How Can the USMNT Qualify for the 2022 World Cup in Qatar?

With two matches to play in the final window of Concacaf World Cup qualifying, the U.S. men’s national team’s path to Qatar is clear. 

While the USMNT controls its qualifying destiny, there are several scenarios in which the U.S. can qualify in the coming days. The longshot one on Thursday did not come to fruition, with the U.S. needing a win over Mexico, a Panama loss to Honduras and a Costa Rica draw or loss vs. Canada to clinch with two games to spare. None of the three happened, with the U.S. and Mexico drawing 0–0, Panama settling for a home draw against the already-eliminated Catrachos and Costa Rica holding on to edge 10-man Canada 1–0 and slide up to fourth place in the Concacaf table.

In Concacaf, the top three teams qualify for November’s World Cup, while the fourth-place nation will participate in June’s intercontinental playoff against the representative from Oceania. 

So after Thursday’s events, the scenarios get bumped down the road, with the U.S. looking ahead to Sunday’s match against Panama in Orlando, tied on points with Mexico, with both three clear of Costa Rica. If the U.S. beats Panama and Costa Rica fails to win in El Salvador, then the Americans will clinch outright with a game to spare. If the U.S. draws and Costa Rica loses, that will also secure a top-three finish. Given the staggered start times on Sunday, the U.S. will know as it takes to the field against Panama whether Costa Rica has won, drawn or lost.

A U.S. win alone would make things awfully hard on Costa Rica regardless, though. With the U.S. carrying a +7 advantage in goal differential—which is the first tiebreaker—over Los Ticos, even if they were to wind up level on points following a hypothetical Costa Rica win over the U.S. in the qualifying finale in San José, it would take a gargantuan scoring output over the final two games to overtake the Americans.

In short, win on Sunday, and the rest should fall into place.