La Liga preview: Can Real Madrid or Athletic Bilbao overtake Barcelona?

As we head into the 2015-16 La Liga season, SI's Jonathan Wilson breaks down which team will battle Barcelona for supremacy. Can Athletic Bilbao continue to surprise? Does Real Madrid have the team chemistry needed to stay alive in the competitive Spanish league?

Author:
Jonathan Wilson
Publish date:
Aug 20, 2015

On the face of it, the Spanish Super Cup suggested this season might be different. Barcelona, who won the treble of league, Copa del Rey and Champions League last season, was beaten 4–0 in the first leg by Athletic Bilbao and, back at the Camp Nou, managed only a 1–1 as it attempted the impossible task of overturning that deficit. Is Barça in crisis, could Athletic mount a serious challenge, is this the year when Spain becomes more than a two and a half horse race?

Probably not.

While there are doubts about Barça's defensive capacity, its defeat in the first leg was largely the result of scheduling issues, the farcical situation that saw it play in the European Super Cup against Sevilla in Tbilisi last Tuesday night, getting back to Spain at 8 a.m. on Wednesday morning and having to play in the Spanish Super Cup on Friday night. Neymar had mumps and other key players—Sergio Busquets, Andres Iniesta, Ivan Rakitic and Gerard Pique—were left on the bench. Barça fell behind to a preposterous goal scored from the halfway line by Mikel San Jose, but then looked comfortable when it suddenly collapsed, AritzAduriz scoring a hat-trick in 14 minutes. To suggest there was something freakish about the scoreline is not to diminish Athletic’s achievement, but to think that Barcelona is as vulnerable as 4–0 suggests would be misguided.

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Rather it begins the season as favorite to win the league again, the forward line of Lionel Messi, Neymar and Luis Suarez unparalleled in Spain or anywhere else—perhaps ever. That said, with Pedro departed, it is a little short of attacking cover. Aleix Vidal, who was bought principally as a possible long-term replacement for DaniAlves, could attack from the flanks, but nether he nor ArdaTuran, the other big summer signing will be available until January because of Barcelona’s transfer ban. Turan, should ease the burden on Iniesta, who is 31 and perhaps beginning to slow down.

la-liga-preview-barcelona-madrid-athletic-bilbao-lionel-messi-cristiano-ronaldo-630.jpg — Albert Llop/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

The more immediate concern for Barça, though, is the defense. It wasn’t only against Athletic that it looked leaky. 4–1 up against Sevilla in Tbilisi, it was pegged back to 4–4 and won only in extra-time—the winner coming from Pedro, a final reminder of his usefulness as a Plan B. Perhaps it was just early-season teething, but there is clearly work to be done. Still, with the addition of Arda Turan and Aleix, this Barça squad probably has even more depth than last year.

Real Madrid, meanwhile, start with the familiar background rumblings of discontent. This is the job Rafa Benitez always wanted, but he arrives amid widespread skepticism and with the politicking that so often destabilizes the club even more virulent than usual. Gareth Bale, it seems, will take a central role this season, although whether that’s because it’s the best position for him or to settle presidential demands that his record signing is more prominent is unclear.

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The tactical issue of how to fit so many stars into the same side: Cristiano Ronaldo, James Rodriguez, Isco, KarimBenzema, Luka Modric, Toni Kroos, Casemiro, AsierIllaramendi, Jese and the new signing Mateo Kovacic are an impossible constellation. Even with some players operating out of position, some are going to be left out, and that is never good for morale. The irony is that, in Benitez, Madrid has appointed a manager who is tactically meticulous and guilty at times of control freakery—he won’t just leave the players to get on with it. That will almost certainly at some point lead to friction—and video has already leaked out of Ronaldo abusing Benitez after he ruled out a goal he’d scored in a training game.

Those potential weaknesses perhaps create an opportunity for Atletico, which looks far more balanced than it was last season. The return of Filipe Luis solves the left-back problem, while Jackson Martinez adds pace to the forward line. The loss of ArdaTuran, though, will hurt—not just for his ability, but for what his move signifies about the economic realities of Spanish football.

Those realities make it hard to be optimistic about the chances of Sevilla, despite its superb performances in the Europa League over the past two seasons. YevhenKonoplyanka is perhaps the most exciting of their nine signings, but the loss of Carlos Bacca and Aleix Vidal means that the season begins in flux.

Valencia and Real Sociedad—perhaps even Athletic—have the capacity to mount a challenge for Champions League qualification if they can find an early rhythm and stay relatively free of injuries, but the thought of them mounting a title challenge is laughable. In terms of the title, this season is about whether Barça can retain the hunger and form of last season, what happens with Benitez at Madrid and, perhaps, whether a reinvigorated Atletico can take advantage of any slips. But really, this looks like Barça's to lose.

GALLERY: The best tifos from around the world

Best soccer tifos from around the world

Emrah Yorulmaz/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

Galatasaray fans display a sensational "Rocky" tifo ahead of their clash against rival Fenerbahce. It didn't inspire a victory, though. The Turkish rivals played to a 0-0 draw.

Borussia Dortmund fans channel their 1963 cup triumph over Benfica ahead of the teams' second leg in the Champions League round of 16 at Signal Iduna Park.

Hapoel Be'er Sheva fans turn to Moses for tifo inspiration, with his splitting the Red Sea illustrating how "impossible is nothing" in their Europa League series against Besiktas.

Fans of Tunisia's Club Africain display this pointed tifo at a friendly against PSG, whose Qatari owners have pumped millions and millions into the club.

U.S. fans in Columbus, Ohio, make a "One Nation, One Team" statement ahead of the USMNT's World Cup qualifying match against Mexico on November 11, 2016.

Germany fans display their heart for the team colors ahead of a World Cup qualifier against Czech Republic in October 2016.

Italy fans spell out their support for the Azzurri ahead of a massive World Cup qualifier vs. Spain in October 2018.

Iceland fans keep up their world-famous passion for the national team during a World Cup qualifier against Turkey in October 2016.

Fans in the United Arab Emirates set their sights on reaching the 2018 World Cup in Russia during a qualifying match vs. Australia in September 2016.

Colombia fans send a massive jersey around the stadium during a World Cup qualifier vs. Venezuela in September 2016.

Seattle Sounders fans turn to Game Of Thrones for inspiration in a game against the Cascadia rival Vancouver Whitecaps in September 2016.

Djurgardens fans go all out in Sweden for a match against AIK in September 2016.

Zulte Waregem fans prepare Kortrijk for the absolute worst in this Belgian top-flight match in September 2016.

Seattle Sounders fans turn their pop culture reference to Poltergeist in March 2016 ahead of the season home opener against Sporting Kansas City.

The Timbers Army doubles down on their Eastbound and Down theme, adding another wrinkle during the club's MLS Western Conference final first leg vs. FC Dallas on November 22, 2015 at Providence Park.

Fans make a French flag tifo at Wembley Stadium during the singing of Le Marseillaise ahead of England's friendly vs. France, which took place days after the terrorist attacks in Paris.

The Timbers Army referenced Eastbound & Down's Kenny Powers with their "Cup Bound and Down" tifo for the Portland Timbers' MLS playoff elimination game against Sporting Kansas City on October 29, 2015.

Lars Ronbog/FrontZoneSport via Getty Images

Brondby IF fans display a gladiator holding up a lion's head during the team's Danish Alka Superliga match against FC Copenhagen, whose logo is a lion's head, on September 27, 2015.

New England Revolution fans equate Jermaine Jones to Indiana Jones on their quest to capture the 2015 MLS Cup on September 26, 2015.

New England Revolution fans display a Lion King theme in honor of Orlando City FC's first visit to Gillette Stadium on September 5, 2015.

Red Bulls fans take a shot at NYCFC's two summer arrivals, 37-year-old Frank Lampard and 36-year-old Andrea Pirlo, ahead of their third MLS meeting of 2015.

Alexander Hassenstein/Bongarts/Getty Images

Germany fans in Cologne salute their World Cup champions ahead of a friendly against the United States in June, 2015.

Real Madrid fans went all out prior to the second leg of the 2014-15 Champions League semifinal vs. Juventus.

Lazio fans display a stunning eagle tifo ahead of the Rome derby against AS Roma in their penultimate Serie A match of the 2014-15 season.

Barcelona fans bid farewell to veteran midfielder Xavi with this banner at his last league game at Camp Nou before he departs for Qatari club Al Sadd.

Fans at Anfield pay tribute to Steven Gerrard in his final home match as a Liverpool player in May 2015.

Juventus fans state their case to beat Real Madrid in the 2014-15 Champions League semifinals and reach the final in Berlin.

Fans at Benfica's Estadio da Luz remind rival Porto who the Primeira Liga reigning champion is during an April 2015 match in Portugal.

New York Red Bulls fans send a pointed message to their NYCFC counterparts prior to the teams' first MLS meeting in May, 2015.

Inter Milan's Curva Nord announces its presence ahead of the April 2015 Derby della Madonnina–the annual clashes between city rivals Inter and AC Milan.

Bayern Munich fans implore their club to (translated) "Never give up" in the Champions League quarterfinal second leg vs. Porto. Bayern then turned a 3-1 first-leg deficit into a 7-4 aggregate win and a place in the semifinals.

dortmund-tifo-juventus — Patrik Stollarz/AFP/Getty Images

Dortmund fans commemorate their 1997 Champions League trophy in the club's clash vs. Juventus–the opponent on the wrong side of that title bout.

Portland Timbers fans speak out against homophobia with this tifo in a 2013 match against Chivas USA

Atletico's supporters display a banner reading "Atleti crushes" before the Spanish league match between Atletico Madrid and FC Barcelona at the Vicente Calderon stadium in Madrid,

Borussia Dortmund fans put on a remarkable display ahead of a UEFA Champions League quarterfinal second leg match.

Brondby IF fans unveil a tifo ahead of a match in Denmark against Randers FC.

FC Barcelona fans display a huge banner in memory of former head coach Tito Vilanova.

Burak Akbulut/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

Galatasaray fans support their team during the UEFA Champions League Group D match between Borussia Dortmund and Galatasaray at the Turk Telekom Arena in Istanbul.

The American Outlaws unveil a huge tifo ahead of a 2014 World Cup send-off match between the USA and Turkey at Red Bull Arena in Harrison, N.J.

Marseille's supporters use paper sheets to create an "OM" (Olympique de Marseille) tifo at the beginning of the French L1 football match between Marseille and Genoble.

Seattle Sounders fans display their tifo that shows coach Sigi Schmid playing cards and holding a Royal Flush before a match against the Portland Timbers.

Panathinaikos Athens fans display a banner during the UEFA Europa League match against Dynamo Moscow.

Fans of the Saudi Al-Hilal team celebrate after the scoring of a goal against Uzbekistan's Bunyodkor.

Seattle Sounders fans unveil a tifo inspired from the “Build a Bonfire” chant, featuring Sounder players holding torches on horseback ahead of a game against the Portland Timbers.

Jan-Philipp Burmann/City-Press via Getty images

Fans of Hertha BSC before the Bundesliga match between Hertha BSC and Werder Bremen in Berlin.

Sporting-KC-tifo-rsl — Andy Mead/YCJ/Icon SMI

Sporting Kansas City fans channel their inner Mario ahead of the 2013 MLS Cup final vs. Real Salt Lake.

Brondby IF fans.

barcelona-tifo — Manuel Blondeau/AOP Press/DPPI/Icon Sportswire

Thousands of Barcelona fans hold up cards to spell out "Barca! Orgull," which translates to "Barcelona pride" ahead of a Champions League clash with Bayern Munich at Camp Nou.

Fans raise a tifo celebrating “Community, Club and Country” ahead of a CONCACAF Gold Cup match between the USA and Belize in Portland, Oregon.

Vitesse fans unfurl a massive Eagle banner at the Dutch Eredivisie match against Ajax at the GelreDome.

valencia-tifo — Manuel Queimadelos Alonso/Getty Images

Valencia fans drape a banner featuring a king for a Copa del Rey ("The King's Cup) match against Atletico Madrid.

juventus-tifo — Jonathan Moscrop/LaPresse/Icon Sportswire

Juventus fans make a statement in Turin in a match vs. Inter Milan.

dortmund-tifo — Matthias Hangst/Getty Images

Dortmund fans put on another strong display at a Bundesliga match against Mainz 05.

germany-tifo — John MacDougall/AFP/Getty Images

German fans boast the newest star earned by the national team, symbolizing its 2014 World Cup triumph, at a Euro 2016 qualifying match in Dortmund.

real-madrid-tifo — Pedro Castillo/Real Madrid/Getty Images

Real Madrid fans make a point to display the club's 10 European championships ahead of the October 2014 clash against rival Barcelona at the Bernabeu.

san-jose-earthquakes-tifo — John Hefti/Icon SMI

San Jose Earthquakes fans unleash a massive tifo to mark the opening of Avaya Stadium, MLS's newest soccer-specific venue, in March 2015.

barcelona-fans-tifo — Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

Barcelona fans show all who the real 12th man is ahead of the March 2015 Clásico vs. Real Madrid.

Ivan Villa/STR/LatinContent/Getty Images

Ahead of a clash with Mexican foe Monterrey, Tigres players are treated by this message by its fervent supporters.

Steven-Defour-Tifo — Yorick Jansens/AFP/Getty Images

Standard Liege fans have a pointed message for Steven Defour, who departed the club for Belgian rival Anderlecht.

orlando-city-tifo — Alex Menendez/Getty Images

Orlando City fans mark their club's inaugural MLS game vs. fellow expansion side New York City FC with a statement that the Lions' "reign begins now."