MLB Best Bets for Friday Night: Ride With the Rays at Least One More Game
By now, you have heard about the historic start to the season for the Tampa Bay Rays. They are a perfect 13-0, and what’s even more incredible? They have covered the run line in 12 of those 13 wins.
Yes, eventually, some bettor will make a significant profit when the underdog pulls off the upset win vs. Tampa Bay, but here’s why we are rolling with the Rays to cover the run line one more time Friday night:
On the surface, Toronto looks like the perfect club to finally upset the apple cart for the Rays, but I have a tough time backing the team that will be starting a pitcher with an ERA of over 11. I broke down why I’ve favored the over when Berrios pitches in my MLB betting trends article earlier this week, but now it also converges with the trend of the Rays covering the run line.
I’m not sure what exactly has happened with Berrios, but the fact is that hitters are seeing him well and hitting him hard -- and this goes back to last season, when he pitched to an ERA of 5.23. This year, his average exit velocity allowed is in the bottom 20% of the league and his hard-hit rate is in the bottom 14%. Statcast says his xERA is 5.98, so we should expect the Rays to get their knocks in.
On the other side of this ballgame, Drew Rasmussen will get the start for the Rays. Rasmussen has not allowed a single earned run over 13 innings pitched this season while striking out 15. Statcast has his xERA at 1.19.
It’s a mismatch with the Rays also having a far superior bullpen.
Offensively, either team can erupt for plenty of runs in a given game, but the Rays’ 7.77 runs per game this year is more than two more than the Jays’ 5.58.
Eventually, the streak has to stop, but it won’t tonight.
Bet: Rays -1.5 (+115)
Weekend winners
Here are some players to consider for DFS lineups and hitting props this weekend:
Justin Turner (LAD)
Turner has Tyler Anderson’s number. In 34 career at-bats, Turner is batting .500 vs. his former teammate. I’d have him in my DFS lineups this Saturday.
Jose Abreu (HOU)
Abreu is hitting .364 and slugging 1.455 vs. Andrew Heaney. He has four hits and four homers vs. Texas’ pitcher in only 11 at-bats. If you’ve never bet a HR prop or a total bases prop, this Sunday feels like the time to do it.
George Springer (TOR)
We talked about a mismatch for the Jays pitchers on Friday, and it looks like another mismatch on Sunday with Alek Manoah vs. Shane McClanahan, as Manoah has gotten off to a shaky start to the season. But, I may be willing to bet on the Jays to pull off an upset. One reason why? George Springer. Springer has taken McClanahan deep three times in only 12 at-bats, while batting .417.
Pete Alonso (NYM)
Alonso is crushing lefties this season with an average of .409, four home runs and nine RBIs. On Sunday, the Mets faceoff with Oakalnd and southpaw JP Sears.
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