U.S. Open Men’s Seed Report: Will the Carlos Alcaraz–Novak Djokovic Show Continue?
As always, making predictions—especially about the future—is a proceed-at-your-own-risk endeavor. But how do you not forecast a Carlos Alcaraz–Novk Djokovic final at the U.S. Open? One or the other has won each of the last five majors. They are ranked No.1 and No. 2, respectively, and have nearly double the points haul of the players ranked No. 3 and No. 4. Their Wimbledon final was a classic best-of-five classic. Five weeks later, their Cincinnati final was a best-of-three classic.
As for who will win the tournament … well, it’s easy to make a compelling case for both. The Tennis Fates never gave the U.S. Open a Roger Federer– Rafael Nadal match (whereas the other three majors, not many Federer–Nadal finals.) The least we could get is a Djokovic–Alcaraz final in New York.
The top 16
1. Carlos Alcaraz
2. Novak Djokovic
3. Daniil Medvedev
4. Holger Rune
5. Casper Ruud
6. Jannik Sinner
7. Stefanos Tsitsipas
8. Andrey Rublev
9. Taylor Fritz
10. Frances Tiafoe
11. Karen Khachnov
12. Alexander Zverev
13. Alex de Minaur
14. Tommy Paul
15. Félix Auger-Aliassime
16. Cam Norrie
A look at some lower seeds
17. Hubert Hurkacz
18. Lorenzo Musetti
21. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
23. Adrian Mannarino
24. Tallon Griekspoor
25. Alexander Bublik
26. Dan Evans
28. Chris Eubanks
Dark-horse corral
Sebastian Korda: A force at the previous hard-court major, he has scarcely been heard from since. Still, there is so much to like, including a measured, make-no-waves approach that recalls Pete Sampras.
Andy Murray: You know the rules: All former No. 1 players (and former champions) merit mention—even when they are 36, have a metal hip and are nursing ab injuries.
Ben Shelton: Crushed it at the last hard-court major. Has cooled since, which is fine. He’s 20.
Stan Wawrinka: You know the rules: All former champions merit mention.
Art Fils: The best player under 20 is in the top 50 … with a bullet. (Doesn’t turn 20 until June.)
Gaël Monfils: The magician still has some shakes of the wand.
Max Purcell: A doubles specialist no more, his strong summer run can continue.
First-round matches to watch
Fils vs. Griekspoor: A rough draw for both
Tiafoe vs. Learner Tien: It’s the present vs. the future
Bublik vs. Dominic Thiem: It’ll be interesting to see which version of Bublik shows up
Fritz vs. Stevie Johnson: Should have been at Carson
First-round upset
Mackenzie McDonald d. Auger-Aliassime
Semis
Alcaraz d. Medvedev
Djokovic d. Considerable surprise (Paul?)
Finals
Djokovic d. Alcaraz