2023 Australian Open Women's Seed Reports
Consider the recent Australian Open women’s singles champs:
2022: Ash Barty (retired)
2021/2019: Naomi Osaka (pregnancy absence)
2020: Sofia Kenin: Ranked No. 143
2018: Caroline Wozniacki (retired)
2017/15: Serena Williams (retired)
2016:Angie Kerber (pregnancy absence)
2014: Li Na (retired)
It’s hard to recall a time when there were only two former champions (Victoria Azarenka—a decade ago; and Kenin with a triple-digit ranking...and tennis being tennis, they play each in round one) in the main draw of a major and neither were on anyone’s short list of contenders. Yet, the women’s draw seems fairly…settled. There’s a clear-cut favorite. There’s another player who’s reached the finals of the previous two majors. A No. 3 who just beat the No. 1. Two heavy-hitting contenders who won titles the first week of 2023. Having expressed that hot-take, a player outside the top 50 is now destined to win. Our prognosis….
1. Iga Swiatek: Who else is old enough to remember when any of a handful of male players could emerge from a major as No.1 but the women’s side had a clear-cut favorite? Swiatek may have lost at the United Cup to Jessica Pegula, and might be nursing a slight shoulder injury and may dislike courts this fast….but big picture: she has won two of the last three majors; knows how to win when she's not 100 percent; and is the player to beat until proven otherwise.
2. Ons Jabeur: A finalist at two majors running, can she go one better here? Fair amount of recent news: joined Naomi Osaka’s “Evolve” agency. Joined executive committee of PTPA. Lost in Adelaide to slugging teenager Linda Noskova. But has, well, evolved, into a reliable big-event player.
3. Jessie Pegula: there's so much to like about the highest-ranked American, male or female, at the tournament. Two years ago, Pegula came to Australia outside the top 50. Now, she’s ranked third and is coming off a straight-set takedown of Swiatek. Big opportunity here. And the faster the court, the better.
4. Caroline Garcia: Has played as well as anyone this side of Swiatek over the last six months. The winner of the WTA Finals arrives for 2023 with a new coach and a top-four ranking (and made news last week for, admirably, speaking with candor about her struggles with bulimia.)
5. Aryna Sabalenka: A—dare we say it?—credible pick to win. Underrated tennis story from 2022: remember how Sabalenka’s serve totally deserted her; and she fought through it? Big credit for that. And she already has a title (Adelaide) in 2023. You wish she had more gears and a “throttle back” instinct. But winning 14 sets playing all-gas-no-brakes tennis? We’re starting to believe. More important, so is she.
6. Maria Sakkari: If you like her now, you’ll like her still more after watching “Break Point.” But before Wimbledon we wrote: “This will come across as harsher than intended but she’s become a bit like non-alcoholic beer. Looks and tastes like the real thing…but lacks the desired effect.” Still, unfortunately, holds. Lots of “good tournaments,” but lots of tough losses and only one career title.
- Australian Open Schedule: Coverage, TV Info.
7. Coco Gauff: Tempting to pick her as your 2023 Australian Open winner. She’s been to a major final. She won a tune-up in Auckland in challenging conditions. She took a proper off-season. Her speed and power can compensate for her temperamental forehand. And she’s still only 18. She's in Swiatek’s quarter but otherwise a top contender.
8. Daria Kasatkina: After Swiatek, Kasatkina might have more gears and options than any other player. But it’s hard to win majors with a punchless serve and a general preference for brains-over-brawn tennis. A crafty, versatile, fun-to-watch player who can confound an opponent. But not seven.
9. Veronika Kudermetova: All credit to her for earning the top 10 seeding. Mid-career player (25) who was hovering in that 25-45 ranking range for years, and then made a jump, not with one outlier event but by winning lots of matches. All-time major record is barely .500 (16-14) but that looks to improve.
10. Madison Keys: Outside the top 25 last summer, she’s back in business, winning matches—including going 5-0 in the United Cup—and projecting something close to joy on the court. Still comes loaded with power. Still possesses a fearsome serve. Still only 27.
11. Paula Badosa: After watching her in the Netflix series, it’s so easy to admire her persistence. It’s also hard to forget how much pressure she places on herself.
12.Belinda Bencic: The reigning Olympic champ is 25 now. Played deep into majors but yet to reach a final. Now working with Dimitry Tursunov.
13. Danielle Collins: A finalist last year, her track record in Australia speaks for itself. Can play in heat. Can play on a slick court. Can—and in fact relishes—play when matches tighten.
14. Beatriz Maia Haddad: Brazilian has been so impressive over the last year. And did so without advancing beyond the second round of a major. (Trivia: the last player to beat Naomi Osaka.) Now has a chance to make a dent at a major.
15. Petra Kvitova: Four years ago, she nearly won the event. Now 33, she’s in the “dangerous” category, capable of bringing that power and lefty excellence to bear on a fast court; also capable of losing in round one, as she did last year.
16. Anett Kontveit: At the previous major she was ranked No. 2, which was unduly high. Here she’s No. 16, which scans unduly low. Starts year 0-2, with losses in Adelaide to Zheng and Badosa.
Seeds 17-32
17. Jelena Ostapenko: Fans might chuckle at her hairstyles. Fans may marvel at her unfiltered remarks. But she doesn’t care. An attitude that serves her well on the court.
19. Ekaterina Alexandraova: Perhaps the best player with whom you are not familiar.
20. Barbora Krejcikova: A lot has happened since, but anyone who’s won a major within the last 18 or so months gets mentioned.
22. Elena Rybakina: the reigning Wimbledon champ, strikingly seldom as that is mentioned (and not reflected in her ranking.)
24. Victoria Azarenka: A two-time champ merits mention, though we have hit the ten-year anniversary.
29. Qinwan Zhang: Breakout player of 2022.
30. Karolina Pliskova: Former Week Two player, not in autumn of career.
31. Kaia Kanepi: If only to acknowledge a player who is nearly 40 and still fearsome at majors.
Dark Horses
Bianca Andreescu: 2019, sadly, feels like a long time ago. But still—under the right conditions—so much to like here. Speaking of Canada…
Leylah Fernandez: A fierce competitor, 2021 U.S. Open finalist is healthy—and credit for playing lots of doubles, too.
Ajla Tomjanovic: Another Netflix star. At the last major, she managed the occasion and beat Serena Williams to reach the second week.
Taylor Townsend: Back from maternity leave, looking like she didn’t miss a beat.
Marta Kostyuk: A fine young player and she’ll benefit from Ukraine support.
Linda Noskova: Provided she qualifies.
Garbine Mugurza: Comes in ranked 58 which is…wow. She came within a few games of winning this event in 2020, and, of course, has won two other majors. A player no seed wants to see early. Or, perhaps, ever.
Sonia Kenin: The champ three year ago, is now outside the top 100 and playing on a protected ranking—but coming off an encouraging start to 2023.
Donna Vekic: Jeff Saturday was unavailable, but the Croat veteran made a huge, outside-the-box coaching hire in Pam Shriver.
First round matches to watch
Swiatek v. Niemeier: Niemeier is good. Maybe not beat-the-No.1-off-the-bat-good. But really good.
Marie Bouzkova v. Andreescu: Rough first outing for both.
Badosa v. Catie McNally: Big test/opportunity for Ohioan.
Ostapenko v. Dayana Yastremska: No short of self-regard in this match (which is no way a negative).
Marta Kostyuk v. Amanda Anisimova: The tennis balls are going to pay.
Alize Cornet v. Fernandez: Cornet is still at it.
Upset special
Muguruza d. Mertens (26). Not an upset, you say? Fair enough. What about Zidansek over Jabeur, if Jabeur is nursing a knee injury?
Doubles winners
Krejcikova and Siniakova
Semis
Pegula d. Swiatek
Sabalenka d. surprise (Alexandrova?)
Finals
Sabalenka d. Pegula
