at 8-8.

Now, Tebow was not solely responsible for those victories, in fact, he had a terrible season statically. The defense kept the Broncos in the game until Tebow could work his last-minute magic to sneak out a victory.

The Broncos found a way to win six straight that season. The AFC West was abysmal that year, making a .500 record good enough for the Broncos to win the crown. The Broncos backed into the playoffs by losing the final three games. The division crown is what got Denver in the dance.

Bottom Line

Should Broncos fans be worried by this 0-1 start? Yes, but the Broncos have a quarterback in Russell Wilson who is good enough to right the ship. That bodes well.

The Broncos will need to create a winning streak to make up ground like those past three teams. A win this Sunday against the Houston Texans doesn’t guarantee it will be a good season, but a loss means the ship sinks.

Follow Thomas on Twitter @ThomasHallNFL.

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