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2013 NFL Mock Draft 4.0

Photo: Kathy Willens/AP

Geno Smith isn't a perfect prospect, but it looks more and more likely he'll be the only first-round QB.

If you're a first-round quarterback hopeful in this year's draft, it wasn't a good week. Not at all. Several teams in the quarterback-desperate top 10 perhaps decided they won't be buyers in this year's first round. No. 3 Oakland went out and wisely traded for Matt Flynn. No. 7 Arizona did Oakland a favor and took Carson Palmer off its hands (for practically nothing). And No. 8 Buffalo agreed to terms with ex-Cardinal starter Kevin Kolb, giving itself a veteran arm/option.

Kolb's deal doesn't preclude the Bills from taking a first-round quarterback, and I'm still projecting Buffalo to do just that by picking West Virginia's Geno Smith. But the Raiders and Cardinals pretty clearly won't be selecting quarterbacks in the first round, and I've come around to thinking the Jaguars aren't quite ready to forsake Blaine Gabbert and take that dive as well. At least not at the first-round level of investment.

Who does that leave? Maybe the No. 4 Eagles, but it's not a given with Michael Vick and Nick Foles both back in Philly. Possibly the No. 9 Jets, but it would be an upset given their crowded QB depth chart, and their many needs elsewhere on the roster. As for the No. 6 Browns, they seem set with Brandon Weeden backed up by newly arrived Jason Campbell, for at least 2013.

So it's Buffalo, and maybe then only in the second round, or trading back into the late first round with Syracuse's Ryan Nassib or USC's Matt Barkley as the object of its desire. After all, we've had a team trade up in the draft to take a first-round quarterback for three years in a row (Washington for RGIII at No. 2 last year; Jacksonville to No. 10 for Gabbert in 2011; and Denver to No. 25 for Tim Tebow in 2010).

With 22 days remaining until the draft begins, the first-round quarterback market looks like it'll be considerably less active than it appeared a week ago.

KING: What QB movement means for draft-day deals

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