By 90Min
February 19, 2019

Liverpool host Bayern Munich at Anfield on Tuesday in the first leg of the Champions League last 16 tie, with the German giant's recent history at this stage of the competition suggesting the Reds will need to be at the very top of their game to have any chance of progressing.

Bayern have the advantage of playing the second leg at home after qualifying for the knockout rounds as a group winner. Earlier this week, Jurgen Klopp claimed Liverpool 'don't care' about the potential disadvantage, but said the fans at Anfield 'push us from 100% to 140%'.

Clive Brunskill/GettyImages

Research from LeoVegas illustrates the size of the task that lies ahead for Liverpool.

For starters, Bayern have faced English opposition three times in the Champions League over the last 10 years and progressed every time. All of those came against Arsenal and.the only game Bayern lost was the 2012/13 second leg, having virtually already put the tie to bed.

Bayern have won 65% of their individual games in this round of the competition since 2009 and have only once failed to make it through to the quarter finals - that was back in 2010/11 when they were knocked out in the round of 16 by then champions Inter courtesy of a late away goal.

Boris Streubel/GettyImages

Picture: Bayern hammered Shakhtar Donetsk 7-0 in Munich in the last 16 in 2015.

They are statistically weaker away from home, though, so Liverpool's chances may well hinge on taking advantage of that in the Anfield leg before heading to Germany next month. It is a small window of opportunity, but Bayern have won 'only' 60% of their last 16 away ties over the last 10 years compared to a 70% win rate at home.

As far as when the goals might come, Liverpool will have to be extra careful and keep their concentration in the closing stages as, since 2009, Bayern have scored 18 of their 63 goals - a disproportionate 30% - at this stage of the competition in the 76th minute and beyond.

That may be particularly key if a patched up Liverpool defence without the suspended Virgil van Dijk has remained strong up until Bayern's most dangerous period. Conceding a late away goal or two could completely undo anything positive that the Reds have otherwise done.

According to the numbers, Bayern's weakest spell in last 16 games has been the 15 minutes immediately after half-time, which accounts for five of the 20 goals they have conceded - or 25%. That could be the opportune moment for Liverpool to pounce.

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HOLE YARDS PAR R1 R2 R3 R4
OUT
HOLE YARDS PAR R1 R2 R3 R4
IN
Eagle (-2)
Birdie (-1)
Bogey (+1)
Double Bogey (+2)