Projecting college hoops' leaders in scoring, rebounding and assists

Tyler Haws and Frank Kaminsky lead SI's top projected scorers (in raw and efficiency-based metrics) respectively. Top projected rebounders and assisters are also listed.

How do you project a college basketball season?

Preseason polls are an average of perceptions -- of teams' returning talent and key additions, and their coaching staff's ability to convert it all into wins. Sports Illustrated's preview-issue rankings have always relied on that human-perception model, but this season, we've opted for something more scientific. Economist Dan Hanner has spent four seasons working on a statistical projection model that works from the bottom up, projecting advanced statistics -- including offensive rating, possession usage and rebounding rates -- for all Division I players, and using the results to project overall team performance. Hanner's model simulates the season 10,000 times, accounting for fluctuations in individual performance and health, and ranks teams according to their median performance. We'll reveal the entire 1-351 team rankings on Nov. 4 in SI and on SI.com, and in the lead-up, examine the model's most interesting individual-stat projections.

This is the first season Hanner, working with SI's Luke Winn, has attempted to forecast (and publish) raw points-, rebounds- and assists-per-game totals for every player in the top 11 conferences. The player projections are based on many factors: past advanced-statistical performance in the context of more than a decade of player data; the predictive power of recruiting rankings, both on immediate freshman performance and longer-term development; the quality of teammates and coaches; specific coaches' playing-time distribution tendencies; the estimated pace at which a team will play; and intel from coaches on how their rotations will be structured, which helps us better understand how many minutes and shots will be available to each player.

The first data-drop includes SI's projection of the nation's top 100 scorers according to raw points per game, as well as lists of the top 20 high-usage, high efficiency scorers, the top 20 rebounders, and the top 20 assist leaders. In the coming days we'll roll out our forecast of the top-scoring freshmen, the top-scoring transfers and the biggest breakout scorers. (Remember that these numbers exist within a team context; you won't find any Kentucky players here, because their proposed platoon system -- in which 10 players could each play around 20 minutes per game -- led to our system capping their top scorer, Aaron Harrison, at 11.4 points per game.)

Rank	name	class	pos.	team	ppg	ORtg	Poss (%)
1	Tyler Haws	Sr.	SG	BYU	24.6	118	29
2	Chasson Randle	Sr.	SG	Stanford	20.0	115	26
3	Joseph Young	Sr.	SG	Oregon	19.7	130	24
4	DaVonte Lacy	Sr.	SG	Washington St.	19.4	112	27
5	D.J. Balentine	Jr.	SG	Evansville	19.4	110	30
6	Jarvis Summers	Sr.	PG	Ole Miss	18.8	114	27
7	Myles Mack	Sr.	PG	Rutgers	18.8	114	26
8	Terran Petteway	Jr.	SG	Nebraska	18.6	104	31
9	Georges Niang	Jr.	PF	Iowa St.	18.4	114	28
10	Olivier Hanlan	Jr.	PG	Boston College	18.2	113	28

It was only four seasons ago that a BYU senior shooting guard was the nation's leading scorer and most talked-about player: Jimmer Fredette. The Cougar who could take that crown this season is far less famous: Tyler Haws, who was the country's sixth-leading scorer in 2013-14, on a team that lost its NCAA tournament opener to Oregon. Three of the players ahead of Haws graduated, one turned pro early and the other, Antoine Mason, transferred from Niagara to Auburn, where we forecast a scoring drop-off due to the increased level of competition. Haws' high-volume shooting tendency, reasonable efficiency and BYU's fast tempo makes him the most likely No. 1. The other prime contenders are also senior two-guards from the West Coast. Stanford's Chasson Randle (2) is another under-the-radar star who may have to shoulder a bigger offensive load now that Cardinal co-star Dwight Powell is in the NBA, and Oregon's Joseph Young (3) is a high-efficiency shooter/transition scorer on a roster that was decimated by transfers and player-ineligibility issues.

rank	name	class	pos.	team	PPG	OTRG	poss (%)
11	Jerian Grant	Sr.	PG	Notre Dame	18.1	124	26
12	D'Angelo Harrison	Sr.	SG	St. John's	18.0	114	26
13	D.J. Newbill	Sr.	SG	Penn State	17.8	106	27
14	K.T. Harrell	Sr.	SG	Auburn	17.8	109	28
15	Kellen Dunham	Jr.	SG	Butler	17.6	108	25
16	Brandon Clark	Sr.	PG	Santa Clara	17.4	112	27
17	Jared Brownridge	So.	SG	Santa Clara	17.4	118	23
18	Brad Waldow	Sr.	PF	Saint Mary's	17.4	120	27
19	Marcus Paige	Jr.	PG	North Carolina	17.2	120	22
20	Marcus Foster	So.	SG	Kansas State	17.2	105	27

Notre Dame's Jerian Grant (11) is somewhat of a forgotten man after missing last season's final 19 games due to an academic-related suspension. Grant was allowed to re-enroll at the school and, assuming he's the same player we saw early in '13-14, should battle with Boston College's Olivier Hanlan (10) and North Carolina's Marcus Paige (19) for the ACC scoring title. Santa Clara, meanwhile, looks poised to have the country's highest-scoring backcourt duo in senior point guard Brandon Clark (16) and sophomore shooting guard Jared Brownridge (17).

Rank	name	class	POs.	team	ppg	otrg	poss (%)
21	Evan Payne	So.	SG	Loyola Marymount	17.2	100	29
22	Jon Severe	So.	SG	Fordham	17.2	98	29
23	D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera	Jr.	SG	Georgetown	17.2	122	24
24	Yogi Ferrell	Jr.	PG	Indiana	17.1	120	25
25	Daniel Bejarano	Sr.	SG	Colorado St.	17.1	113	26
26	Johnny Dee	Sr.	SG	San Diego	17.1	120	23
27	Buddy Hield	Jr.	SG	Oklahoma	17.0	118	24
28	Le'Bryan Nash	Sr.	SF	Oklahoma St.	16.9	109	25
29	James Woodard	Jr.	SG	Tulsa	16.7	120	22
30	Juwan Staten	Sr.	PG	West Virginia	16.6	114	26

With Doug McDermott gone to the Bulls, the Big East should have a more open scoring-title competition between St. John's guard D'Angelo Harrison (No. 12), Butler guard Kellen Dunham (15) and Georgetown guard D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera (23). And with Oklahoma State missing its two leading scorers from last season, Marcus Smart and Markel Brown, Cowboys guards LeBryan Nash (28) and Phil Forte (36) are both projected to become 16-point-plus per-game contributors.

Rank	name	class	pos.	team	PPg	otrg	poss (%)
31	Kendall Anthony	Sr.	PG	Richmond	16.3	110	26
32	Stacy Davis	Jr.	PF	Pepperdine	16.3	108	27
33	Will Cummings	Sr.	PG	Temple	16.3	110	25
34	Seth Tuttle	Sr.	PF	Northern Iowa	16.3	120	27
35	Treveon Graham	Sr.	SF	VCU	16.2	116	26
36	Phil Forte	Jr.	SG	Oklahoma St.	16.2	124	19
37	Perry Ellis	Jr.	PF	Kansas	16.1	127	23
38	Jahlil Okafor	Fr.	C	Duke	16.1	121	24
39	Rashad Vaughn	Fr.	SG	UNLV	16.0	118	23
40	Andre Hollins	Sr.	SG	Minnesota	15.9	117	24

The first freshmen appear! Duke's Jahlil Okafor (38), the No. 1 overall recruit in our aggregate Class of 2014 rankings, is a legit national player-of-the-year candidate. He's stepping into a perfect opportunity, with no one blocking him at the center position in the Blue Devils' rotation, two efficient point guards helping him in Quinn Cook and Tyus Jones, and plenty of shots available after the departure of Jabari Parker. UNLV's Rashad Vaughn (39) is the top talent in a huge Rebels recruiting class, and they need him to inherit the shots freed up by Bryce DeJean-Jones' transfer to Iowa State.

rank	name	class	pos.	team	ppg	otrg	poss (%)
41	Craig Sword	Jr.	SG	Mississippi St.	15.9	99	29
42	Jordan Sibert	Sr.	SG	Dayton	15.8	117	22
43	Codi Miller-McIntyre	Jr.	PG	Wake Forest	15.7	106	25
44	Rayvonte Rice	Sr.	SG	Illinois	15.6	110	26
45	Anthony Drmic	Sr.	SF	Boise St.	15.6	118	24
46	Patrick Holloway	Jr.	SG	George Mason	15.5	109	22
47	Sindarius Thornwell	So.	SG	South Carolina	15.5	107	27
48	Derrick Marks	Sr.	PG	Boise St.	15.4	108	30
49	Charles Mann	Jr.	PG	Georgia	15.4	101	29
50	Jordan Loveridge	Jr.	SF	Utah	15.3	111	24

Boise State, which was on the outside of the NCAA bubble last season after making the tournament in 2013, returns the projected Nos. 2 and 3 scorers in the Mountain West in wing Anthony Drmic (45) and point guard Derrick Marks (48). Utah, meanwhile, has two projected 15-plus point per-game scorers in Jordan Loveridge (50) and Delon Wright (57), who could help the Utes reach their first NCAA tournament since 2009.

Continue reading: 51-100 scorers, top rebounders and leading assist men

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Wichita State's Fred VanVleet (L) and Ron Baker are both projected as top-90 scorers.

Peter G. Aiken/Getty

rank	name	class	pos.	team	ppg	otrg	poss (%)
51	Trevor Cooney	Jr.	SG	Syracuse	15.3	119	20
52	JayVaughn Pinkston	Sr.	PF	Villanova	15.2	120	26
53	Cezar Guerrero	Jr.	PG	Fresno St.	15.1	111	25
54	Sheldon McClellan	Jr.	SF	Miami (Fla.)	15.1	114	24
55	Josh Scott	Jr.	PF	Colorado	15.1	121	21
56	Anthony Beane Jr.	Jr.	SG	Southern Illinois	15.1	112	22
57	Delon Wright	Sr.	PG	Utah	15.1	121	22
58	Aaron White	Sr.	PF	Iowa	15.0	124	21
59	Montrezl Harrell	Jr.	PF	Louisville	15.0	122	23
60	Kevin Bailey	Sr.	SF	Portland	15.0	109	28

Trevor Cooney (51) should be the leading scorer by default for offensively challenged Syracuse. The model projects the junior shooting guard to increase his average from 12.1 to 15.3 points per game. All-America candidate Montrezl Harrell (59) is projected to average 15.0 points for Louisville; while he's the Cards' lone frontcourt scoring threat, he'll have to share shots with the backcourt duo of Chris Jones and Terry Rozier, both of whom are projected to score 12.5 points per game.

rank	name	Class	pos.	Team	ppg	otrg	poss (%)
61	Frank Kaminsky	Sr.	C	Wisconsin	15.0	126	25
62	Kyle Collinsworth	Jr.	PG	BYU	15.0	109	24
63	Marcus Marshall	Jr.	PG	Missouri St.	14.8	115	25
64	LaDontae Henton	Sr.	SF	Providence	14.7	115	21
65	E.C. Matthews	So.	SG	Rhode Island	14.7	106	25
66	Kyan Anderson	Sr.	PG	TCU	14.6	107	25
67	Nigel Williams-Goss	So.	PG	Washington	14.5	111	24
68	Ryan Boatright	Sr.	PG	Connecticut	14.5	110	24
69	Darrun Hillard	Sr.	SG	Villanova	14.5	116	23
70	Ron Baker	Jr.	SG	Wichita St.	14.3	124	23

Wisconsin center Frank Kaminsky (61), one of the preseason frontrunners for the Wooden and Naismith awards, has a 15.0-point projection. While the Badgers' pace of play limits its leaders' raw point totals, Kaminsky should be regarded as one of the country's most efficient, high-usage scorers. At UConn, the system projects senior point guard Ryan Boatright (68) to average 14.5 points; freshman Daniel Hamilton and N.C. State transfer Rodney Purvis are the other Huskies who could reach double-digits.

rank	name	class	pos.	team	ppg	otrg	poss (%)
71	Dezmine Wells	Sr.	SG	Maryland	14.2	112	25
72	Kethan Savage	Jr.	SG	George Washington	14.2	107	25
73	Kevin Pangos	Sr.	PG	Gonzaga	14.2	127	20
74	Zak Irvin	So.	SF	Michigan	14.1	121	21
75	Milton Doyle	So.	PG	Loyal Chicago	14.1	98	30
76	J.J. Avila	Sr.	PF	Colorado St.	14.0	113	27
77	Pat Connaughton	Sr.	SF	Notre Dame	14.0	127	19
78	Aaron Thomas	Jr.	SG	Florida St.	13.9	107	25
79	Jalen Jones	Sr.	SF	Texas A&M	13.9	109	24
80	Michael Perez	Sr.	PG	Nevada	13.8	105	21

Gonzaga point guard Kevin Pangos (73) has made a career out of efficient, moderate-usage scoring, and that should continue this season. We project him to crack the top 100 at 14.2 points per game and be the leader of a Zags offense that could have four other double-digit scorers in Kyle Wiltjer, Gary Bell Jr., Przemek Karnowski and Byron Wesley. At Michigan, our projections see wing Zak Irvin (74) making a big jump from 6.7 points per game as a freshman to 14.1 as a sophomore.

rank	name	class	pos.	team	ppg	otrg	poss (%)
81	Jonathan Stark	So.	PG	Tulane	13.8	109	24
82	Quenton DeCosey	Jr.	SG	Temple	13.8	107	22
83	Sam Dekker	Jr.	SF	Wisconsin	13.8	105	22
84	Thomas Van Der Mars	Sr.	PF	Portland	13.8	121	22
85	Daishon Knight	Sr.	SG	Illinois St.	13.8	98	27
86	Louis Dabney	Jr.	SG	Tulane	13.7	103	28
87	Fred VanVleet	Jr.	PG	Wichita St.	13.7	130	21
88	Jordan Mickey	So.	PF	LSU	13.7	112	20
89	Larry Nance Jr.	Sr.	PF	Wyoming	13.7	114	24
90	DeAndre Mathieu	Sr.	PG	Minnesota	13.7	109	23

Fred VanVleet (87) isn't forecasted as Wichita State's leading scorer -- that would be Ron Baker (70) -- but its senior point guard is projected to put up an incredibly efficient 13.7 points per game with an offensive rating of 130, while also dishing out 5.5 assists. The system has Larry Nance Jr. (89), who's coming back from a February ACL tear, regaining his status as Wyoming's leading scorer, but that's contingent on a full return to health.

RANK	NAME	CLASS	POS.	TEAM	PPG	OTRG	POSS (%)
91	Tyrone Wallace	Jr.	PG	California	13.6	110	22
92	Kadeem Jack	Sr.	PF	Rutgers	13.6	105	24
93	Nic Moore	Jr.	PG	SMU	13.6	117	21
94	A.J. Hammons	Jr.	C	Purdue	13.6	106	25
95	Billy Garrett	So.	PG	DePaul	13.6	108	24
96	Adam Smith	Jr.	SG	Virginia Tech	13.6	106	25
97	Cady Lalanne	Sr.	PF	Massachusetts	13.6	111	21
98	Jerrell Wright	Sr.	PF	La Salle	13.6	110	27
99	Matt Carlino	Sr.	PG	Marquette	13.5	106	23
100	Brian Sullivan	Jr.	SG	Davidson	13.5	112	22

Even though SMU won't have super-recruit Emmanuel Mudiay -- he chose the Mustangs but opted for a pro deal in China instead -- it has an efficient lead guard in Nic Moore (93), who's projected to score 13.6 points per game. In order to surprise anyone in the Big Ten, Purdue probably needs a huge year out of 7-foot junior A.J. Hammons (94), but our system projects a modest 2.8-point jump from his sophomore year average, to 13.6 points per game.

Continue reading: Top efficient, high-usage scorers; leading rebounders and assist men

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Jerian Grant was playing at an elite level last season before an academic suspension sidelined him. He projects strongly in our raw and efficiency-based projected stats.

Joe Robbins/Getty

Projecting the most efficient, high-usage scorers

Anyone familiar with advanced stats (or really, basketball at all) knows that the top 100 scorers in raw points per game aren't the 100 most valuable scorers in the game. That's why we've broken out a separate projection chart of the 20 most efficient scorers whom the system expects to use at least 24 percent of their team's possessions, thus making them "high-usage" players.

This is where Kaminsky's value to Wisconsin really becomes evident. He's projected to use a quarter of the Badgers' possessions at a 1.259-points-per clip -- the best of anyone in the country. Okafor's All-America candidacy also becomes clearer, and this suggests that pundits should be talking more about Saint Mary's senior forward Brad Waldow in the preseason:

rank	name	class	team	pred. volume	pred. otrg
1	Frank Kaminsky	Sr.	Wisconsin	25%	125.9
2	Jerian Grant	Sr.	Notre Dame	26%	124.0
3	Jahlil Okafor	Fr.	Duke	24%	120.6
4	Brad Waldow	Sr.	Saint Mary's	27%	120.0
5	Seth Tuttle	Sr.	Northern Iowa	27%	120.0
6	Yogi Ferrell	Jr.	Indiana	25%	120.0
7	JayVaughn Pinkston	Sr.	Villanova	26%	119.7
8	Tyler Haws	Sr.	BYU	29%	118.2
9	Anthony Drmic	Sr.	Boise St.	24%	117.9
10	Treveon Graham	Sr.	VCU	26%	115.6
11	Chasson Randle	Sr.	Stanford	26%	115.4
12	Joshua Smith	Sr.	Georgetown	26%	114.9
13	Marcus Marshall	Jr.	Missouri St.	25%	114.7
14	Georges Niang	Jr.	Iowa St.	28%	114.5
15	Jarvis Summers	Sr.	Mississippi	27%	114.3
16	Larry Nance Jr.	Sr.	Wyoming	24%	114.3
17	Juwan Staten	Sr.	West Virginia	26%	114.2
18	D'Angelo Harrison	Sr.	St. John's	26%	114.1
19	Myles Mack	Sr.	Rutgers	26%	113.6
20	Daniel Bejarano	Sr.	Colorado St.	26%	113.5

Projecting the top 20 rebounders

Many of the college game's elite rebounders (Tennessee's Jarnell Stokes, Kentucky's Julius Randle, Boise State's Ryan Watkins, etc.) either turned pro or graduated after last season, and thus no player from the top 11 conferences is projected to average double-digit boards. UMass senior Cady Lalanne, who averaged 7.9 rebounds last season, is the system's top pick. Three players who made the most-efficient high-usage scorers list -- Okafor, Waldow and Northern Iowa's Seth Tuttle -- also appear among the top glass-cleaners.

rank	player	class	team	rpg
1	Cady Lalanne	Sr.	Massachusetts	9.2
2	Nate Austin	Sr.	BYU	9.1
3	Jahlil Okafor	Fr.	Duke	9.1
4	Steve Zack	Sr.	La Salle	8.8
5	Ricardo Gathers	Jr.	Baylor	8.7
6	Egidijus Mockevicius	Jr.	Evansville	8.7
7	Ryan Rhoomes	Jr.	Fordham	8.6
8	Josh Scott	Jr.	Colorado	8.5
9	A.J. Hammons	Jr.	Purdue	8.5
10	Kameron Woods	Sr.	Butler	8.5
11	Ryan Spangler	Jr.	Oklahoma	8.5
12	Brad Waldow	Sr.	Saint Mary's	8.5
13	Seth Tuttle	Sr.	Northern Iowa	8.4
14	Myles Turner	Fr.	Texas	8.2
15	Kennedy Meeks	So.	North Carolina	8.2
16	Domantas Sabonis	Fr.	Gonzaga	8.1
17	Jordan Mickey	So.	LSU	8.0
18	Stacy Davis	Jr.	Pepperdine	7.9
19	A.J. West	Sr.	Nevada	7.9
20	David Kravish	Sr.	California	7.8

Projecting the top 20 assist leaders

Notre Dame's Grant isn’t just a high-volume, high-efficiency scorer: He's also projected to chase the national assist title, which makes him a strong All-ACC candidate. Christopher Anderson, a senior point guard at San Diego who averaged 5.0, 5.7 and 6.2 assists during his first three seasons, is forecasted to be the No. 1 distributor in our 11-conference sample. VanVleet's presence in the top five, combined with his low turnover rate and smart shot selection, is what makes him an All-America candidate. Duke's Tyus Jones, a five-star point guard recruit, is projected as freshman who will have the most assists -- with plenty of them expected to go to Okafor.

rank	player	class	team	apg
1	Christopher Anderson	Sr.	San Diego	6.5
2	Jerian Grant	Sr.	Notre Dame	6.2
3	L.J. Rose	Jr.	Houston	5.8
4	Matt Carlino	Sr.	Marquette	5.7
5	Fred VanVleet	Jr.	Wichita St.	5.5
6	Juwan Staten	Sr.	West Virginia	5.2
7	T.J. McConnell	Sr.	Arizona	5.1
8	Shannon Scott	Sr.	Ohio St.	5.1
9	Tyus Jones	Fr.	Duke	4.9
10	Austin Chatman	Sr.	Creighton	4.9
11	Delon Wright	Sr.	Utah	4.9
12	Nic Moore	Jr.	SMU	4.8
13	Anthony Collins	Sr.	South Florida	4.8
14	Jeremy Major	So.	Pepperdine	4.8
15	Alex Caruso	Jr.	Texas A&M	4.8
16	James Robinson	Jr.	Pittsburgh	4.7
17	Myles Mack	Sr.	Rutgers	4.6
18	Marcus Paige	Jr.	North Carolina	4.6
19	Kenny Chery	Sr.	Baylor	4.6
20	Jarvis Summers	Sr.	Missisippi	4.6