Severity of Liverpool’s Winless Start Magnified by Premier League’s Fine Margins

Jürgen Klopp’s side has largely played well in two draws, but such is the standard both it and Man City have set in recent years, that the tiniest of slips could prove costly.

Last season, the Premier League champion, Manchester City, dropped 21 points total. The season before, title-winning Man City dropped 28 points, but that felt like a pandemic-related aberration. The season before that, Liverpool dropped 15 points and the season before, City dropped 16. One more before that, City dropped 14 points. This season, after draws at Fulham and home vs. Crystal Palace, Liverpool has already dropped four.

The title race is not over, obviously. It’s mid-August. But given how little margin there is for error at the top of the table based on the standard that Man City and Liverpool have set over the last half decade—twice the title has come down to a single point—a four-point separation at the start is not insignificant. Liverpool plays Arsenal and Chelsea away among its next eight league games, meaning there’s a legitimate possibility that it could go into the fixture at home against Man City on Oct. 16 needing to win to feel in the hunt, even as early as it will still be. Liverpool has not played particularly badly so far at all, but were it to lose at Manchester United next Monday, it would fall behind Erik ten Hag’s much-mocked side in the table.

“Points-wise, draws are defeats now,” ex-Liverpool defender and current Sky Sports pundit Jamie Carragher said Monday. “We know the bar has been raised so high now [by] Manchester City and Liverpool the last few years. To give Manchester City a four-point start with 36 games to go—yes there’s a long way to go, Liverpool are by no means out of anything—but [it’s] giving yourself a tough thing to actually catch one of the greatest teams we’ve ever seen in the Premier League.”

Salah and Liverpool have opened the season with consecutive draws.

Peter Byrne/PA Images/Imago Images

It’s very early days, too early to be drawing any sort of definitive conclusion, but only West Ham and Palace have scored fewer goals relative to their expected goals so far this season (and only United has a lower points tally relative to its xPTS). Without being anywhere near its best, had Liverpool won those first two games, it would not have seemed at all outrageous.

Fulham was as sparky as a newly promoted club ought to be in its first home game back in the top flight. Given how the game went, how rattled Liverpool seemed by the Fulham press, there was even a sense that Jürgen Klopp’s side had gotten away with a point. Yet Liverpool hit the woodwork twice (and Fulham once) and won the xG 2.34–1.27.

Against Palace, Liverpool was almost entirely dominant until Wilfried Zaha, with an astonishing finish, put Palace ahead with its first attack. Had Darwin Núñez not foolishly headbutted Joachim Andersen and been sent off, perhaps Liverpool would have gotten more than the single goal it managed in the second half (a gorgeous Luis Díaz effort when it had already been reduced to 10 men). Liverpool still won the xG 2.24–1.64. (And that’s an instance in which the xG doesn’t tell the full story: Liverpool had had 10 shots before Palace’s first and three of Palace’s seven shots came in the final 12 minutes as Liverpool chased the game. Had Liverpool gotten the first goal, the game would almost certainly have played out far more comfortably for the hosts.)

Particularly given how impressive Liverpool was in beating City in in the Community Shield, it would be very hard to argue there is a major issue at the club, although it’s inevitable that when chances are missed the absence of Sadio Mané is felt. It’s natural that a new front three will take time to settle. Although all three of what appears to be the first-choice forward line have now scored this season (Diogo Jota has been out injured), the slickness of the intermovement achieved by the Mohamed Salah–Roberto Firmino–Mané front line at its peak will take time to be replicated, if it ever is.

Núñez walks by Klopp after being sent off vs. Crystal Palace.

Peter Byrne/PA Images/Imago Images

Before his red card, the first for violent conduct received by a Liverpool player under Klopp, Núñez had impressed, scoring one and forcing a penalty in the Community Shield and then getting a goal and an assist against Fulham, both times after coming off the bench. Although the red card, rightly, overshadows everything else, he had managed five shots in the 57 minutes he was on the pitch, hitting the post. Although he has at least a three-game ban to serve, the signs indicate he will be a productive player.

The bigger issue may be the ongoing injury problems besetting Thiago Alcântara. His importance to Liverpool in terms of the precision he offers in midfield was obvious in the Champions League last season when Klopp fielded him in the final despite his obvious lack of fitness. He offers both the capacity to control games and the guile to open up opposing defenses. Without him Liverpool can feel a little wild.

And there was perhaps an issue on Monday in the injuries to Joël Matip and Ibrahima Konaté, which meant Nat Phillips playing at center back. He had a fine season on loan at Bournemouth last year, but his body shape as Palace countered was what allowed Zaha to remain onside, getting a run on him for the goal Liverpool conceded. It’s not a major issue, and most times Liverpool would have gotten away with it, but the tiniest slip can be costly.

And that’s the reality of the modern Premier League. Liverpool has started the season reasonably well, but a slight lack of ruthlessness can lead to dropped points—and no potential champion can allow too many of them.

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