2026 World Cup Group Stage Mock Draw 3.0: European Giants Get Luckier Than Mexico, USMNT

The group stage draw a few months out is one of the key moments of any World Cup.

The teams competing in the 2026 World Cup will soon learn their fate. / FABRICE COFFRINI/Getty Images

The 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage draw, for real, is almost upon us, but that doesn’t mean we can’t still have some fun simulating what might happen when those balls are pulled out at Washington D.C.’s Kennedy Center on Friday, 12 p.m. ET (9 a.m. PT / 5 p.m. GMT).

This a defining moment in the World Cup story ahead of next summer in North America, the first triple-hosted tournament in the competition’s 95-year history, because it could pave the way for teams to either thrive or flourish straight off the bat.

A favorable group draw could equate to strong early momentum that accelerates into the knockout rounds. Equally, getting the proverbial “Group of Death”—there’s usually at least one—might mean going home earlier than anyone expected.

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How the 2026 World Cup Group Stage Draw Works

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The process is relatively straightforward.

The 48 teams (of which 42 are currently known and the remaining six will be determined by various playoffs in March 2026), are split into four seeded pots. It will be one team per pot across 12 groups.

Pot 1 contains each of the three co-hosts, who have already been preassigned a group—Mexico (A), Canada (B), United States (D)—and the nine highest-ranked qualifiers according to FIFA’s rankings. Those same standings also define who goes into Pot 2, 3 and 4, with the remaining unknown six qualifiers via the playoffs routes going into Pot 4, regardless of their FIFA ranking.

There shall be one or two European nations in each group, and no more than one from any of FIFA’s five other continental confederations. FIFA has also determined that, in the interest of “competitive balance”, the four top-ranked teams overall—Spain, Argentina, France, England—will be kept completely separate so that, if they win their groups, they cannot meet until at least the semifinals.

In each group, the top two teams after three matches will automatically qualify for the round of 32. The eight best third-placed countries will also go through, meaning that even finishing third still only means a 33% chance of going home at the end of the opening phase.

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Simulated 2026 World Cup Group Stage Draw

The first stage of the simulation is to determine who the remaining six qualifiers are. In this particular mock draw run by Sports Illustrated, Italy, Ukraine, Kosovo and Denmark won the UEFA playoffs, while DR Congo and Iraq took the other places via the Inter-Confederation playoff route.

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Group A

Mexico have hosting duties for the third time. / Omar Vega/Getty Images

In this scenario, Mexico, who will open the World Cup at the iconic Estadio Azteca on June 11, have not been given an easy ride. Italy may have struggled in qualifying but would be favorites to top the standings here, while Ivory Coast and South Korea will both fancy securing a knockout berth.

Team	Confederation
Mexico	Concacaf
Ivory Coast	CAF
South Korea	AFC
Italy*	UEFA

*simulated playoff winner

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Group B

For Canada in Group B, the prospect of securing a first ever World Cup win after losing every game they played in both 1986 and 2022 is very real. If we assume Croatia top the group, Canada will be battling with Paraguay for the second automatic place in the next stage.

Team	Confederation
Canada	Concacaf
Jordan	AFC
Paraguay	CONMEBOL
Croatia	UEFA

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Group C

Once a safe bet to reach the semifinals at pretty much every World Cup, Germany have astonishingly fallen at the group in each of their last two appearances in 2018 and 2022. This will be an opportunity to reset and get back on track, but potential banana skins still lurk in every fixture.

Team	Confederation
Germany	UEFA
Japan	AFC
New Zealand	OFC
South Africa	CAF

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Group D

The United States are preassigned to Group D. / Robin Alam/ISI Photos/Getty Images

This could be the toughest group to pick an outright winner from. The United States will hope it is them, but Norway are powered by Erling Haaland and Martin Ødegaard at their first World Cup since 1998, Denmark are a well-drilled team, and Morocco rewrote African history at the World Cup back in 2022 by reaching the semifinals and placing fourth overall.

Team	Confederation
United States	Concacaf
Norway	UEFA
Morocco	CAF
Denmark*	UEFA

*simulated playoff winner

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Group E

Will Harry Kane lead England to glory? / Chris Brunskill/Fantasista/Getty Images

England should comfortably win this simulated iteration of Group E as they search for a first World Cup title in 60 years, but everything else below the Three Lions is wide open. Even a third-place finish and passage into the knockout rounds via that route is not beyond Kosovo with just one good result.

Team	Confederation
England	UEFA
Kosovo*	UEFA
Egypt	CAF
Colombia	CONMEBOL

*simulated playoff winner

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Group F

The golden generation may have faded, left unfulfilled, but Belgium have been handed perhaps the most comfortable group of all that should make reaching the round of 32 a breeze. Equally, that gives Iran, Haiti and Tunisia all a fantastic opportunity to get into the knockouts.

Team	Confederation
Belgium	UEFA
Iran	AFC
Haiti	Concacaf
Tunisia	CAF

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Group G

Cristiano Ronaldo is eligible for every game. / Image Photo Agency/Getty Images

There are plenty of storylines to unpick in a potential Group G featuring Cristiano Ronaldo, not suspended, and Portugal. The 40-year-old is set to go up against his current adopted home, Saudi Arabia, while World Cup minnows Cape Verde was ruled by Portugal until as recently as 1975.

Team	Confederation
Portugal	UEFA
Saudi Arabia	AFC
Uruguay	CONMEBOL
Cape Verde	CAF

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Group H

In their first World Cup, Caribbean island Curaçao are dealt a tough hand, facing France, Scotland and Senegal. It bodes well for the Scots, however, at their first World Cup since 1998, having never previously gone beyond the first round in eight previous attempts.

Team	Confederation
France	UEFA
Curaçao	Concacaf
Scotland	UEFA
Senegal	CAF

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Group I

Assuming Netherlands pull rank and finish top, Australia and Ghana are perhaps the biggest winners here. One or both could land a knockout place thanks to potentially three from a group getting through. Panama, who lost all three games they played in 2018, would have to pull off a shock.

Team	Confederation
Netherlands	UEFA
Australia	AFC
Ghana	CAF
Panama	Concacaf

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Group J

Spain are reigning European champions. / NIKOLAY DOYCHINOV/AFP/Getty Images

Group J is another case of containing one big team—reigning European champions Spain in this instance—and open thereafter. Keep an eye on Ecuador, nurturing a golden generation featuring Moisés Caicedo, Willian Pacho, Piero Hincapié, Kendry Páez, Joel Ordóñez and Pervis Estupiñán.

Team	Confederation
Spain	UEFA
Algeria	CAF
Ecuador	CONMEBOL
Iraq*	AFC

*simulated playoff winner

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Group K

Two first-time qualifiers could make a World Cup to remember here. DR Congo and Uzbekistan have landed a group alongside record champions Brazil. Not only that, with Austria the only other competition, one or both has a chance to go deeper into the tournament.

Team	Confederation
Brazil	CONMEBOL
DR Congo*	CAF
Uzbekistan	AFC
Austria	UEFA

*simulated playoff winner

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Group L

Will it be another World Cup for Lionel Messi? / Marcelo Endelli/Getty Images

For Lionel Messi and Argentina, the defense of their 2022 title begins with group stage fixtures against Switzerland, Ukraine and Qatar. It isn’t a complete walk in the park for the cup holders, but it would be an enormous shock if they fell at this hurdle.

Team	Confederation
Argentina	CONMEBOL
Switzerland	UEFA
Ukraine*	UEFA
Qatar	AFC

*simulated playoff winner

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