Spooky Season: Why the Stats Suggest the End Could Be Nigh for a PL Manager This Halloween
Halloween is very nearly upon us, and some new data suggests that it should be a particularly spooky one for Premier League managers. If the stats are to be believed, then someone's got to go on October 31st.
That's according to the good folk at bet-bonus-codes.co.uk, who have done some research and discovered that over the last ten years, the average date for the first Premier League managerial sacking comes 80 days in - and this year, that lands on Halloween.
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Statistically, Crystal Palace's Roy Hodgson looks like a surprise front-runner to be in for a fright on Wednesday. On average, the first team to sack their manager sits in 15th place with a goal difference of -6 - a record eerily replicated by Hodgson's Palace going into this weekend.
Chelsea lead the way as far as being the first team to get rid of their manager goes. Since the start of the Premier League era, they've been the first to get rid four times - one more than anyone else.
With Maurizio Sarri's Blues flying high, however, it looks much more likely to be a former Chelsea boss who gets the bullet first this spooky season. Jose Mourinho has reason to be concerned after recent reports that the United board are losing faith in the Special One.
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Although his record of 1.56 points per game on average this season is far from the worst in the league, he was relieved of his duties by Chelsea in 2007 with a much more favourable 1.83 point average. United have never been first to pull the trigger, but that record is skewed by the freakish anomaly of Sir Alex Ferguson's managerial abilities.
As far as records this season go, it's Rafa Benitez who might find himself in need of some trick or treat generosity from the Newcastle board. Although the feeling among Newcastle fans is that Mike Ashley is to blame, Benitez' winless record of 0.3 points per game is worse than seven of the last ten managers to lose their job first. The only ones with less favourable records - Frank De Boer, Paulo Di Canio and Juande Ramos - failed to win a single game.
With a number of important fixtures on the card this weekend, managers will need to be extra careful if the statistics are to be believed. Seven of the 26 managers to lose their job first in the Premier League era went in October - more than in any other month - so even if it doesn't land directly on the spookiest Wednesday day of the year, any of the gaffers at risk could well be in charge for the final time this weekend.
