Saints Must Fluster Falcons Rookie QB for Week 15 Win

The biggest key to New Orleans winning their rematch with arch rival Atlanta lies in their ability to dominate a rookie quarterback making his first NFL start.

Author:
Bob Rose
Publish date:
Dec 17, 2022 3:07 PM EST

In this story:

New Orleans Saints

After a bye week for both teams, the 4-9 New Orleans Saints host the 5-8 Atlanta Falcons this Sunday. It's a renewal of one of the most underrated rivalries in sports and a rematch of a Week 1 game that the Saints won 27-26.

Atlanta had the advantage for most of that contest, but New Orleans came back from a 16-point fourth quarter deficit to claim the victory. Both teams have a vastly different look than the versions that we saw to open the season.

The Saints haven't had the dominant defense that many expected. They've played far better in recent weeks, however, and rank 11th in total yardage with an average of 328 yards per game given up.

The Falcons have relied on their fourth ranked running attack most of the year. However, they rank a lowly 30th in total offense, averaging just 314.6 yards per outing. They'll also be turning the reigns over to a new quarterback, with rookie third-round choice Desmond Ridder making his first NFL start.

Atlanta ran all over New Orleans in Week One for three quarters before stalling out in the final period. If the Saints manage to stalemate the run this time, how will the Falcons passing attack fare behind their rookie quarterback?

Saints Pass Defense

- 22.8 points per game (17th)

- 203.3 passing yards/game (10th)

- 16 touchdowns (8th)

- 3 interceptions (32nd)

- 62.7% completion percentage

- 34 sacks/68 QB hits

- 40% 3rd Down Percentage (20th)

Nov 7, 2021; Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan (2) is pressured by New Orleans Saints defensive end Cameron Jordan (94). Mandatory Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports

Much of the defense's struggles early in the year against the pass was due to an inconsistent pass rush. Since Week 3, the Saints are among the NFL's leaders in sacks and the results are reflected in the passing numbers allowed.

Veteran DE Cam Jordan leads a deep crew of disruptive edge rushers. Jordan is second on the team with 5.5 sacks and has 12 pressures. Those numbers are a little down for him, but he's still playing at a Pro Bowl-level.

Fellow ends Marcus Davenport, Carl Granderson, Tanoh Kpassagnon, and Payton Turner have combined for just 7 sacks but have 22 QB hits.

Sep 23, 2018; Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan (2) gets sacked by New Orleans Saints defensive end Cameron Jordan (94). Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

Davenport's production has been particularly disappointing. He has just a half sack, but a team-high 13 pressures. Granderson and Kpassagnon are underrated defenders, while Turner could be back in action after missing a few weeks with an ankle injury.

New Orleans defensive tackles have come on strong in the last three weeks after contributing mostly nothing most of the year. David Onyemata, Shy Tuttle, Kentavius Street, and Malcolm Roach have all had strong moments.

Onyemata has the best numbers of the group with 3.5 sacks and 10 pressures. The unit has combined for 8 sacks and 19 QB hits, with most of that production in the last month.

New Orleans linebackers have been terrific all year amidst the inconsistencies of the rest of the defense. They might get an additional boost if second-year LB Pete Werner returns to the lineup this week. Werner was playing at a Pro Bowl-level before missing the last four games with an ankle injury.

Kaden Elliss has gotten more reps in Werner's absence and has responded with standout play. An aggressive downhill defender, Elliss has a career-high 4.5 sacks and 60 tackles this season. The majority of those numbers have come in the last month. Elliss has also shown much-improved coverage skills, thought to be a weakness in his game.

A player that has few weaknesses is eleventh-year LB Demario Davis, who is having another Pro Bowl caliber year. Davis leads the defense with 6.5 sacks and has added 10 pressures while breaking up five throws and recording an interception. He's a disruptive blitzer, spectacular run defender, and capable of locking down backs or tight ends in man coverage all over the field.

New Orleans Saints cornerback Alontae Taylor (27) breaks up a pass intended for Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Demarcus Robinson (10). Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

Elite CB Marshon Lattimore has missed the last eight weeks with abdominal injuries. The corners have played well without him, despite a late letdown against the Buccaneers because of softer coverage.

Rookie second-round pick Alontae Taylor is emerging as a star. Despite seeing little action until Week 7, he leads the team with seven passes broken up. Taylor is a physical player with fluid coverage skills. He's been heavily targeted, but has given up less than 51% completion rate.

Second-year CB Paulson Adebo has battled through injuries and a sophomore slump, but is still an important part of the secondary. Veterans Bradley Roby and Chris Harris Jr. have also struggled at times, but round out one of the league's better cornerback units.

New Orleans Saints safety Tyrann Mathieu (32) tackles Atlanta Falcons running back Cordarrelle Patterson (84). Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Perhaps the team’s most disappointing position in 2022 has been safety. Tyrann Mathieu and Marcus Maye were highly publicized free-agent additions, but have epitomized the defense's inconsistencies.

Mathieu has two of the Saints paltry three interceptions. However, he's also hurt the unit with poor tackling and awful coverage angles. Maye has been in and out of the lineup because of injuries and has made little difference when on the field.

Falcons Passing Attack

- 22.2 points per game (16th)

- 155.7 passing yards/game (31st)

- 15 touchdowns (19th)

- 9 interceptions (11th)

- 28 sacks

- 40.7% 3rd Down Percentage (12th)

Aug 27, 2022; Atlanta Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder (4) throws a pass against the Jacksonville Jaguars in the second. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Atlanta is moving on from veteran QB Marcus Mariota in favor of rookie third-round choice Desmond Ridder. Mariota had taken every snap this year, completing 61% of his throws. He failed to throw for 200 yards 10 times this season, including each of the last five contests.

Ridder will have limited weapons to throw target. Those options get even thinner with TE Kyle Pitts (28 catches, 356 yards) on injured reserve. Without him, the Falcons are minus a matchup advantage and have gotten nothing from tight ends MyCole Pruitt, Parker Hesse, and Anthony Firkser.

Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Drake London (5) catches a touchdown against the Carolina Panthers. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

Rookie first-round pick WR Drake London has had a promising season. The eighth overall selection and first receiver drafted, London leads the Falcons with 47 catches for 533 yards. He's an imposing target at 6'5" 210-Lbs. with reliable hands and improving route skills.

Fourth-year WR Olamide Zaccheaus is the team’s best deep threat and top target after London. Zaccheaus has a career-high 32 receptions for 478 yards and also threatens defenses with his open field running ability.

Wideouts KhaDarel Hodge, Damiere Byrd, and Frank Darby round out the depth chart. However, they've combined for just 22 catches, but for 438 yards.

Converted wideout Cordarrelle Patterson is Atlanta's most versatile threat out of the backfield. Patterson has not been fully utilized as a receiver, however, and has just 11 receptions for 65 yards. Rookie RB Tyler Allgeier has added 10 catches for 87 yards.

Atlanta's offensive line has been a physical run blocking unit this season, but continues to struggle in pass protection. Mariota's mobility covered up some of that liability - he had 438 rushing yards. Ridder is a good athlete, but lacks Mariota's dynamic ability to escape the rush.

What to Expect

Jan 9, 2022; New Orleans Saints defensive end Cameron Jordan (94) rushes the passer against Atlanta Falcons offensive tackle Kaleb McGary (76). Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Ridder is an upgrade over Mariota in terms of throwing ability. However, he'll be taking his first NFL snaps and will be working with limited weapons. Atlanta will certainly look to lean on their running game, as they have all season.

The best way to fluster an inexperienced quarterback is by taking away their running game, giving them ever-changing coverage looks, and applying consistently heavy pressure. New Orleans has the personnel to do all three.

The Saints will first need to eliminate the Falcons running game from the start, something they were unable to do when these teams last met. Look for New Orleans to play tight coverage on the Atlanta receivers early in the game to prevent Ridder from getting into a rhythm.

Conventional wisdom is to blitz rookie quarterbacks. While Davis and Elliss are extremely effective in that role, I expect the Saints to fake blitzes often then drop into coverage to try and confuse the Atlanta passer.

Nov 7, 2021; Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan (2) is sacked by linebacker Demario Davis (56) and defensive end Cameron Jordan (94). Mandatory Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports

This strategy will be even more effective if the Saints defensive line can get to Ridder without the aid of blitzers. Cam Jordan has had a Hall of Fame career against the Falcons, collecting 23 sacks and 39 QB hits in his last 20 matchups against them.

Jordan and the other defensive ends must take advantage of their matchup advantage against Falcons tackles Jake Matthews and Kaleb McGary while also getting inside pressure. They'll also need to stop Ridder from making plays with his legs if he breaks containment, an area where Mariota hurt them in Week 1.

With a limited offense, a New Orleans victory depends on the success of their defensive performance against their biggest rival.