MLB Best Bet: Banking on a Pair of High-Scoring Teams
Two of the hottest-hitting teams in baseball square off Friday night, and so -- you guessed it -- we are betting on the over!
The Rangers host the Dodgers tonight in Arlington. The Rangers lead MLB with 5.81 runs scored per game this season, while the Dodgers come in third in MLB -- just behind the Braves -- with 5.55 runs scored per game. Nothing has slowed down in July for either team, as they are both averaging more than five runs per game this month.
Neither team will be starting a verifiable ace tonight, and that has us looking at the bats.
Andrew Heaney gets the start at home for the Rangers. The lefty has a 4.43 ERA this season; his barrel rate and average exit velocity are in the bottom 17% of the league. That could spell trouble vs. a Dodgers offense that owns a .779 OPS (fifth) and .227 ISO (second) vs. left-handed pitching this season. Heaney’s ERA at home this season is 4.75 as opposed to his road ERA of 3.99, suggesting the visiting team should be able to put a few on the board. The Dodgers should be able to take advantage of his 42.5% fly ball rate.
And then there’s the Rangers bullpen….
The Rangers have more improvements to make even after trading for Aroldis Chapman. For the season, the Rangers relievers own the seventh-highest ERA while the 54% save conversion rate ranks bottom-five in the league. For July, the Rangers bullpen has an ERA of 4.92.
On the other side of this one, Tony Gonsolin gets the start for the Dodgers. Gonsolin’s 3.88 ERA should be closer to 4.88, according to xERA at Statcast. He has a 5.55 ERA across his last seven starts, and the Texas bats will be able to put up runs at home.
Look for Freddie Freeman, who has more home runs vs. lefties (10) than righties this season, Will Smith, who is batting .310 vs. southpaws, and James Outman, who is batting .303 vs. lefties to all be active on the basepaths tonight for the Dodgers. Mookie Betts is also hitting .280 with 10 home runs vs. left-handed pitching.
For the Rangers, look for Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, and Adolis Garcia to continue to mash at home.
Games at Globe Life Field are averaging 10.54 runs this year. Let’s smash this over.
The Bet: Dodgers-Rangers Over 9.5 (-105)
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