Buccaneers and Tom Brady Could Pay Off Big After Rallying to Make Playoffs
Eight months ago, the Buccaneers were the second betting choice (+700) to win the Super Bowl behind the Bills (+650). After clinching the NFC South last weekend, the Bucs are +2000 to take home the league championship.
Over the past five weeks, three teams had Tom Brady on the mat in the fourth quarter with at least a 10-point lead.
The Saints led Tampa by 13 points with the ball and 5:31 left in the game. On fourth-and-1 on the Bucs’ 44-yard line, News Orleans decided to punt instead of keeping the ball out of Brady’s hands. He proceeded to lead Tampa to two touchdowns (91 and 63 yards) to keep the Buccaneers on top of their division.
After a pair of losses to the mighty 49ers and Bengals, the Cardinals had Tampa on the ropes again in the fourth quarter (16-6 with 10:47 left in the fourth quarter). After Brady led his team to a touchdown with 8:03 left, Trace McSorley made a bad pitch to Keaontay Ingram on third-and-1 at the Bucs’ 42-yard line at the 4:53 mark, giving Tampa the daylight needed to tie the game and win in overtime.
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Late in the second quarter in Week 17 with the Panthers leading by 14, on a third-and-5 play at the Bucs’ 37-yard line, the Panthers blew coverage versus Mike Evans (63-yard touchdown). Two plays later, a Sam Darnold fumble allowed Tampa to inch closer with a field goal with 1:09 left before halftime.
Carolina battled its way back to an 11-point lead early in the fourth quarter. Brady hit Evans for another 57-yard score four plays later, putting the Bucs back in the game. Seven minutes later, the Brady-Evans tandem connected for another 30-yard bomb, setting up their victory, a division title and a postseason trip.
The NFL had three chances to send Brady packing in 2022. Yet, somehow, he still has another chance to add another chapter to his famed legacy. Tampa lost its starting center (Ryan Jensen) before the season with a knee issue. He had a chance to return for the postseason, which would be a win for Brady’s passing window.
Tampa should face the Cowboys at home in the first round of the postseason. The Bucs manhandled Dallas on the road in Week 1 (19-3). The Cowboys are 4-3 on the road, while showing more defensive risk twice over the previous three weeks (74 combined points allowed to the Jaguars and Eagles). Dallas has 51 sacks but only three over the previous four games.
If Brady survived his first matchup, the Eagles look to be their next game barring no upsets. Philly is 13-1 with Jalen Hurts behind center. Its defense has a league-high 71 sacks, while allowing only 6.5 yards per pass attempt. The passing window for Brady will be a critical part of Tampa moving the ball versus the Eagles.
The final step to the big dance expects to go through the 49ers. San Francisco buried Tampa four weeks ago (35-7) when Brady passed for only 253 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. The 49ers have the best defense in the league in points allowed (264 points – 16.5 per game).
The road for Brady to the Super Bowl has challenges around every corner, never mind beating the top contenders in the AFC. For him to succeed, he needs one more second in his passing window to help his chances of scoring more touchdown passes. In addition, the Bucs must solve their disastrous running issue (366/1,224/5 – 3.3 yards per rush).
Brady has 30 or more completions in five straight games with 10 touchdowns. Despite all these pitfalls, the difference from 2021 to 2022 for Tampa is one more yard per rush and one more yard per pass attempt - or about 67 offensive yards per game. Basically, the march to the Super Bowl starts with better play by the Bucs’ offensive line.
At +2000 odds, Tampa is worth a leverage playoff dart. The Buccaneers may need some help on the way, but Brady knows how to win big games and he is 8-3 versus the NFC this season.
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