What History Says About Chiefs' Playoff and Super Bowl Hopes at 5–5

Entering Week 12, Kansas City is .500 and in danger of missing the playoffs.

Kansas City is now 5-5 and in danger of missing the playoffs. / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

The Chiefs have scuffled through multiple regular seasons on their way to five Super Bowl appearances in the last six years, but they have never found themselves this far behind in the AFC West and with as much uncertainty about their playoff prospects. On Sunday, they dropped a game they absolutely needed to have against the Broncos on the road to fall to 5-5 on the year.

If the NFL postseason began Monday, the Chiefs would not be in the field. It's perhaps the most jarring of all the regressions we've seen this season as neither the Ravens or Lions would have a ticket to the dance, either. Coming off yet another AFC championship, it's a situation few thought quarterback Patrick Mahomes would find himself in—even if there have been some cracks in the dynasty before.

Making Kansas City's trek even more difficult is that they've already lost to three teams they have aspirations of supplanting in the playoff field. The Chargers, Bills and Jaguars have already beaten the Chiefs this season and therefore hold the tiebreaker. Currently the Texans have the tiebreaker over K.C. as well by virtue of a better record in conference, though those teams will play in a few weeks.

And history is simply not on their side.

Per ESPN: Entering this season, 989 teams in the Super Bowl era had started 5-5 or worse through 10 games. Just 89 of those teams (9%) went on to make the postseason, and only two made the Super Bowl. The lone team to win the Super Bowl was the 2001 Patriots.

So for Mahomes to pull this off, all he needs to do is walk in the footsteps of the quarterback he's chasing for the greatest of all-time mantle, Tom Brady.

Chiefs’ remaining schedule

The good news for Kansas City is it does not have a remaining schedule that's impossible to negotiate. Their future opponents carry a .507 combined winning percentage into Monday, making it the 12th-most difficult road in the NFL. Also in their favor is head-to-head opportunities against the Texans and Chargers, and perhaps the Christmas Day matchup against the Broncos could be meaningful if those teams head in opposite directions.

Date	Opponent
Nov. 23	vs. Colts
Nov. 27	at Cowboys
Dec. 7	vs. Texans
Dec. 14	vs. Chargers
Dec. 21	at Titans
Dec. 25	vs. Broncos
Jan. 1 or 2	at Raiders

Current AFC playoff possibilities

Here's are the current playoff probabilities for each AFC team headed into Week 12, per NFL.com.

Team	% Chance to Make Playoffs
Broncos	99%
Patriots	98%
Colts	90%
Steelers	39%
Bills	92%
Chargers	60%
Jaguars	64%
Texans	33%
Chiefs	51%
Ravens	77%

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