MLB Best Bets: No Need to Stop Playing That White Sox-Royals Over

Two bad bullpens equal one safe bet, plus a pair of player props.

Author:
Jennifer Piacenti
Publish date:
May 9, 2023

In this story:

Yesterday we took the over on 8.5 runs in the White Sox-Royals game, and we’re doing it all over again Tuesday.

Not only did yesterday’s game go over, it went way over. In fact, the Royals hit the over on their own – winning by a score of 12-5.

Even though Dylan Cease took the loss, he did exceed his K prop of 5.5, ending with exactly six strikeouts. Unfortunately, the White Sox lost the game and spoiled our three-leg parlay.

The reason why we pounded the over Monday was simple: bad bullpens. And guess what? They are no better today. White Sox relievers now officially have the second-highest ERA at 6.37 while the Royals have the fourth-highest at 5.24.

Now, let’s talk about the starters. Lucas Giolito gets the nod for Chicago. Giolito has been solid to start the season with an ERA of 3.51, and though his fastball doesn’t have a lot of zip, he should be able to give the Sox six or seven strong innings. The Royals have a .276 batting average vs. Giolito with a .976 OPS.

On the other side of this game is Jordan Lyles. Lyles has an ERA of 6.69 this year, with an xERA of 5.99. The White Sox should be able to put up some runs on the righty, who has an expected SLG in the bottom 8% of the league. This White Sox club is batting .314 vs. Lyles.

Kansas City Royals catcher Salvador Perez (13) celebrates after hitting a two-run home run. — Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports

Offensively, the Royals are scoring 4.11 runs per game this year while the White Sox are scoring 4.44. Both teams scored more than their average yesterday.

Want more reasons to go over today?

Games have gone over the run total 52.9% of the time for Kansas City (18-16-2) and 60.6% of the time for Chicago (20-13-2) this year.

Even better: The line for today’s game is set at 9, leaving the opportunity for a push.

Giolito’s K prop is set at 5.5 and it’s plus money to go over. I’m willing to take that bet with the +105 payout and the Royals’ 23.5% K rate -- especially since they will need him to go deep into this game after depleting the bullpen on Monday.

As for a hitter prop, I’ll be looking at Salvador Perez over 1.5 total bases. In his 31 career at-bats vs. vs. Giolito, Perez has four homers and a batting average of .419 with a 1.323 OPS.